Oklahoma State vs West Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

• The West Virginia Mountaineers are a -1.5 point favorite vs. the Oklahoma State Cowboys
• Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
• TV Channel: FS1

Oklahoma State (2-1) visit Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium to take on West Virginia (3-0) on Sep. 26 in Morgantown, WV. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 pm.

The West Virginia Mountaineers are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-108).

The Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia Over/Under is 59.5 total points.

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Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Oklahoma State vs West Virginia Prediction:

The winning team model predicts West Virginia will win this game with 50.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the West Virginia Mountaineers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Oklahoma State vs West Virginia Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts West Virginia will cover the spread with 50.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Oklahoma State Best Bets Today

• Oklahoma State have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.85 Units / 29% ROI)
• Oklahoma State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Oklahoma State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.95 Units / 54% ROI)
• Oklahoma State has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
• Oklahoma State has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.80 Units / 51% ROI)

West Virginia Best Bets Today

• West Virginia has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
• West Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.50 Units / 35% ROI)
• West Virginia has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.95 Units / 59% ROI)
• West Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• West Virginia have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)

Oklahoma State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oklahoma State Cowboys is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

• Oklahoma State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.8 Units / 109.68% ROI
• Oklahoma State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.25 Units / -37.31% ROI
• Oklahoma State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.69% ROI

West Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

West Virginia Mountaineers is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

• West Virginia is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 27.19% ROI
• West Virginia is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
• West Virginia is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI

Oklahoma State: Keys to the Game vs. West Virginia

Oklahoma State is 1-9 (.100) when rushing more than 30 times this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .672

Oklahoma State is 1-10 (.091) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– 8th-worst in FBS; Average: .455

Oklahoma State was 2-5 (.286) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Oklahoma State is winless (0-7) when throwing at least 1 interception this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .436

West Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Oklahoma State

West Virginia is 2-8 (.200) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– 7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .510

West Virginia is 1-6 (.143) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .581

West Virginia was 2-6 (.250) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-23rd-worst in FBS; Average: .460

West Virginia was 2-7 (.222) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .443

Matchup Notes for Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia

West Virginia’s offense threw for 2,267 passing yards in 12 games (just 188.9 YPG) last season — 35th-worst among FBS offenses. Oklahoma State’s defense allowed 252.0 passing yards per game last season — 16th-worst among FBS defenses.

West Virginia’s QBs threw for 2,238 passing yards in 12 games (just 186.5 YPG) last season — 31st-worst among FBS teams. Oklahoma State’s defense allowed 252.0 passing yards per game last season — 2nd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

West Virginia’s WRs has averaged 14.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among Big 12 WRs. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed 12.8 RAC since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among P5 defenses.

Oklahoma State’s TEs had 17 receptions in 12 games (just 1.4 per game) last season — worst among Big 12 TEs. West Virginia’s defense allowed 21.1 receptions per game last season — 2nd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Oklahoma State’s QBs threw for 1,662 passing yards in 11 games (just 151.1 YPG) last season — 13th-worst among FBS teams. West Virginia’s defense allowed 265.4 passing yards per game last season — worst among Big 12 defenses.

Oklahoma State’s TEs had 17 receptions in 12 games (just 1.4 per game) last season — worst among P5 TEs. West Virginia’s defense allowed 21.1 receptions per game last season — 22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma State Offensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma State TEs have averaged just 3.0 yards per reception (3 yards/1 catches) on 3rd and long this season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.4

Oklahoma State have thrown one TD on 85 pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season– 8th-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.9

Oklahoma State have thrown 7 TDs on 365 pass attempts (one TD every 52.1 Pass Attempts) this season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.6

Oklahoma State Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 29.7 receptions (208 Rec/7 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.0

Oklahoma State TEs averaged just 3.0 yards per reception (3 yards/1 catches) on 3rd and long last season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.4

West Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends

West Virginia WRs have no receptions on 4 targets in the Red Zone this season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 55%

West Virginia’s offense threw for 2,267 passing yards in 12 games (just 188.9 YPG) last season — 35th-worst among FBS offenses. Oklahoma State’s defense allowed 252.0 passing yards per game last season — 16th-worst among FBS defenses.

West Virginia WRs have averaged just 0 yards per target (0 yards/4 targets) in the Red Zone this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.1

West Virginia WRs have no receptions on 4 targets in the Red Zone this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%

West Virginia’s QBs threw for 2,238 passing yards in 12 games (just 186.5 YPG) last season — 31st-worst among FBS teams. Oklahoma State’s defense allowed 252.0 passing yards per game last season — 2nd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Oklahoma State Defensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma State has no interceptions and 13 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in the Big 12; Average: 6.4

Oklahoma State forced 4 fumbles on 477 carries (119.2 Carries Per Fumble) last season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 41.8

Oklahoma State allowed 500.6 yards from scrimmage per game last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 373.8

Oklahoma State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 13 of 339 attempts (4%) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 2%

Oklahoma State has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 50 of 339 attempts (15%) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%

West Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends

West Virginia did not record a sack (47 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

West Virginia allowed 5.2 touchdowns per interception (26 TDs allowed, and 5 INT) last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 1.7

West Virginia allowed passes of 40+ yards on 19 of 386 attempts (5%) last season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 2%

West Virginia intercepted 5 of 386 attempts (77.2 pass attempts per int.) last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 32.7

West Virginia allowed 5.2 touchdowns per interception (26 TDs allowed, and 5 INT) last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6

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