Here Comes the Preseason Oregon Football Steam

Now that it’s officially mid-August and college football games are just a few Saturdays away, the odds market is beginning to take shape.

That’s especially true in the futures department, where months of quiet inactivity are finally giving way to a steady increase in established positions. And when sharp money starts to weigh in, that’s when the markets begin to shift. 

In that vein, I picked up on a pair of interesting movements in this week’s college football odds market. Both point toward a sharp appetite to bet on a big season for the Oregon Ducks. 

The first movement comes in BetMGM’s 2026 College Football Playoff odds market, where Oregon was adjusted down from -275 to -325. 

For a team that’s already a big favorite to make the field, a 50-cent movement is significant, but it’s not necessarily a showstopper. It’s the market context that makes this more interesting to me. Indiana was the biggest favorite to make the playoff at-300, with Oregon on par with Ohio State at the -275 number. 

The adjustment to -325 not only says that Oregon is a clearer Big Ten favorite, but it crowns the Ducks as the team from a power conference most likely to play in this year’s CFP. 

The second movement comes in the Heisman Trophy odds market, where veteran Ducks quarterback Dante Moore was adjusted down to +1000, putting him squarely at fourth in the table behind CJ Carr, Arch Manning, and Trinidad Chambliss. 

Previously, Moore had been +1200 – longer than Julian Sayin (+1100) and Darian Mensah (+1100), and at parity with Josh Hoover and Jeremiah Smith. 

Focusing narrowly on the Heisman market, this is the seemingly annual preseason steam on the Oregon quarterback. Dante Moore got a similar treatment last year, albeit farther down the table. I wrote about Dillon Gabriel’s August Heisman bump in 2024. 

Oregon produced Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota in 2014 and has produced other top contenders since then thanks to its offensive pedigree and reliable team speed. In a detail that’s lost to history, Bo Nix could have easily walked away from college football as the Heisman Trophy winner in 2023, if only the Ducks could have found a way to beat Washington. On the eve of the Pac-12 championship, the odds quite liked Nix!

Given all that, the love for an experienced quarterback like Moore is understandable. 

Taken together with the CFP odds movement, there’s clearly some bullish activity right now around the Oregon football odds. The Ducks made the CFP semifinals last year, so projecting them as a top contender this year is certainly not a leap of logic. 

If there’s one cause for concern, it’s the departure of former OC Will Stein and former DC Tosh Lupoi, as both took head coaching jobs after last season. But Drew Mehringer gives the Ducks offense plenty of staffing continuity, and the roster is loaded with talent. The defensive backfield, in particular, looks very strong this year.

So, yes, somewhere in America, a smart bettor is pounding Oregon futures. This is your unofficial green light to tee off on the Ducks.

Yes @ +165 Oregon @ +2000