Penn St vs Michigan St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 14, 2025, 11:35 AM

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Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith, left, talks with chief of staff, Dan Van De Riet, right, before the first half in an NCAA college football game against Illinois, Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in Champaign, Ill.

(AP Photo/Matt Marton)

Penn St is a -7.5 point favorite vs. Michigan St
Penn State vs. Michigan State Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
TV Channel: CBS | PAR+

Penn State (3-6) visit Spartan Stadium to take on Michigan State (3-6) on Nov. 15 in East Lansing, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

Penn St is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-105).

The Penn State vs. Michigan State Over/Under is 49.5 total points.

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Penn State vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Penn State	-7.5 -105	49.5 -110	-275
Michigan State	+7.5 -115	49.5 -110	220

Penn State vs Michigan State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 68.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Penn St and Michigan St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Penn State vs Michigan State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan State will cover the spread with 51.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Penn State Best Bets Today

Penn State has hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.60 Units / 38% ROI)
Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.32 Units / 28% ROI)
Penn State has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 49% ROI)
Penn State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.70 Units / 33% ROI)
Penn State have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.65 Units / 8% ROI)

Michigan State Best Bets Today

Michigan State has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 40% ROI)
Michigan State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Michigan State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.35 Units / 10% ROI)
Michigan State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.00 Units / 6% ROI)
Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 7 games at home (+0.40 Units / 5% ROI)

Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Penn St is 2-7 against the spread this college football season (-5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI).

Penn State is 0-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -44.85 Units / -100% ROI
Penn State is 6-2 when betting the Over for +3.8 Units / 38.38% ROI
Penn State is 2-6 when betting the Under for -4.6 Units / -46.46% ROI

Michigan State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan St iss 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.65 Units / 6.6% ROI).

Michigan State is 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.7 Units / -10.36% ROI
Michigan State is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
Michigan State is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan State

Michigan State has not recorded a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.7

Michigan State has not recorded a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 16.4

Michigan State has not recorded a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 15.2

Michigan State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 4 of 60 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 15%.

Michigan State has no interceptions (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 31.2

Michigan State: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

Michigan State Skill Players have just one touchdown on 53 receptions in close and late situations since the 2024 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.4

Michigan State’s WRs has gained 3,309 yards on 237 receptions (14.0 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-5th-best among Big Ten WRs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 11.5 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2024 season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan State Skill Players have averaged 15.2 yards per reception (622 yards/41 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.5

Michigan State have been sacked on 19% of pass attempts (13/69) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Big Ten Offenses; Average: 7%

Michigan State WRs have no touchdowns on 25 receptions in close and late situations since the 2024 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.0

Matchup Notes for Penn State vs. Michigan State