Penn St vs Ohio St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Oct 28, 2025, 9:27 PM

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Ohio State head coach Ryan Day observes Rutgers during warm up before a NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 3, 2023, in Piscataway, N.J. (AP Photo/Noah K. Murray)

(AP Photo/Noah K. Murray)

Ohio St is a -20.5 point favorite vs. Penn St
Penn State vs. Ohio State Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
TV Channel: FOX

Penn State (3-4) visit Ohio Stadium to take on Ohio State (7-0) on Nov. 1 in Columbus, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Ohio St is a betting favorite in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -20.5 (-115).

The Penn State vs. Ohio State Over/Under is 43.5 total points.

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Penn State vs. Ohio State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Penn State	+20.5 -105	43.5 -110	900
Ohio State	-20.5 -115	43.5 -110	-1600

Penn State vs Ohio State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Ohio State will win this game with 76.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Penn St and Ohio St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Penn State vs Ohio State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Penn State will cover the spread with 50.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Penn State Best Bets Today

Penn State has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 58% ROI)
Penn State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.70 Units / 24% ROI)
Penn State has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)

Ohio State Best Bets Today

Ohio State has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 13% ROI)
Ohio State have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 53% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.50 Units / 27% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.50 Units / 26% ROI)

Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Penn St is 1-6 against the spread this college football season (-5.6 Units / -72.73% ROI).

Penn State is 0-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -42.85 Units / -100% ROI
Penn State is 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
Penn State is 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI

Ohio State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ohio St iss 6-1 against the spread this college football season (+4.9 Units / 63.64% ROI).

Ohio State is 6-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +6 Units / 5.03% ROI
Ohio State is 2-5 when betting the Over for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI
Ohio State is 5-2 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio State

Penn State is winless (0-2) when averaging less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .410

Penn State was 13-3 (.812) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– 15th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .618

Penn State was 12-2 (.857) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– 11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .659

Penn State was 13-3 (.812) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– 21st-best in FBS; Average: .575

Ohio State: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

Penn State allowed 10 rushing TDs on 534 carries (53.4 Carries Per TD) last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 23.2

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 8%

Penn State allowed 7 rushing TDs on 58 carries (8.3 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.8

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 7%

Penn State allowed 10 rushing TDs on 534 carries (53.4 Carries Per TD) last season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 25.5

Matchup Notes for Penn State vs. Ohio State