Bettors Think Penn State Can Break Through in the Big Ten. Are They Right?

We’re officially under 10 days to the start of Week 1 of the college football season. That means bettors are approaching last call for futures bets, including college football win totals, championship bets, and more. 

One team whose odds have been moving quite a bit in the last two weeks is Penn State. And so, with nine days to go before the season-opening game against Marshall, I thought I’d spotlight that movement. 

Penn State Football Odds Targeted by Bettors

As bettors enter the preseason futures market to buy futures tickets, BetMGM’s college football odds begin to move. Helpfully, this reveals winners and losers in the market.

One apparent winner is the Nittany Lions, whose win total has been bumped from 8.5 to 9.5. In the College Football Playoff odds market, Penn State was adjusted down to +300, putting the Nittany Lions more firmly in the hunt for the fourth-place Big Ten team alongside USC and Michigan.

In the conference market, Penn State is the No. 4 most popular bet to win the Big Ten with 8.7% of tickets, trailing Oregon, Ohio State, and Michigan. (Apparently, no one wants to bet Indiana – you know, that little team that went 16-0 last year – at the top of the market.)

The futures love seems to end there. Penn State football odds account for less than 2% of the national championship market, and Rocco Becht accounts for less than 1.5% of the Heisman Trophy market.

Penn State and Michigan are in similar positions for 2026. Both teams are big brands that are breaking in new coaches. Both coaches came from the Big 12, where they became excellent coaches who did more with less at nontraditional winners.

The market believes Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana are all pretty likely to make this year’s playoff. That could mean the rest of the Big Ten is fighting over one playoff spot, with Penn State, USC, and Michigan at the top of that fight.

The upshot of a Penn State bet is that the schedule is quite easy. Penn State is very likely to start the season at 5-0 before hosting USC in a game with major futures implications. The Nittany Lions will go to Michigan one Saturday later. 

Assuming PSU splits those games and enters its bye at 6-1, there’s not much left to scare a good Penn State team beyond a trip to Washington on Nov. 7. The schedule doesn’t have Oregon, Ohio State, or Indiana anywhere in sight.

Matt Campbell’s new team could go 1-2 against the Big Ten’s second tier and still coast to 10 wins pretty easily. 

That fortuitous schedule luck is likely why some college football bettors are lining up behind Campbell, Becht, and the new regime in Happy Valley. 

Over 9.5 @ +100 Yes @ +275 Penn State @ +1800