- Penn State is a -14.5 point favorite vs. Illinois
- Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
- Watch the game on FOX
The Penn State Nittany Lions visit Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini on Sep. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT in Champaign.
Penn State is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-105).
The Penn State vs. Illinois Over/Under is 47.5 total points.
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Penn State vs. Illinois Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 3
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Penn State | -14.5 -105 | 47.5 -105 | -650 |
| Illinois | +14.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | +475 |
Penn State vs Illinois Prediction for Week 3
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 84.5% confidence.
Penn State vs Illinois Spread Prediction for Week 3
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Penn State will cover the spread with 51.9% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Penn State and Illinois, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Penn State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Penn State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+9.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- Penn State have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Penn State have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Penn State has hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Penn State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.00 Units / 12% ROI)
Illinois Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Illinois has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 57% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.27 Units / 33% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Illinois have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Illinois have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Penn State Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Penn State players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nicholas Singleton has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- KeAndre Lambert-Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Best Illinois Player Prop Best Bets Today
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Illinois players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Pat Bryant has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- Isaiah Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Penn State is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Penn State is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 7.41% ROI
- Penn State is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Penn State is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Illinois is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).
- Illinois is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Illinois is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Illinois is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Illinois
#7 Penn State is 12-1 (.923) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2022 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .492
#7 Penn State is 9-1 (.900) when passing for more than 200 yards since the 2022 season– best in FBS; Average: .474
#7 Penn State is 8-1 (.800) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2022 season– tied for 3rd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .438
#7 Penn State is 14-1 (.933) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2021 season– best in FBS; Average: .564
Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State
Illinois is 3-10 (.231) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season– 11th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .497
Illinois is 3-8 (.273) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2021 season– tied for 14th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .470
Illinois was 1-5 (.167) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team in the 2022 season– tied for 10th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .495
Illinois is 4-10 (.267) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .494
Matchup Notes for Penn State vs. Illinois
Illinois’s QBs has thrown for 3,346 passing yards in 15 games (just 223.1 YPG) since the 2022 season — 35th-worst among FBS teams. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 218.1 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois has gained 3,133 yards on 310 receptions (just 10.1 YPR) since the 2022 season — third-worst among Power 5 skill players. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2022 season — tied for 28th-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois has gained 3,133 yards on 310 receptions (just 10.1 YPR) since the 2022 season — tied for seventh-worst among FBS skill players. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2022 season — tied for 28th-best among FBS defenses.
Penn State’s WRs has gained 464 yards on 35 receptions (13.3 YPR) this season — fifth-best among Big Ten WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed 12.1 Yards Per Reception this season — second-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Penn State’s WRs have 232.0 receiving yards per game this season — 28th-best among FBS WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed 249.0 receiving yards per game this season — third-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Penn State’s WRs have 232.0 receiving yards per game this season — best among Big Ten WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed 192.0 receiving yards per game to WRs this season — 35th-worst among FBS defenses.
Penn State Offensive Stats & Trends
Penn State’s WRs has gained 464 yards on 35 receptions (13.3 YPR) this season — fifth-best among Big Ten WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed 12.1 Yards Per Reception this season — second-worst among Big Ten defenses.
#7 Penn State TEs picked up first downs on 8 receptions in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– 3rd most among Power 5 Teams
#7 Penn State WRs had no touchdowns on 17 receptions in close and late situations in the 2022 season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.7
#7 Penn State TEs caught 11 touchdown passes in the 2022 season– 2nd most among Power 5 Teams
#7 Penn State TEs have caught 14 touchdown passes since last season– tied for 2nd most among Power 5 Teams
Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends
Illinois’s QBs has thrown for 3,346 passing yards in 15 games (just 223.1 YPG) since the 2022 season — 35th-worst among FBS teams. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 218.1 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois has gained 3,133 yards on 310 receptions (just 10.1 YPR) since the 2022 season — third-worst among Power 5 skill players. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2022 season — tied for 28th-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois has gained 3,133 yards on 310 receptions (just 10.1 YPR) since the 2022 season — tied for seventh-worst among FBS skill players. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2022 season — tied for 28th-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois’s TEs has gained 93 yards on 7 receptions (13.3 YPR) this season — third-best among Big Ten TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for 31st-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois’s WRs has gained 307 yards on 28 receptions (just 11.0 YPR) this season — tied for 25th-worst among FBS WRs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for 31st-best among FBS defenses.
Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive Stats & Trends
#7 Penn State opponents averaged 47.6 Passing Attempts per TD (381 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2022 season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 20.7
#7 Penn State allowed opponents to catch just 14 of 44 passes (32% Reception Pct) in close and late situations in the 2022 season– best in FBS; Average: 57%
#7 Penn State opponents has averaged 41.5 Passing Attempts per TD (955 Pass Attempts/23 Passing TDs) since the 2021 season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 20.1
#7 Penn State allowed opponents to catch just 14 of 44 passes (32% Reception Pct) in close and late situations in the 2022 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 57%
#7 Penn State has allowed a passer rating of just 101.8 (517.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 130.9
Illinois Fighting Illini Defensive Stats & Trends
Illinois averaged 1.91 interceptions per game (21/11) in the 2022 season– best in FBS; Average: 0.82
Illinois has allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (55 completions/134 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2021 season– best in FBS; Average: 54%
Illinois averaged 1.91 interceptions per game (21/11) in the 2022 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 0.83
Illinois allowed a passer rating of just 92.5 (353.0 Pass Attempts) in the 2022 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 127.6
Illinois has allowed a passer rating of just 98.8 (483.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 130.9
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