Penn State vs Northwestern Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

• The Penn State Nittany Lions are a -3 point favorite vs. the Northwestern Wildcats
• Penn State vs. Northwestern Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
• TV Channel: FOX

Penn State (3-1) visit Ryan Field to take on Northwestern (2-1) on Oct. 2 in Evanston, IL. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 pm.

The Penn State Nittany Lions are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -3 (+100).

The Penn State vs. Northwestern Over/Under is 47.5 total points.

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Penn State vs. Northwestern Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Penn State vs Northwestern Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 54.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Northwestern Wildcats, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Penn State vs Northwestern Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Penn State will cover the spread with 53.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Penn State Best Bets Today

• Penn State has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• Penn State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.32 Units / 15% ROI)
• Penn State have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• Penn State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.55 Units / 7% ROI)

Northwestern Best Bets Today

• Northwestern has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+9.50 Units / 37% ROI)
• Northwestern has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+6.90 Units / 36% ROI)
• Northwestern have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.00 Units / 47% ROI)
• Northwestern have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 44% ROI)
• Northwestern has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 39% ROI)

Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Penn State Nittany Lions is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.57% ROI).

• Penn State is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -4.05% ROI
• Penn State is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
• Penn State is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

Northwestern Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Northwestern Wildcats is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).

• Northwestern is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 12.42% ROI
• Northwestern is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 60.61% ROI
• Northwestern is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -66.67% ROI

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Northwestern

Penn State is winless (0-8) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459

Penn State is winless (0-5) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .513

Penn State is winless (0-5) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .461

Penn State was 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .468

Northwestern: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

Northwestern was winless (0-7) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Northwestern was winless (0-6) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459

Northwestern was 1-8 (.111) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

Northwestern was 1-5 (.167) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .443

Matchup Notes for Penn State vs. Northwestern

Northwestern’s TEs gained 392 yards on 42 receptions (just 9.3 YPR) last season — 5th-worst among Big Ten TEs. Penn State’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Northwestern’s QBs threw for 2,417 passing yards in 13 games (just 185.9 YPG) last season — 30th-worst among FBS teams. Penn State’s defense allowed just 184.2 passing yards per game last season — 5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Northwestern’s QBs threw for 2,417 passing yards in 13 games (just 185.9 YPG) last season — 30th-worst among FBS teams. Penn State’s defense allowed just 184.2 passing yards per game last season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State’s TEs had 61 receptions in 13 games (4.7 per game) last season — 4th-best among Big Ten TEs. Northwestern’s defense allowed just 17.2 receptions per game last season — T-33rd-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State’s QBs threw for 2,439 passing yards in 13 games (just 187.6 YPG) last season — 34th-worst among FBS teams. Northwestern’s defense allowed just 193.5 passing yards per game last season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State had just 187.2 receiving yards per game last season — 33rd-worst among FBS skill players. Northwestern’s defense allowed just 193.5 receiving yards per game last season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State Offensive Stats & Trends

Penn State TEs caught 11 touchdown passes last season– most among Big Ten Teams

Penn State TEs were targeted 169 times last season– most among Power Conference Teams

Penn State TEs had 22 receptions for 20 or more yards last season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Penn State TEs averaged 7.9 receptions per game (127/16) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.7

Penn State TEs averaged 7.9 receptions per game (127/16) last season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4

Northwestern Offensive Stats & Trends

Northwestern Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 30.0 receptions (210 Rec/7 TDs) last season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.7

Northwestern WRs averaged a touchdown every 32.0 receptions (128 Rec/4 TDs) last season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2

Northwestern RBs have averaged 19.8 Yards per Carry (99 yards/5 carries) in close and late situations this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Northwestern RBs have averaged 19.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (99 yards / 5 touches) in close and late situations this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

Northwestern WRs averaged a touchdown every 32.0 receptions (128 Rec/4 TDs) last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.7

Penn State Defensive Stats & Trends

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Penn State allowed 7 rushing TDs on 58 carries (8.3 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 4.6

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 8%

Penn State allowed 7 rushing TDs on 58 carries (8.3 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.8

Penn State tackled opponents for a loss on 111 of 434 rushing attempts (26% TFL%) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 16%.

Northwestern Defensive Stats & Trends

Northwestern had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 38.1

The Northwestern defense has not allowed scores on any opponent drives (11 drives) in the 1st quarter this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 18%

Northwestern has allowed one passing TD (9 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 3.7

Northwestern had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 36.5

Northwestern allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (16 completions/40 attempts) on 3rd and long last season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 55%

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