Pitt vs Florida St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

BetMGM Betting Oct 10, 2025, 11:16 AM

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Florida State head coach Mike Norvell enters the field before an NCAA college football game against Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023. (AP Photo/Matt Freed)

(AP Photo/Matt Freed)

Florida St is a -10.5 point favorite vs. Pitt
Pittsburgh vs. Florida State Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

Pittsburgh (3-2) visit Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium to take on Florida State (3-2) on Oct. 11 in Tallahassee, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Florida St is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).

The Pittsburgh vs. Florida State Over/Under is 57.5 total points.

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Pittsburgh vs. Florida State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Pittsburgh	+10.5 -110	57.5 -105	325
Florida State	-10.5 -110	57.5 -115	-425

Pittsburgh vs Florida State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Florida State will win this game with 75.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Pitt and Florida St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Pittsburgh vs Florida State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Pittsburgh will cover the spread with 50.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Pittsburgh Best Bets Today

Pittsburgh has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.60 Units / 37% ROI)
Pittsburgh has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 48% ROI)
Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.25 Units / 8% ROI)
Pittsburgh has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.10 Units / 2% ROI)
Pittsburgh has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)

Florida State Best Bets Today

Florida State has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.82 Units / 48% ROI)
Florida State have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.55 Units / 19% ROI)
Florida State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Florida State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+1.00 Units / 1% ROI)
Florida State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games at home (+0.85 Units / 0% ROI)

Pittsburgh Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Pitt is 3-2 against the spread this college football season (+0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI).

Pittsburgh is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.65 Units / -7.17% ROI
Pittsburgh is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 34.55% ROI
Pittsburgh is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -41.82% ROI

Florida State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida St iss 3-2 against the spread this college football season (+0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI).

Florida State is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 16.13% ROI
Florida State is 4-1 when betting the Over for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
Florida State is 1-4 when betting the Under for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI

Pittsburgh: Keys to the Game vs. Florida State

Florida State intercepted 4 of 324 attempts (81.0 pass attempts per int.) last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 34.9

Florida State forced 4 fumbles on 477 carries (119.2 Carries Per Fumble) last season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 41.8

Florida State allowed 4.0 touchdowns per interception (16 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) last season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6

Florida State allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (201 completions/415 attempts) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%

Florida State has forced 5 fumbles on 650 carries (130.0 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 43.6

Florida State: Keys to the Game vs. Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh was 6-4 (.600) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .442

Pittsburgh is 4-5 (.444) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2024 season– 7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .684

Pittsburgh was 1-9 (.100) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .450

Pittsburgh was 7-3 (.700) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .575

Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh vs. Florida State