Pittsburgh vs Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:50 PM
  • Pittsburgh U (5-4) are -4.5 point favorites vs Virginia (3-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 40 points
  • Watch the game on ACC Network

The Pittsburgh Panthers (7-4) visit Scott Stadium to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (3-7) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST in Charlottesville.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Pittsburgh U vs. Virginia is total points.

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Pittsburgh U vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Pittsburgh U
Virginia

Pittsburgh Uvs Virginia Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Pittsburgh will win this game with 60.2% confidence.

Pittsburgh U vs Virginia Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Virginia will cover the spread with 66.9% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Pittsburgh U and Virginia, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Pittsburgh U Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Pittsburgh U players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kedon Slovis has hit the TD Passes Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.80 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Kedon Slovis has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 76% ROI)

Best Virginia Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Virginia players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brennan Armstrong has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Dontayvion Wicks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Brennan Armstrong has hit the Passing Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Keytaon Thompson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+11.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.85 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.00 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.50 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 5 games at home (+5.25 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+4.55 Units / 38% ROI)

Pittsburgh UAgainst the Spread (ATS) Record

Pittsburgh U has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Pittsburgh is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.65 Units / -52.7% ROI
  • Pittsburgh is 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 7.95% ROI
  • Pittsburgh is 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -15.91% ROI

Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Virginia has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Virginia is 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -36.19% ROI
  • Virginia is 1-7 when betting the Over for -6.7 Units / -67.68% ROI
  • Virginia is 7-1 when betting the Under for +5.9 Units / 59.6% ROI

Pittsburgh U: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia

Pittsburgh is 12-4 (.600) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .430

Pittsburgh is 7-1 (.636) when not throwing an interception — 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .492

Pittsburgh is 9-2 (.750) when not losing a fumble — 3rd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .443

Pittsburgh is 12-5 (.600) when rushing more than 30 times — tied for 13th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .447

Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Pittsburgh U

Virginia is winless (0-7) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .404

Virginia is 3-9 (.250) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for 12th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .435

Virginia is winless (0-7) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .386

Virginia is 3-7 (.273) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties — 13th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .522

Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh U vs. Virginia

Virginia’s offense has thrown for 6,754 passing yards in 21 games (321.6 YPG) since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 272.9 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — third-worst among ACC defenses.

Virginia’s QBs has thrown for 7,120 passing yards in 21 games (339.0 YPG) since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS teams. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 272.9 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — third-worst among ACC defenses.

Virginia’s WRs has gained 3,925 yards on 254 receptions (15.5 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for third-best among Power 5 WRs. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 12.1 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-worst among ACC defenses.

There are no matchup notes available for this game

Pittsburgh U Offensive Stats & Trends

Pittsburgh Skill Players have caught just 3 of 15 passes (20% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 58%

Pittsburgh Skill Players have caught just 3 of 15 passes (20% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone this season– 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 58%

Pittsburgh RBs have fumbled 7 times this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

Pittsburgh Skill Players have 105 receptions for 20 or more yards since last season– 3rd most among Power 5 Teams

Pittsburgh WRs have caught just 3 of 12 passes (25% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone this season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 53%

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends

Virginia’s offense has thrown for 6,754 passing yards in 21 games (321.6 YPG) since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 272.9 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — third-worst among ACC defenses.

Virginia’s QBs has thrown for 7,120 passing yards in 21 games (339.0 YPG) since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS teams. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 272.9 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — third-worst among ACC defenses.

Virginia WRs have averaged a touchdown every 30.2 receptions (121 Rec/4 TDs) this season– 4th worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1

Virginia RBs have averaged 12.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (245 yards / 19 touches) on 3rd and long since last season– 5th best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.3

Virginia RBs have been targeted 8.1 times per game (170/21) since last season– 4th highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

Pittsburgh Panthers Defensive Stats & Trends

Pittsburgh has allowed 8.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (181 yards / 22 touches) on 3rd and short this season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.6

Pittsburgh has tackled opponents for a loss on 158 of 727 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) since last season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 16%.

Pittsburgh has averaged 3.6 sacks per game since last season– best in FBS; Average: 2.2

Pittsburgh has sacked opponents 79 times since last season– 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

Pittsburgh has tackled opponents for a loss on 158 of 727 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) since last season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

Virginia Cavaliers Defensive Stats & Trends

Virginia has sacked opponents 6 times in the Red Zone this season– most in FBS

Virginia has sacked opponents 6 times in the Red Zone this season– most among Power 5 Teams

Virginia has allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (37 completions/92 attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 54%

Virginia has tackled opponents for a loss on just 98 of 826 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) since last season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

Virginia has averaged a sack every 4.3 pass attempts (26 Pass Attempts/6 Sacks) in the Red Zone this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.3


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.