Purdue vs Illinois Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:45 PM
  • Illinois (7-2) are -6.5 point favorites vs Purdue (5-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
  • Watch the game on

The Purdue Boilermakers (7-4) visit Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (7-4) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Champaign.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Purdue vs. Illinois is total points.

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Purdue vs. Illinois Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Purdue
Illinois

Purdue vs Illinois Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Illinois will win this game with 61.0% confidence.

Purdue vs Illinois Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Illinois will cover the spread with 59.6% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Purdue and Illinois, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Purdue Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Purdue players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Aidan O’Connell has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Charlie Jones has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • King Doerue has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 46% ROI)

Best Illinois Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Illinois players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Chase Brown has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Tommy DeVito has hit the TD Passes Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+3.45 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Isaiah Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Tommy DeVito has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Tommy DeVito has hit the Passing Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.55 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Purdue has hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+11.80 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Purdue has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+8.85 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Purdue has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.18 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Purdue has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Purdue has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 20 games (+4.48 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+14.85 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Illinois has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 11 games (+11.82 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Illinois has hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.60 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Illinois have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.95 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Illinois have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)

Purdue Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Purdue has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Purdue is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 7.61% ROI
  • Purdue is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Purdue is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Illinois has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Illinois is 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -2.52% ROI
  • Illinois is 2-6 when betting the Over for -4.6 Units / -46.46% ROI
  • Illinois is 6-2 when betting the Under for +3.8 Units / 38.38% ROI

Purdue: Keys to the Game vs. Illinois

Purdue is 10-7 (.526) when passing for more than 200 yards — 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .405

Purdue is 7-2 (.778) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team — tied for 13th-best in FBS; Average: .497

Purdue is 10-1 (.909) when intercepting at least 1 pass — tied for 9th-best in FBS; Average: .620

Purdue is 6-2 (.750) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team — tied for 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .497

Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Purdue

#18 Illinois is 5-1 (.625) when scoring 22 or more points — tied for 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .511

Illinois is 3-9 (.250) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2020 season– tied for 8th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .499

Illinois is 5-10 (.333) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– tied for 10th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .506

Illinois is 3-9 (.250) when the opposing team commits less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .509

Matchup Notes for Purdue vs. Illinois

Purdue’s TEs has 117 receptions in 21 games (5.6 per game) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-best among P5 TEs. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 16.6 receptions per game since the 2021 season — tied for third-best among Big Ten defenses.

Purdue’s offense has thrown for 7,127 passing yards in 21 games (339.4 YPG) since the 2021 season — fourth-best among FBS offenses. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 215.0 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big Ten defenses.

Purdue’s QBs has thrown for 7,436 passing yards in 21 games (354.1 YPG) since the 2021 season — fourth-best among FBS teams. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 215.0 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big Ten defenses.

Purdue Offensive Stats & Trends

Purdue Skill Players have averaged 30.4 receptions per game (639/21) since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.8

Purdue’s TEs has 117 receptions in 21 games (5.6 per game) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-best among P5 TEs. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 16.6 receptions per game since the 2021 season — tied for third-best among Big Ten defenses.

Purdue TEs have caught 6 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter since last season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

Purdue WRs have averaged 21.2 receptions per game (445/21) since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.1

Purdue’s offense has thrown for 7,127 passing yards in 21 games (339.4 YPG) since the 2021 season — fourth-best among FBS offenses. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 215.0 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big Ten defenses.

Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends

#21 Illinois RBs have rushed for 2 TDs on 42 carries (21 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 4th worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.6

#21 Illinois RBs have averaged 3.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (699 yards / 196 touches) in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

#21 Illinois RBs have rushed for 10 TDs on 680 carries (68 Carries Per TD) since last season– worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.7

#21 Illinois Skill Players have averaged just 7.4 yards per reception (118 yards/16 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.0

#21 Illinois Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 31.5 receptions (63 Rec/2 TDs) in close and late situations since last season– 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.5

Purdue Boilermakers Defensive Stats & Trends

Purdue has allowed 15.7 yards per completion (2,035 yards/130 completions) this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.2

Purdue has allowed 15.7 yards per completion (2,035 yards/130 completions) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 12.5

Purdue has allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (13 completions/37 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%

Purdue has allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (13 completions/37 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 54%

Purdue has allowed opponents to catch just 13 of 37 passes (35% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%

Illinois Fighting Illini Defensive Stats & Trends

#21 Illinois has allowed a passer rating of just 87.6 (248.0 Pass Attempts) this season– best in FBS; Average: 131.1

#21 Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on 55 of 220 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

#21 Illinois has allowed a passer rating of just 87.6 (248.0 Pass Attempts) this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 126.9

#21 Illinois has allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (118 completions/248 attempts) this season– best in FBS; Average: 61%

#21 Illinois opponents has averaged 7.4 Passing Attempts per TD (67 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– 4th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.1


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.