Purdue vs Illinois Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

• The Illinois Fighting Illini are a -10 point favorite vs. the Purdue Boilermakers
• Purdue vs. Illinois Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
• TV Channel: BTN

Purdue (1-3) visit Gies Memorial Stadium to take on Illinois (2-2) on Oct. 3 in Champaign, IL. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 pm.

The Illinois Fighting Illini are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -10 (-108).

The Purdue vs. Illinois Over/Under is 59.5 total points.

Bet now on Illinois Fighting Illini vs Purdue Boilermakers & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Purdue vs. Illinois Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Purdue vs Illinois Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Illinois will win this game with 71.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Purdue Boilermakers and the Illinois Fighting Illini, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Purdue vs Illinois Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Illinois will cover the spread with 66.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Illinois Fighting Illini vs Purdue Boilermakers and all games with BetMGM

Purdue Best Bets Today

• Purdue has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.10 Units / 59% ROI)
• Purdue has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Purdue has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Purdue has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Purdue has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.35 Units / 10% ROI)

Illinois Best Bets Today

• Illinois has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.10 Units / 5% ROI)
• Illinois has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.95 Units / 3% ROI)
• Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+1.85 Units / 4% ROI)
• Illinois has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• Illinois has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.55 Units / 17% ROI)

Purdue Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Purdue Boilermakers is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -51.69% ROI).

• Purdue is 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -100% ROI
• Purdue is 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 90.91% ROI
• Purdue is 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.4 Units / -100% ROI

Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Illinois Fighting Illini is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• Illinois is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -7.05% ROI
• Illinois is 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 91.95% ROI
• Illinois is 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.45 Units / -100% ROI

Purdue: Keys to the Game vs. Illinois

Purdue is 1-10 (.091) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .634

Purdue was winless (0-4) when in a one score game last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Purdue was winless (0-9) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498

Purdue was winless (0-9) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .481

Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Purdue

Illinois was 6-1 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .668

Illinois was 9-1 (.900) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: .624

Illinois is 3-7 (.300) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2024 season– 11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .504

Illinois was 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: .632

Matchup Notes for Purdue vs. Illinois

Illinois’s RBs averaged 9.2 yards after the catch last season — T-32nd-best among FBS RBs. Purdue’s defense allowed 9.1 RAC to RBs last season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Illinois’s RBs averaged 9.2 yards after the catch last season — T-32nd-best among FBS RBs. Purdue’s defense allowed 14.3 RAC last season — worst among Big Ten defenses.

Illinois’s RBs averaged 9.2 yards after the catch last season — T-32nd-best among FBS RBs. Purdue’s defense allowed 14.3 RAC last season — worst among P5 defenses.

Purdue’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 8.4% of 404 attempts last season — T-29th-worst among FBS offenses. Illinois’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.1% of attempts last season — 2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Purdue’s TEs had 24 receptions in 12 games (just 2.0 per game) last season — worst among Big Ten TEs. Illinois’s defense allowed 21.0 receptions per game last season — worst among Big Ten defenses.

Purdue’s WRs gained 1,914 yards on 165 receptions (just 11.6 YPR) last season — 4th-worst among Big Ten WRs. Illinois’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Purdue Offensive Stats & Trends

Purdue RBs averaged 10.0 Yards per Carry (269 yards/27 carries) in close and late situations last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2

Purdue’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 8.4% of 404 attempts last season — T-29th-worst among FBS offenses. Illinois’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.1% of attempts last season — 2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Purdue WRs have 20 receptions in close and late situations this season– most among Big Ten Teams

Purdue WRs have been targeted 20 times in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-most among FBS Teams

Purdue Skill Players averaged just 7.1 yards per reception (178 yards/25 catches) last week– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.2

Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends

Illinois TEs averaged 18.0 yards per reception (36 yards/2 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.1

Illinois Skill Players averaged 17.8 yards per reception (551 yards/31 catches) on 3rd and long last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.7

Illinois RBs have rushed for 4 TDs in the 1st quarter this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Illinois Skill Players averaged 17.8 yards per reception (551 yards/31 catches) on 3rd and long last season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.1

Illinois Skill Players averaged 17.8 yards per reception (551 yards/31 catches) on 3rd and long last season– 5th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

Purdue Defensive Stats & Trends

Purdue has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 6 of 17 attempts (35%) on 3rd and long this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%

Purdue allowed 60 TDs last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 2.6

Purdue has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 64 of 418 attempts (15%) since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%

Purdue allowed 13.9 yards per completion (3,032 yards/218 completions) last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 11.0

Purdue allowed 6.8 touchdowns per interception (27 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1.6

Illinois Defensive Stats & Trends

Illinois has averaged a sack every 43.7 pass attempts (131 Pass Attempts/3 Sacks) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 13.8

Illinois has averaged a sack every 43.7 pass attempts (131 Pass Attempts/3 Sacks) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.9

Illinois has no interceptions and 24 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 10.6

Illinois has allowed 7 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– most in the Big Ten

Illinois has allowed 24 TD passes in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– most among Power Conference Teams

Bet now on Illinois Fighting Illini vs Purdue Boilermakers and all games with BetMGM

More College Football Betting at BetMGM

College football betting is available at the online sportsbook throughout the season.

Whether you’re a first-time bettor checking out the best sportsbook promos, a casual fan betting on Indiana football national championship odds, Michigan football odds, or Ohio State odds this week, or a longtime diehard breaking down trends for live betting, there are entertainment options for everyone.

Visit the sportsbook today to place a college football bet online!