Purdue vs LSU Prediction, Odds & Prop Bets: Citrus Bowl

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 02, 2023, 11:45 AM
  • LSU (10-4) are -14.5 point favorites vs Purdue (8-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 54 points
  • Watch the game on ABC

The LSU Tigers (8-6) visit Camping World Stadium to take on the Purdue Boilermakers (10-4) on Jan. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Orlando.

LSU are betting favorites in Week 18, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-110).

The Purdue vs. LSU Over/Under is 54 total points.

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Purdue vs. LSU Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 18

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Purdue+14.5 -11054 -110+500
LSU -14.5 -11054 -110-700

Purdue vs LSU Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts LSU will win this game with 70.7% confidence.

Purdue vs LSU Spread Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Purdue will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Purdue and LSU, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Purdue Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Purdue players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jayden Daniels has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Malik Nabers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Jayden Daniels has hit the Passing Yards Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.60 Units / 22% ROI)

Best LSU Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for LSU players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • King Doerue has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 46% ROI)
  • LSU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+13.35 Units / 52% ROI)
  • LSU has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
  • LSU has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games (+4.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • LSU has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 60% ROI)
  • LSU have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Purdue has hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+14.00 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Purdue has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.98 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Purdue has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+6.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Purdue has hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Purdue have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.40 Units / 23% ROI)

Purdue Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Purdue has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Purdue is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Purdue is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Purdue is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

LSU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

LSU has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • LSU is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • LSU is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • LSU is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Purdue: Keys to the Game vs. LSU

#17 LSU is 2-8 (.154) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2021 season– tied for 13th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .317

#17 LSU is 2-8 (.200) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2021 season– tied for 13th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .386

#17 LSU is 5-2 (.714) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team — tied for 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .495

LSU: Keys to the Game vs. Purdue

Purdue is 12-3 (.800) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– tied for 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .494

Purdue is 8-3 (.727) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season– tied for 7th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .496

Purdue is 10-5 (.625) when not losing a fumble since the 2021 season– tied for 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .451

Purdue is 9-3 (.750) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season– 13th-best in FBS; Average: .497

Matchup Notes for Purdue vs. LSU

There are no matchup notes available for this game

There are no matchup notes available for this game

Purdue Offensive Stats & Trends

#11 LSU Skill Players have averaged just 8.8 yards per reception (493 yards/56 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.6

#11 LSU QBs have rushed for 389 yards on 1st down this season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

#11 LSU WRs have averaged just 9.2 yards per reception (406 yards/44 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– tied for 5th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.9

#11 LSU WRs have been targeted 167 times in the 4th quarter since last season– 4th most among FBS Teams

#11 LSU WRs have averaged just 9.0 yards per reception (126 yards/14 catches) with over 10 yards to go this season– tied for 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 14.1

LSU Offensive Stats & Trends

Purdue TEs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– tied for most among Power 5 Teams

Purdue TEs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Purdue TEs have caught 7 touchdown passes in close and late situations since last season– most among Power 5 Teams

Purdue TEs have caught 7 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for most among Power 5 Teams

Purdue WRs have averaged 19.9 receptions per game (477/24) since last season– 4th best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

LSU Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

#11 LSU opponents has averaged 9.0 Passing Attempts per TD (36 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 4.0

#11 LSU opponents has averaged 9.0 Passing Attempts per TD (36 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.2

#11 LSU has allowed a passer rating of just 92.2 in the Red Zone (36.0 Pass Attempts) this season– 4th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 158.0

#11 LSU has allowed 18 TDs in close and late situations since last season– 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

#11 LSU has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 16 of 116 attempts (14%) on 3rd and long since last season– 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 9%

Purdue Boilermakers Defensive Stats & Trends

Purdue has allowed first downs on 10% of pass attempts on 3rd and long this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 27%

Purdue has allowed first downs on 14% of pass attempts on 3rd and long since last season– best in FBS; Average: 28%

Purdue has allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (5 completions/5 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 61%

Purdue has allowed first downs on 10% of pass attempts on 3rd and long this season– best in FBS; Average: 28%

Purdue has intercepted 4 of 72 attempts (18.0 pass attempts per int.) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 42.5


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.