Michigan vs Purdue Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Big Ten Championship

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 11, 2022, 12:01 PM

Michigan (12-0) are -16.5 point favorites vs Purdue (8-4)
Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
Watch the Big Ten Championship game on FOX

The Purdue Boilermakers (8-5) visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Michigan Wolverines (13-0) on Dec. 3. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Indianapolis.

– are betting favorites in Week 14, with the spread sitting at ().

The Purdue vs. Michigan Over/Under is total points.

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Purdue vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Big Ten Championship:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Purdue
Michigan

Purdue vs Michigan Prediction, Big Ten Championship:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Michigan will win this game with 78.3% confidence.

Purdue vs Michigan Spread Prediction, Big Ten Championship:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Purdue will cover the spread with 74.7% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Purdue and Michigan, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.

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Best Purdue Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Purdue players for Week 14, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Aidan O’Connell has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 35% ROI)

Aidan O’Connell has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 57% ROI)

King Doerue has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 46% ROI)

Best Michigan Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Michigan players for Week 14, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Cornelius Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.60 Units / 24% ROI)

J.J. McCarthy has hit the Passing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.65 Units / 49% ROI)

Ronnie Bell has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 37% ROI)

Blake Corum has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 36% ROI)

Roman Wilson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)

J.J. McCarthy has hit the TD Passes Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+2.95 Units / 44% ROI)

J.J. McCarthy has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 46% ROI)

Blake Corum has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.50 Units / 20% ROI)

Purdue Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Purdue has hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+15.00 Units / 29% ROI)

Purdue has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+10.18 Units / 39% ROI)

Purdue has hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+6.85 Units / 15% ROI)

Purdue has hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 24% ROI)

Purdue have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.40 Units / 20% ROI)

Michigan Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 20 games (+18.05 Units / 13% ROI)

Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+9.45 Units / 13% ROI)

Michigan have covered the Spread in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.40 Units / 39% ROI)

Michigan has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.87 Units / 9% ROI)

Michigan has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.15 Units / 26% ROI)

Purdue Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Purdue has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

Purdue is 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.45 Units / 16.27% ROI
Purdue is 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
Purdue is 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI

Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

Michigan is 7-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.8 Units / 14.83% ROI
Michigan is 3-8 when betting the Over for -5.8 Units / -43.94% ROI
Michigan is 8-3 when betting the Under for +4.7 Units / 35.61% ROI

Purdue: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan

Purdue is 12-7 (.571) when passing for more than 200 yards since the 2021 season– 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .415

Purdue is 9-2 (.818) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: .497

Purdue is 7-1 (.778) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2021 season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: .542

Purdue is 11-4 (.647) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2021 season– tied for 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .526

Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Purdue

#2 Michigan is 11-1 (.917) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2021 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .381

#2 Michigan is undefeated (7-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times — tied for best in FBS; Average: .406

#2 Michigan is undefeated (5-0) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– best in FBS; Average: .494

#2 Michigan is undefeated (21-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2021 season– best in FBS; Average: .516

Matchup Notes for Purdue vs. Michigan

Michigan has gained 5,556 yards on 436 receptions (12.7 YPR) since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big Ten skill players. Purdue’s defense has allowed 12.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — second-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan’s WRs has gained 1,468 yards on 111 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — fifth-best among Big Ten WRs. Purdue’s defense has allowed 13.1 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for fourth-worst among P5 defenses.

Michigan’s WRs has gained 1,468 yards on 111 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — fifth-best among Big Ten WRs. Purdue’s defense has allowed 15.3 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — tied for third-worst among FBS defenses.

Purdue has gained 3,173 yards on 293 receptions (just 10.8 YPR) this season — fifth-worst among Big Ten skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for fourth-best among P5 defenses.

Purdue’s WRs has gained 2,170 yards on 192 receptions (just 11.3 YPR) this season — fourth-worst among Big Ten WRs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — second-best among Big Ten defenses.

Purdue’s offense has thrown for 7,813 passing yards in 24 games (325.5 YPG) since the 2021 season — fourth-best among FBS offenses. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 205.0 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — third-best among Big Ten defenses.

Purdue Offensive Stats & Trends

Purdue Skill Players have averaged 29.1 receptions per game (698/24) since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.6

Purdue’s QBs has thrown for 8,157 passing yards in 24 games (339.9 YPG) since the 2021 season — fourth-best among FBS teams. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 205.0 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — third-best among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends

#2 Michigan RBs have averaged 13.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (421 yards / 31 touches) on 3rd and long since last season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.3

#2 Michigan RBs have averaged 216.1 rushing yards per game (2,377/11) this season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 131.8

#2 Michigan RBs have rushed for 18 TDs in the 4th quarter since last season– most among FBS Teams

Purdue Boilermakers Defensive Stats & Trends

Purdue has allowed first downs on 10% of pass attempts on 3rd and long this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 27%

Purdue has allowed first downs on 14% of pass attempts on 3rd and long since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 27%

Purdue has allowed first downs on 14% of pass attempts on 3rd and long since last season– best in FBS; Average: 28%

Purdue has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 28 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 5th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%.

Purdue has allowed first downs on 25% of pass attempts on 3rd down since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 35%

Michigan Wolverines Defensive Stats & Trends

#2 Michigan has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 309 carries (61.8 Carries Per TD) this season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 23.8

#2 Michigan opponents has averaged 48.9 Passing Attempts per TD (342 Pass Attempts/7 Passing TDs) this season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 20.7

#2 Michigan has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 30 carries (10 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.7

#2 Michigan has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 30 carries (10 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 4.8

#2 Michigan has allowed 10 rushing TDs on 82 carries (8.2 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 4.8

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