Rice vs Texas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 1

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(AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 06, 2023, 1:53 PM

Texas is a -35.5 point favorite vs Rice
Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
Watch the game on FOX

The Rice Owls visit DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium to take on the Texas Longhorns on Sep. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT in Austin.

Texas is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -35.5 (-110).

The Rice vs. Texas Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

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Rice vs. Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Rice	+35.5 -110	58.5 -110	+2000
Texas	-35.5 -110	58.5 -110	-10000

Rice vs Texas Prediction for Week 1

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 95.0% confidence.

Rice vs Texas Spread Prediction for Week 1

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Rice will cover the spread with 59.5% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Rice and Texas, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.

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Best Texas Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Quinn Ewers has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Quinn Ewers has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 4 games (+4.10 Units / 67% ROI)

Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.15 Units / 105% ROI)

Xavier Worthy has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Ja’Tavion Sanders has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Jordan Whittington has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Jordan Whittington has hit the Receptions Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)

Rice Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Rice went 7-6 against the spread last college football season (+0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI).

Rice went 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.3 Units / -16.02% ROI
Rice went 9-4 when betting the Over for +4.6 Units / 32.17% ROI
Rice went 4-9 when betting the Under for -5.9 Units / -41.26% ROI

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas went 7-5 against the spread last college football season (+1.45 Units / 10.98% ROI).

Texas went 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -13.4% ROI
Texas went 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
Texas went 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI

Rice: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

Rice was winless (0-8) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays in the 2022 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .427

Rice is 3-13 (.188) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season– 15th-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Rice is 3-15 (.158) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season– tied for 15th-worst in FBS; Average: .410

Rice is 2-11 (.154) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season– 11th-worst in FBS; Average: .497

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Rice

#11 Texas was 7-3 (.700) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2022 season– tied for 13th-best in FBS; Average: .415

#11 Texas is 4-10 (.286) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– tied for 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .494

#11 Texas was 5-3 (.625) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2022 season– tied for 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .410

#11 Texas was 8-3 (.727) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times in the 2022 season– tied for 13th-best in FBS; Average: .504

Matchup Notes for Rice vs. Texas

Texas’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 12.6% of 404 attempts in the 2022 season — tied for 28th-best among FBS offenses. Rice’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.8% of attempts in the 2022 season — tied for 15th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas’s TEs had 62 receptions in 13 games (4.8 per game) in the 2022 season — best among Big 12 TEs. Rice’s defense allowed just 16.2 receptions per game in the 2022 season — tied for 13th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas’s RBs averaged 12.7 yards after the catch in the 2022 season — third-best among FBS RBs. Rice’s defense allowed 9.7 RAC to RBs in the 2022 season — tied for 16th-worst among FBS defenses.

Rice gained 3,026 yards on 230 receptions (13.2 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for 28th-best among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — best among Big 12 defenses.

Rice’s WRs gained 2,386 yards on 167 receptions (14.3 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for 33rd-best among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — tied for third-best among FBS defenses.

Rice Offensive Stats & Trends

Rice’s RBs averaged 10.7 yards after the catch in the 2022 season — tied for 12th-best among FBS RBs. Texas’s defense allowed just 6.0 RAC to RBs in the 2022 season — tied for 12th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

#11 Texas WRs averaged just 2.2 yards per target (67 yards/30 targets) on 3rd and long in the 2022 season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 8.2

#11 Texas RBs have picked up first downs on 9 receptions in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– tied for most among FBS Teams

#11 Texas RBs have averaged 7.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (3,097 yards / 430 touches) in the 1st half since the 2021 season– tied for best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

Rice Owls Defensive Stats & Trends

Rice did not record a sack (54 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 17.1

Rice did not record a sack (54 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.8

Rice allowed 5.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (447 yards / 79 touches) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– worst in FBS; Average: 3.7

Rice allowed 5.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (447 yards / 79 touches) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.6

Rice allowed 18 first down receptions in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– tied for 3rd-most in FBS

Texas Longhorns Defensive Stats & Trends

#11 Texas allowed just 10.5 yards per completion (3,328 yards/316 completions) in the 2022 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 12.6

#11 Texas has allowed just 10.8 yards per completion (6,167 yards/570 completions) since the 2021 season– best in FBS; Average: 12.7

#11 Texas allowed just 10.5 yards per completion (3,328 yards/316 completions) in the 2022 season– 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.4

#11 Texas has allowed just 10.8 yards per completion (6,167 yards/570 completions) since the 2021 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.5

#11 Texas has allowed just 10.0 yards per completion (2,310 yards/230 completions) on 1st down since the 2021 season– best in FBS; Average: 12.9

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