Rice vs Texas St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Armed Forces Bowl

BetMGM Betting Jan 02, 2026, 9:51 AM

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Balls lie on the field before an NCAA college football game between Mississippi and Vanderbilt on Thursday, Aug. 29, 2013, in Nashville, Tenn.

(AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Texas St is a -14 point favorite vs. Rice
Rice vs. Texas State Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
Armed Forces Bowl TV Channel: ESPN

Rice (5-7) visit Amon G. Carter Stadium to take on Texas State (6-6) on Jan. 2 in Fort Worth, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST.

Texas St is a betting favorite in the Armed Forces Bowl, with the spread sitting at -14 (-110).

The Rice vs. Texas State Over/Under is 57.5 total points.

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Rice vs. Texas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Rice vs Texas State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas State will win this game with 77.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Rice and Texas St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Rice vs Texas State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas State will cover the spread with 50.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Rice Best Bets Today

Rice has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.15 Units / 77% ROI)
Rice has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Rice has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 41% ROI)
Rice has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Rice has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+1.15 Units / 2% ROI)

Texas State Best Bets Today

Texas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.00 Units / 14% ROI)
Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Texas State has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.70 Units / 32% ROI)
Texas State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+1.95 Units / 8% ROI)
Texas State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)

Rice Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Rice is 5-7 against the spread this college football season (-2.8 Units / -21.05% ROI).

Rice is 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 2.01% ROI
Rice is 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
Rice is 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI

Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas St iss 4-7 against the spread this college football season (-3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI).

Texas State is 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.3 Units / -20.36% ROI
Texas State is 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
Texas State is 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI

Rice: Keys to the Game vs. Texas State

Texas State has forced 2 fumbles on 388 carries (194.0 Carries Per Fumble) this season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 48.2

Texas State has forced 2 fumbles on 388 carries (194.0 Carries Per Fumble) this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 51.3

Texas State has allowed 16 first down receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Texas State has allowed a Completion Pct of 89% (42 completions/47 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– worst in FBS; Average: 60%

Texas State has allowed 16 first down receptions in the Red Zone this season– most in FBS

Texas State: Keys to the Game vs. Rice

Texas State has gained 3,065 yards on 235 receptions (13.0 YPR) this season — T-26th-best among FBS skill players. Rice’s defense has allowed 13.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-worst among NonP5 defenses.

Texas State have not been intercepted (54 pass attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 31.8

Texas State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.6% of 332 attempts this season — T-10th-best among FBS offenses. Rice’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.6% of attempts this season — T-14th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas State QBs rushed for 6 TDs in the 1st quarter last season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

Texas State have thrown 6 TDs and no interceptions in the 4th quarter this season– T-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 1.6

Matchup Notes for Rice vs. Texas State