San Diego St vs Nevada Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

BetMGM Betting Oct 10, 2025, 11:28 AM

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(AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)

San Diego St is a -7.5 point favorite vs. Nevada
San Diego State vs. Nevada Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
TV Channel: CBSN

San Diego State (4-1) visit Mackay Stadium to take on Nevada (1-4) on Oct. 11 in Reno, NV. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EDT.

San Diego St is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-105).

The San Diego State vs. Nevada Over/Under is 42.5 total points.

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San Diego State vs. Nevada Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
San Diego State	-7.5 -105	42.5 -115	-285
Nevada	+7.5 -125	42.5 -105	225

San Diego State vs Nevada Prediction:

The winning team model predicts San Diego State will win this game with 69.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both San Diego St and Nevada, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

San Diego State vs Nevada Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts San Diego State will cover the spread with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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San Diego State Best Bets Today

San Diego State has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
San Diego State have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.65 Units / 18% ROI)
San Diego State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.75 Units / 25% ROI)
San Diego State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
San Diego State has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+1.00 Units / 4% ROI)

Nevada Best Bets Today

Nevada has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Nevada has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 25% ROI)
Nevada has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.65 Units / 23% ROI)
Nevada has hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.75 Units / 13% ROI)

San Diego State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

San Diego St is 4-1 against the spread this college football season (+2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI).

San Diego State is 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.2 Units / 38.39% ROI
San Diego State is 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
San Diego State is 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI

Nevada Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Nevada iss 2-3 against the spread this college football season (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI).

Nevada is 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.2 Units / -52.83% ROI
Nevada is 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
Nevada is 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI

San Diego State: Keys to the Game vs. Nevada

Nevada has not forced a fumble (177 carries) this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 49.8

Nevada has not forced a fumble (177 carries) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 50.8

Nevada allowed 29 rushing TDs in the Red Zone last season– most in FBS

Nevada did not allow any rushing touchdowns on 36 rushes last week– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 26.1

Nevada has forced 6 fumbles on 673 carries (112.2 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2024 season– 4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 47.1

Nevada: Keys to the Game vs. San Diego State

San Diego State WRs had no touchdowns on 6 receptions in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9

San Diego State have averaged a touchdown every 3.6 receptions (25 Rec/7 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Offenses; Average: 2.1

San Diego State Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 3.6 receptions (25 Rec/7 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1

San Diego State RBs rushed for 4 TDs last week– T-most among FBS Teams

San Diego State has just 1.0 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-24th-worst among FBS skill players. Nevada’s defense has allowed just 1.0 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

Matchup Notes for San Diego State vs. Nevada