San Diego State vs New Mexico Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 16, 2022, 5:32 PM
  • San Diego State (6-4) are -14.5 point favorites vs New Mexico (2-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 37.5 points
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The San Diego State Aztecs (7-4) visit University Stadium (NM) to take on the New Mexico Lobos (2-9) on Nov. 18. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Albuquerque.

are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for San Diego State vs. New Mexico is total points.

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San Diego State vs. New Mexico Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
San Diego State
New Mexico

San Diego State vs New Mexico Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts San Diego State will win this game with 73.5% confidence.

San Diego State vs New Mexico Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts San Diego State will cover the spread with 64.2% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both San Diego State and New Mexico, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


  • San Diego State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.65 Units / 19% ROI)
  • San Diego State has hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • San Diego State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 9 away games (+7.43 Units / 55% ROI)
  • San Diego State have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.15 Units / 27% ROI)
  • San Diego State have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • New Mexico has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+7.40 Units / 88% ROI)
  • New Mexico has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.40 Units / 31% ROI)
  • New Mexico has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 13 games (+4.35 Units / 30% ROI)
  • New Mexico has hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • New Mexico have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.75 Units / 33% ROI)

San Diego State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

San Diego State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • San Diego State is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 0.3% ROI
  • San Diego State is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • San Diego State is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI

New Mexico Against the Spread (ATS) Record

New Mexico has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • New Mexico is 1-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.6 Units / -68.47% ROI
  • New Mexico is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • New Mexico is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

San Diego State: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico

San Diego State is 15-1 (.938) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities — tied for 5th-best in FBS; Average: .562

San Diego State is 9-1 (.818) when not losing a fumble — 7th-best in FBS; Average: .508

San Diego State is 11-1 (.846) when not throwing an interception — tied for 11th-best in FBS; Average: .576

New Mexico: Keys to the Game vs. San Diego State

New Mexico is winless (0-9) when intercepting no passes — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .357

New Mexico is winless (0-9) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .389

New Mexico is winless (0-8) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .398

New Mexico is 1-15 (.062) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times — 4th-worst in FBS; Average: .421

Matchup Notes for San Diego State vs. New Mexico

New Mexico has gained 2,359 yards on 236 receptions (just 10.0 YPR) since the 2021 season — fourth-worst among FBS skill players. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — tied for second-best among NonP5 defenses.

New Mexico’s offense has 16 rushing touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for fewest among FBS offenses. San Diego State’s defense has allowed 16 rushing TDs since the 2021 season — second-fewest among NonP5 defenses.

New Mexico’s RBs has 7 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — tied for fewest among FBS RBs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed 12 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — fifth-fewest among FBS defenses.

San Diego State Offensive Stats & Trends

San Diego State RBs have rushed for 2 TDs on 33 carries (16.5 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.6

San Diego State RBs have rushed for 3 TDs on 253 carries (84.3 Carries Per TD) this season– 3rd worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.6

San Diego State RBs have fumbled 13 times since last season– tied for most among FBS Teams

San Diego State WRs have averaged just 10.1 yards per reception (547 yards/54 catches) in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.4

San Diego State RBs have averaged 1.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (33 yards / 24 touches) on third and 3-5 yards to go since last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.7

New Mexico Offensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico Skill Players have averaged just 3.7 yards per reception (77 yards/21 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

New Mexico has gained 2,359 yards on 236 receptions (just 10.0 YPR) since the 2021 season — fourth-worst among FBS skill players. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — tied for second-best among NonP5 defenses.

New Mexico RBs have averaged 3.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (521 yards / 143 touches) in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for 2nd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

New Mexico have been sacked on 17% of pass attempts (24/137) in the 4th quarter since last season– 3rd worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 8%

New Mexico Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 35.0 receptions (105 Rec/3 TDs) this season– 2nd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.7

San Diego State Aztecs Defensive Stats & Trends

San Diego State has sacked opposing QBs just once on 94 pass attempts in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.1

San Diego State has allowed 16 rushing TDs on 689 carries (43.1 Carries Per TD) since last season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 22.8

San Diego State has sacked opposing QBs just once on 94 pass attempts in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 16.0

San Diego State has tackled opponents for a loss on 146 of 689 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) since last season– tied for 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

San Diego State has tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 23 rushing attempts (26% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

New Mexico Lobos Defensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 72 of 809 carries (9%) since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 13%

New Mexico has allowed first downs on 8% of pass attempts on 3rd and long this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 28%

New Mexico has allowed just 147.9 receiving yards per game (1,331/9) this season– best in FBS; Average: 224.7

New Mexico has allowed 179.6 Passing Yards per game (1,616/9) this season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 241.0

New Mexico has allowed first downs on 17% of pass attempts on 3rd and long since last season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 28%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.