San Diego State vs Oregon State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

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Oregon State's Damien Martinez rushes against Washington State's Jordan Lee during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 15, 2022, in Corvallis, Ore. Oregon State won the game 24-10. (AP Photo/Mark Ylen)
(AP Photo/Mark Ylen)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 16, 2023, 11:13 AM
  • Oregon State is a -24.5 point favorite vs. San Diego State
  • Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The San Diego State Aztecs visit Reser Stadium to take on the Oregon State Beavers on Sep. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT in Corvallis.

Oregon State is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -24.5 (-110).

The San Diego State vs. Oregon State Over/Under is 48.5 total points.

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San Diego State vs. Oregon State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 3

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
San Diego State+24.5 -11048.5 -110+1200
Oregon State -24.5 -11048.5 -110-3000

San Diego State vs Oregon State Prediction for Week 3

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Oregon State will win this game with 94.9% confidence.

San Diego State vs Oregon State Spread Prediction for Week 3

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts San Diego State will cover the spread with 62.1% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both San Diego State and Oregon State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • San Diego State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games (+9.70 Units / 35% ROI)
  • San Diego State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 4 away games (+4.35 Units / 62% ROI)
  • San Diego State have covered the 1H Spread in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 92% ROI)
  • San Diego State has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 42% ROI)
  • San Diego State have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Oregon State have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Oregon State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 7 games (+7.17 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Oregon State have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 7 games (+7.05 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Oregon State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Oregon State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.05 Units / 21% ROI)

San Diego State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

San Diego State is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • San Diego State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • San Diego State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • San Diego State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Oregon State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oregon State is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Oregon State is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 17.24% ROI
  • Oregon State is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Oregon State is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI

San Diego State: Keys to the Game vs. Oregon State

San Diego State is 12-1 (.857) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season– tied for 10th-best in FBS; Average: .586

San Diego State is 15-3 (.714) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season– tied for 14th-best in FBS; Average: .512

San Diego State is 11-2 (.786) when not losing a fumble since the 2021 season– tied for 7th-best in FBS; Average: .504

San Diego State is 18-3 (.857) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: .562

Oregon State: Keys to the Game vs. San Diego State

#18 Oregon State is undefeated (5-0) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2021 season– tied for best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .570

#18 Oregon State was 5-2 (.714) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2022 season– tied for 4th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .375

#18 Oregon State is 5-2 (.714) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2022 season– tied for 4th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .359

#18 Oregon State is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2022 season– tied for 7th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .554

Matchup Notes for San Diego State vs. Oregon State

Oregon State’s WRs have just 176.5 receiving yards per game this season — fourth-worst among Pac-12 WRs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed 294.3 receiving yards per game this season — 20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oregon State’s TEs has been targeted 12 times this season — tied for fourth-most among Pac-12 TEs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed 883 receiving yards this season — most among FBS defenses.

Oregon State’s TEs has 7 receptions in 2 games (3.5 per game) this season — tied for fifth-best among Pac-12 TEs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed 24.7 receptions per game this season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

San Diego State’s WRs has gained 211 yards on 19 receptions (just 11.1 YPR) this season — tied for 28th-worst among FBS WRs. Oregon State’s defense has allowed just 8.1 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Pac-12 defenses.

San Diego State has gained 447 yards on 50 receptions (just 8.9 YPR) this season — tied for 10th-worst among FBS skill players. Oregon State’s defense has allowed just 8.1 Yards Per Reception this season — eighth-best among FBS defenses.

San Diego State’s QBs has thrown for 461 passing yards in 3 games (just 153.7 YPG) this season — ninth-worst among FBS teams. Oregon State’s defense has allowed just 191.0 passing yards per game this season — fifth-best among Pac-12 defenses.

San Diego State Offensive Stats & Trends

San Diego State’s WRs has gained 211 yards on 19 receptions (just 11.1 YPR) this season — tied for 28th-worst among FBS WRs. Oregon State’s defense has allowed just 8.1 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Pac-12 defenses.

San Diego State has gained 447 yards on 50 receptions (just 8.9 YPR) this season — tied for 10th-worst among FBS skill players. Oregon State’s defense has allowed just 8.1 Yards Per Reception this season — eighth-best among FBS defenses.

San Diego State’s QBs has thrown for 461 passing yards in 3 games (just 153.7 YPG) this season — ninth-worst among FBS teams. Oregon State’s defense has allowed just 191.0 passing yards per game this season — fifth-best among Pac-12 defenses.

San Diego State QBs have rushed for 59 yards in close and late situations this season– most among FBS Teams

San Diego State QBs have rushed for 163 yards this season– most among FBS Teams

Oregon State Offensive Stats & Trends

Oregon State’s WRs have just 176.5 receiving yards per game this season — fourth-worst among Pac-12 WRs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed 294.3 receiving yards per game this season — 20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oregon State’s TEs has been targeted 12 times this season — tied for fourth-most among Pac-12 TEs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed 883 receiving yards this season — most among FBS defenses.

#16 Oregon State TEs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

Oregon State’s TEs has 7 receptions in 2 games (3.5 per game) this season — tied for fifth-best among Pac-12 TEs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed 24.7 receptions per game this season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

#16 Oregon State TEs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for most among Power 5 Teams

San Diego State Aztecs Defensive Stats & Trends

San Diego State has 6 interceptions this season– most in FBS

San Diego State has averaged 3.00 interceptions per game (6/2) this season– tied for 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 0.85

San Diego State has allowed 28 first down receptions this season– 2nd-most in FBS

San Diego State has allowed 56 completions this season– most among Non-Power 5 Teams

San Diego State has 6 interceptions this season– most among Non-Power 5 Teams

Oregon State Beavers Defensive Stats & Trends

#16 Oregon State opponents has averaged 40.7 Passing Attempts per TD (529 Pass Attempts/13 Passing TDs) since last season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 20.5

#16 Oregon State has sacked opponents 5 times in the Red Zone since last season– tied for 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

#18 Oregon State sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (15/399) in the 2022 season– 5th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 7%

#18 Oregon State averaged a sack every 26.6 pass attempts (399 Pass Attempts/15 Sacks) in the 2022 season– 5th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 14.7

#18 Oregon State allowed 0.8 touchdowns per interception (10 TDs allowed, and 12 INT) in the 2022 season– tied for 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 1.8


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