- The Toledo Rockets are a -3 point favorite vs. the San Diego State Aztecs
- San Diego State vs. Toledo Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
- TV Channel: CBSN
San Diego State (1-2) visit Glass Bowl to take on Toledo (2-1) on Sep. 26 in Toledo, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.
The Toledo Rockets are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -3 (-108).
The San Diego State vs. Toledo Over/Under is 51.5 total points.
Bet now on Toledo Rockets vs San Diego State Aztecs & all NCAAF games with BetMGM
San Diego State vs. Toledo Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| San Diego State | +3 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +125 |
| Toledo | -3 -108 | 51.5 -112 | -150 |
San Diego State vs Toledo Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Toledo will win this game with 54.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the San Diego State Aztecs and the Toledo Rockets, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
San Diego State vs Toledo Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Toledo will cover the spread with 53.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Toledo Rockets vs San Diego State Aztecs and all games with BetMGM
San Diego State Best Bets Today
- San Diego State has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- San Diego State have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- San Diego State has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- San Diego State have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- San Diego State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.55 Units / 12% ROI)
Toledo Best Bets Today
- Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the Team Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 5% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
San Diego State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
San Diego State Aztecs is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).
- San Diego State is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -100% ROI
- San Diego State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- San Diego State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Toledo Rockets is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -3.03% ROI).
- Toledo is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Toledo is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Toledo is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
San Diego State: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo
San Diego State was 1-9 (.100) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-11th-worst in FBS; Average: .414
San Diego State was 1-9 (.100) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-5th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .390
San Diego State is 7-2 (.778) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes this season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .553
San Diego State was 1-4 (.200) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-11th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .462
Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. San Diego State
Toledo was 5-1 (.833) when not losing a fumble last season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .533
Toledo was 7-3 (.700) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .575
Toledo is winless (0-3) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .357
Toledo is winless (0-4) when allowing 22 or more points this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .265
Matchup Notes for San Diego State vs. Toledo
Toledo’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 11.6% of 397 attempts last season — T-31st-best among FBS offenses. San Diego State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 5.3% of attempts last season — 2nd-best among NonP5 defenses.
Toledo’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 11.6% of 397 attempts last season — T-31st-best among FBS offenses. San Diego State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 5.3% of attempts last season — best among Pac-12 defenses.
Toledo’s RBs averaged 9.7 yards after the catch last season — T-23rd-best among FBS RBs. San Diego State’s defense allowed just 9.6 RAC last season — T-best among Pac-12 defenses.
San Diego State’s WRs averaged 12.9 yards after the catch last season — 4th-best among Pac-12 WRs. Toledo’s defense allowed just 11.8 RAC to WRs last season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.
San Diego State’s WRs averaged 12.9 yards after the catch last season — 4th-best among Pac-12 WRs. Toledo’s defense allowed just 10.6 RAC last season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.
San Diego State’s offense threw for 2,050 passing yards in 13 games (just 157.7 YPG) last season — 13th-worst among FBS offenses. Toledo’s defense allowed just 158.0 passing yards per game last season — 6th-best among FBS defenses.
San Diego State Offensive Stats & Trends
San Diego State threw 0 TDs on 55 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter last season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.9
San Diego State have thrown 0 TDs on 55 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.9
San Diego State have averaged just 6.7 yards per completion (268 yards/40 completions) on 3rd down this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8
San Diego State’s WRs averaged 12.9 yards after the catch last season — 4th-best among Pac-12 WRs. Toledo’s defense allowed just 11.8 RAC to WRs last season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.
San Diego State’s WRs averaged 12.9 yards after the catch last season — 4th-best among Pac-12 WRs. Toledo’s defense allowed just 10.6 RAC last season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.
Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends
Toledo’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 11.6% of 397 attempts last season — T-31st-best among FBS offenses. San Diego State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 5.3% of attempts last season — 2nd-best among NonP5 defenses.
Toledo TEs caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Toledo’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 11.6% of 397 attempts last season — T-31st-best among FBS offenses. San Diego State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 5.3% of attempts last season — best among Pac-12 defenses.
Toledo’s RBs averaged 9.7 yards after the catch last season — T-23rd-best among FBS RBs. San Diego State’s defense allowed just 9.6 RAC last season — T-best among Pac-12 defenses.
Toledo’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 11.6% of 397 attempts last season — T-31st-best among FBS offenses. San Diego State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 5.3% of attempts last season — T-2nd-best among FBS defenses.
San Diego State Defensive Stats & Trends
San Diego State has allowed 9 rushing TDs on 458 carries (50.9 Carries Per TD) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 22.1
San Diego State forced 4 fumbles on 509 carries (127.2 Carries Per Fumble) last season– 4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 45.7
San Diego State allowed a Completion Pct of 75% (21 completions/28 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%
San Diego State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (23 completions/56 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%
San Diego State has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 22 of 416 attempts (5%) this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%
Toledo Defensive Stats & Trends
Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 9% (1 completions/11 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– best in FBS; Average: 63%
Toledo has allowed 255.2 yards from scrimmage per game this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 383.0
Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 9% (1 completions/11 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 63%
Toledo has not allowed a first down on a pass on 3rd and short this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 52%
Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 50% (177 completions/353 attempts) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
Bet now on Toledo Rockets vs San Diego State Aztecs and all games with BetMGM
More College Football Betting at BetMGM
College football betting is available at the online sportsbook throughout the season.
Whether you’re a first-time bettor checking out the best sportsbook promos, a casual fan betting on Indiana football national championship odds, Michigan football odds, or Ohio State odds this week, or a longtime diehard breaking down trends for live betting, there are entertainment options for everyone.
Visit the sportsbook today to place a college football bet online!
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
