San Jose St vs Toledo Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

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Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn (7) looks for a receiver during the first half of the team's Boca Raton Bowl NCAA college football game against Liberty, Tuesday, Dec. 20, 2022, in Boca Raton, Fla. (AP Photo/Jim Rassol)
(AP Photo/Jim Rassol)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 16, 2023, 11:14 AM
  • Toledo is a -8.5 point favorite vs. San Jose St
  • Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN+

The San Jose State Spartans visit The Glass Bowl to take on the Toledo Rockets on Sep. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Toledo.

Toledo is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).

The San Jose St vs. Toledo Over/Under is 57.5 total points.

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San Jose St vs. Toledo Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 3

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
San Jose St+7.5 -11057.5 -110+230
Toledo -7.5 -11057.5 -110-275

San Jose St vs Toledo Prediction for Week 3

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Toledo will win this game with 71.5% confidence.

San Jose St vs Toledo Spread Prediction for Week 3

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts San Jose State will cover the spread with 57.4% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both San Jose St and Toledo, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Bet now on Toledo vs San Jose St and all games with BetMGM


  • San Jose State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.50 Units / 29% ROI)
  • San Jose State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • San Jose State have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.10 Units / 51% ROI)
  • San Jose State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)
  • San Jose State has hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.45 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Toledo has hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Toledo has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)

San Jose St Against the Spread (ATS) Record

San Jose St is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • San Jose St is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
  • San Jose St is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • San Jose St is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI

Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Toledo is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Toledo is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
  • Toledo is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Toledo is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI

Matchup Notes for San Jose St vs. Toledo

Toledo’s RBs has gained 262 yards on 40 receptions (just 6.6 YPR) since the 2022 season — tied for 29th-worst among FBS RBs. San Jose State’s defense has allowed just 6.5 Yards Per Reception to RBs since the 2022 season — tied for 21st-best among FBS defenses.

Toledo’s RBs has 5 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for fourth-most among FBS RBs. San Jose State’s defense has allowed 6 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for third-most among FBS defenses.

Toledo’s RBs has 5 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for fourth-most among FBS RBs. San Jose State’s defense has allowed 6 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for second-most among NonP5 defenses.

San Jose State’s QBs has thrown for 4,208 passing yards in 15 games (280.5 YPG) since the 2022 season — 30th-best among FBS teams. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 195.9 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — fourth-best among NonP5 defenses.

San Jose State’s QBs has thrown for 4,208 passing yards in 15 games (280.5 YPG) since the 2022 season — 30th-best among FBS teams. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 195.9 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.

San Jose State’s WRs have just 132.7 receiving yards per game this season — 35th-worst among FBS WRs. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 154.0 receiving yards per game this season — 26th-best among FBS defenses.

San Jose St Offensive Stats & Trends

San Jose State RBs have averaged 7.5 Yards per Carry (403 yards/54 carries) in the 4th quarter since last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

San Jose State RBs have averaged 18.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (92 yards / 5 touches) on 2nd down this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5

San Jose State QBs have 14 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go since last season– tied for 3rd most among FBS Teams

San Jose State’s QBs has thrown for 4,208 passing yards in 15 games (280.5 YPG) since the 2022 season — 30th-best among FBS teams. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 195.9 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — fourth-best among NonP5 defenses.

San Jose State QBs have 24 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go since the 2021 season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends

Toledo Skill Players had 15 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter in the 2022 season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Toledo TEs caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter in the 2022 season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Toledo Skill Players caught 9 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter in the 2022 season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

Toledo WRs had 14 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter in the 2022 season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Toledo RBs did not rush for 0a TD on 54 carries (inf Carries Per TD) in close and late situations in the 2022 season– tied for worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 24.2

San Jose State Spartans Defensive Stats & Trends

San Jose State has sacked opponents 13 times in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– most among Non-Power 5 Teams

San Jose State tackled opponents for a loss on 16 of 58 rushing attempts (28% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

San Jose State sacked opponents 5 times in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– tied for 5th most in FBS

San Jose State tackled opponents for a loss on 16 of 58 rushing attempts (28% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 15%.

San Jose State has sacked opponents 13 times in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– most in FBS

Toledo Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends

Toledo has allowed 9 TD passes in close and late situations since last season– tied for most in FBS

Toledo allowed a passer rating of just 114.3 (351.0 Pass Attempts) in the 2022 season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 133.8

Toledo has allowed 14 TD passes in close and late situations since the 2021 season– tied for most in FBS

Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (65 completions/150 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2021 season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 55%

Toledo has allowed opponents to catch just 65 of 150 passes (43% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long since the 2021 season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 55%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.