- SMU Mustangs is a -3.5 point favorite vs. Florida State Seminoles
- SMU vs. Florida State Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN
SMU (0-0) visit Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium to take on Florida State (1-0) on Sep. 7 in Tallahassee, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm.
The SMU Mustangs are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).
The SMU vs. Florida State Over/Under is 53.5 total points.
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SMU vs. Florida State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| SMU | -3.5 -105 | 53.5 -108 | -185 |
| Florida State | +3.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | +150 |
SMU vs Florida State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts SMU will win this game with 56.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both SMU Mustangs and Florida State Seminoles, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
SMU vs Florida State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts SMU will cover the spread with 55.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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SMU Best Bets Today
- SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.20 Units / 73% ROI)
- SMU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 71% ROI)
- SMU has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- SMU has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- SMU have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 91% ROI)
SMU: Keys to the Game vs. Florida State
SMU was 10-2 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-16th-best in FBS; Average: .602
SMU was 11-1 (.917) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-8th-best in FBS; Average: .628
SMU was 11-1 (.917) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .657
SMU was 8-2 (.800) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .668
Florida State: Keys to the Game vs. SMU
Florida State was winless (0-8) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .451
Florida State was 1-10 (.091) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462
Florida State was winless (0-8) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .418
Florida State was 1-7 (.125) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .443
Matchup Notes for SMU vs. Florida State
Florida State’s TEs had 32 receptions in 12 games (just 2.7 per game) last season — 4th-worst among ACC TEs. SMU’s defense allowed 24.5 receptions per game last season — T-worst among P5 defenses.
Florida State’s TEs had 32 receptions in 12 games (just 2.7 per game) last season — 4th-worst among ACC TEs. SMU’s defense allowed 24.5 receptions per game last season — T-worst among ACC defenses.
Florida State’s TEs had 32 receptions in 12 games (just 2.7 per game) last season — 4th-worst among ACC TEs. SMU’s defense allowed 24.5 receptions per game last season — T-2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
SMU’s QBs threw for 3,680 passing yards in 13 games (283.1 YPG) last season — 14th-best among FBS teams. Florida State’s defense allowed just 190.8 passing yards per game last season — 27th-best among FBS defenses.
SMU’s offense threw for 3,680 passing yards in 13 games (283.1 YPG) last season — 14th-best among FBS offenses. Florida State’s defense allowed just 190.8 passing yards per game last season — 27th-best among FBS defenses.
SMU’s TEs had 59 receptions in 13 games (4.5 per game) last season — 4th-best among ACC TEs. Florida State’s defense allowed just 16.9 receptions per game last season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
SMU Offensive Stats & Trends
SMU TEs had 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
SMU’s QBs threw for 3,680 passing yards in 13 games (283.1 YPG) last season — 14th-best among FBS teams. Florida State’s defense allowed just 190.8 passing yards per game last season — 27th-best among FBS defenses.
SMU TEs averaged 22.5 yards per reception (293 yards/13 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.3
SMU TEs caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
SMU RBs averaged 10.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (306 yards / 29 touches) on 3rd and short last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.5
Florida State Offensive Stats & Trends
Florida State’s TEs had 32 receptions in 12 games (just 2.7 per game) last season — 4th-worst among ACC TEs. SMU’s defense allowed 24.5 receptions per game last season — T-worst among P5 defenses.
Florida State’s TEs had 32 receptions in 12 games (just 2.7 per game) last season — 4th-worst among ACC TEs. SMU’s defense allowed 24.5 receptions per game last season — T-worst among ACC defenses.
Florida State’s TEs had 32 receptions in 12 games (just 2.7 per game) last season — 4th-worst among ACC TEs. SMU’s defense allowed 24.5 receptions per game last season — T-2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Florida State averaged 16.3 yards per completion (849 yards/52 completions) on 3rd down last season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8
Florida State gained 40+ yards on 16 of their 200 receptions (8%) last season– 5th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%
SMU Defensive Stats & Trends
SMU allowed 5 rushing TDs on 456 carries (91.2 Carries Per TD) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 26.1
SMU allowed 5 rushing TDs on 456 carries (91.2 Carries Per TD) last season– best in FBS; Average: 24
SMU allowed 5 rushing TDs on 73 carries (14.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 4.7
SMU allowed 5 rushing TDs on 73 carries (14.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.1
SMU allowed 9 TD passes in close and late situations last season– most among Power Conference Teams
Florida State Defensive Stats & Trends
Florida State intercepted 4 of 324 attempts (81.0 pass attempts per int.) last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 34.9
Florida State forced 4 fumbles on 477 carries (119.2 Carries Per Fumble) last season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 41.8
Florida State allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (201 completions/415 attempts) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%
Florida State allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (201 completions/415 attempts) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%
Florida State allowed a Completion Pct of just 25% (4 completions/16 attempts) on 3rd and short in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%
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