SMU vs South Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:50 PM
  • SMU (5-4) are -17.5 point favorites vs South Florida (1-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 72 points
  • Watch the game on ESPNU

The SMU Mustangs (6-5) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the South Florida Bulls (1-10) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST in Tampa.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for SMU vs. South Florida is total points.

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SMU vs. South Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
SMU
South Florida

SMU vs South Florida Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts SMU will win this game with 72.1% confidence.

SMU vs South Florida Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts South Florida will cover the spread with 74.1% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both SMU and South Florida, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best SMU Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for SMU players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tre Siggers has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Best South Florida Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for South Florida players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Gerry Bohanon has hit the Passing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 61% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.95 Units / 18% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+5.80 Units / 20% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 52% ROI)
  • SMU have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.45 Units / 41% ROI)
  • SMU have covered the 1H Spread in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • South Florida has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+8.68 Units / 70% ROI)
  • South Florida has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.90 Units / 72% ROI)
  • South Florida has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)
  • South Florida has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.60 Units / 33% ROI)
  • South Florida have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.24 Units / 28% ROI)

SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

SMU has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • SMU is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 7.27% ROI
  • SMU is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • SMU is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

South Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

South Florida has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • South Florida is 0-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.6 Units / -100% ROI
  • South Florida is 6-2 when betting the Over for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI
  • South Florida is 2-6 when betting the Under for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI

SMU: Keys to the Game vs. South Florida

SMU is 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes — tied for 13th-best in FBS; Average: .561

South Florida: Keys to the Game vs. SMU

South Florida is winless (0-17) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .395

South Florida is winless (0-14) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times — worst in FBS; Average: .420

South Florida is winless (0-15) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .423

South Florida is winless (0-17) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards — worst in FBS; Average: .451

Matchup Notes for SMU vs. South Florida

SMU have 325.9 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-best among FBS skill players. South Florida’s defense has allowed 292.6 receiving yards per game this season — third-worst among NonP5 defenses.

SMU’s WRs have 270.9 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-best among FBS WRs. South Florida’s defense has allowed 292.6 receiving yards per game this season — third-worst among NonP5 defenses.

SMU have 313.0 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS skill players. South Florida’s defense has allowed 275.6 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — second-worst among NonP5 defenses.

SMU Offensive Stats & Trends

SMU QBs have 12 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

SMU QBs have 47 completions for 20 or more yards this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

SMU WRs have 42 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among FBS Teams

SMU QBs have 25 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down since last season– 4th most among FBS Teams

SMU TEs have caught 7 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– tied for 3rd most among FBS Teams

South Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

South Florida Skill Players have just one touchdown on 46 receptions in close and late situations since last season– 5th worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.6

South Florida RBs have no touchdowns on 52 receptions since last season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 20.8

South Florida Punters have placed 12% of punts inside the 20 (3/25) this season– 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 32%

South Florida QBs have averaged 7.7 Yards per Carry (231 yards/30 carries) in the 1st half this season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 2.8

SMU Mustangs Defensive Stats & Trends

SMU has allowed 7 TDs in close and late situations this season– tied for 4th most in FBS

SMU has allowed 2.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (61 yards / 28 touches) on 3rd and short this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 5.2

SMU has allowed 2.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (61 yards / 28 touches) on 3rd and short this season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 4.9

SMU has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 1 of 22 carries (4%) on 3rd and long this season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 19%

SMU defense has allowed 82 completions for 20 or more yards since last season– 4th fewest among Non-Power 5 Teams

South Florida Bulls Defensive Stats & Trends

South Florida has allowed a Completion Pct of 74% (193 completions/262 attempts) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 61%

South Florida has averaged a sack every 30.5 pass attempts (640 Pass Attempts/21 Sacks) since last season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 14.2

South Florida has allowed 8.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (9,631 yards / 1,150 touches) since last season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 6.8

South Florida has averaged a sack every 30.5 pass attempts (640 Pass Attempts/21 Sacks) since last season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 14.0

South Florida has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (21/640) since last season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 7%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.