South Alabama vs Oklahoma State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

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Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy talks to his players during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Kansas State Saturday, Oct. 29, 2022, in Manhattan, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 16, 2023, 11:14 AM
  • Oklahoma State is a -7 point favorite vs. South Alabama
  • Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN+

The South Alabama Jaguars visit Boone Pickens Stadium to take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Sep. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Stillwater.

Oklahoma State is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).

The South Alabama vs. Oklahoma State Over/Under is 48.5 total points.

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South Alabama vs. Oklahoma State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 3

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
South Alabama+7 -11048.5 -110+220
Oklahoma State -7 -11048.5 -110-275

South Alabama vs Oklahoma State Prediction for Week 3

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Oklahoma State will win this game with 69.3% confidence.

South Alabama vs Oklahoma State Spread Prediction for Week 3

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Oklahoma State will cover the spread with 68.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both South Alabama and Oklahoma State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • South Alabama has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.95 Units / 41% ROI)
  • South Alabama has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+3.60 Units / 35% ROI)
  • South Alabama has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • South Alabama has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+2.80 Units / 6% ROI)
  • South Alabama has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Oklahoma State has hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Oklahoma State has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Oklahoma State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.65 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Oklahoma State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.65 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Oklahoma State has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.95 Units / 10% ROI)

Best Oklahoma State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Oklahoma State players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brennan Presley has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.65 Units / 11% ROI)

South Alabama Against the Spread (ATS) Record

South Alabama is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).

  • South Alabama is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
  • South Alabama is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • South Alabama is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Oklahoma State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oklahoma State is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • Oklahoma State is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 74.07% ROI
  • Oklahoma State is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
  • Oklahoma State is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI

South Alabama: Keys to the Game vs. Oklahoma State

South Alabama is 9-1 (.818) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2022 season– tied for 10th-best in FBS; Average: .536

South Alabama was 9-2 (.750) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2022 season– tied for 13th-best in FBS; Average: .513

South Alabama is 8-1 (.800) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2022 season– 13th-best in FBS; Average: .531

South Alabama is 8-1 (.800) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2022 season– tied for 8th-best in FBS; Average: .505

Oklahoma State: Keys to the Game vs. South Alabama

Oklahoma State is undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2022 season– tied for best in FBS; Average: .584

Oklahoma State was undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush in the 2022 season– tied for best in FBS; Average: .587

Oklahoma State is 11-2 (.647) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2021 season– 6th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .409

Oklahoma State is 13-5 (.565) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2021 season– 15th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .436

Matchup Notes for South Alabama vs. Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.5% of 80 attempts this season — 29th-worst among FBS offenses. South Alabama’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 21.6% of attempts this season — fourth-best among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma State’s offense has thrown for 4,129 passing yards in 15 games (275.3 YPG) since the 2022 season — 21st-best among FBS offenses. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 265.7 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma State’s QBs has thrown for 4,264 passing yards in 15 games (284.3 YPG) since the 2022 season — 24th-best among FBS teams. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 265.7 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 27th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Alabama’s offense has thrown for 3,938 passing yards in 15 games (262.5 YPG) since the 2022 season — tied for 34th-best among FBS offenses. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed 264.5 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 30th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Alabama’s WRs have 197.0 receiving yards per game since the 2022 season — 31st-best among FBS WRs. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed 183.6 receiving yards per game to WRs since the 2022 season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

South Alabama’s QBs has thrown for 4,146 passing yards in 15 games (276.4 YPG) since the 2022 season — 33rd-best among FBS teams. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed 264.5 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 30th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Alabama Offensive Stats & Trends

South Alabama’s offense has thrown for 3,938 passing yards in 15 games (262.5 YPG) since the 2022 season — tied for 34th-best among FBS offenses. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed 264.5 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 30th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Alabama’s WRs have 197.0 receiving yards per game since the 2022 season — 31st-best among FBS WRs. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed 183.6 receiving yards per game to WRs since the 2022 season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

South Alabama’s QBs has thrown for 4,146 passing yards in 15 games (276.4 YPG) since the 2022 season — 33rd-best among FBS teams. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed 264.5 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 30th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Alabama have 261.1 receiving yards per game since the 2022 season — 35th-best among FBS skill players. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed 254.9 receiving yards per game since the 2022 season — tied for 27th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Alabama’s WRs have 197.0 receiving yards per game since the 2022 season — 31st-best among FBS WRs. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed 254.9 receiving yards per game since the 2022 season — tied for 27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma State Offensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.5% of 80 attempts this season — 29th-worst among FBS offenses. South Alabama’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 21.6% of attempts this season — fourth-best among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma State’s offense has thrown for 4,129 passing yards in 15 games (275.3 YPG) since the 2022 season — 21st-best among FBS offenses. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 265.7 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma State TEs have no touchdowns on 2 receptions since the 2021 season– tied for 2nd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.2

Oklahoma State RBs have fumbled 7 times in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season– most among FBS Teams

Oklahoma State Skill Players have fumbled 9 times in close and late situations since the 2021 season– most among FBS Teams

South Alabama Jaguars Defensive Stats & Trends

South Alabama has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 7 of 15 attempts (47%) this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 10%

South Alabama has forced 4 fumbles this season– tied for 2nd-most among Non-Power 5 Teams

South Alabama has allowed 21.4 yards per completion (299 yards/14 completions) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 11.8

South Alabama has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 7 of 15 attempts (47%) this season– best in FBS; Average: 9%

South Alabama has forced 4 fumbles this season– tied for 2nd-most in FBS

Oklahoma State Cowboys Defensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma State tackled opponents for a loss on 9 of 26 rushing attempts (35% TFL%) on 3rd and short in the 2022 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%.

Oklahoma State has tackled opponents for a loss on 24 of 79 rushing attempts (30% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2021 season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 11%.

Oklahoma State has tackled opponents for a loss on 24 of 79 rushing attempts (30% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2021 season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%.

Oklahoma State did not record a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.6

Oklahoma State tackled opponents for a loss on 9 of 26 rushing attempts (35% TFL%) on 3rd and short in the 2022 season– best in FBS; Average: 12%.


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.