South Alabama vs Western Kentucky Prediction, Odds, Prop Bets: New Orleans Bowl

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 21, 2022, 11:25 AM
  • South Alabama (10-2) are -7.5 point favorites vs Western Kentucky (8-5)
  • Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
  • Watch the New Orleans Bowl game on ESPN

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (10-3) visit Caesars Superdome to take on the South Alabama Jaguars (9-5) on Dec. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EST in New Orleans for the New Orleans Bowl.

are betting favorites in Week 17, with the spread sitting at ().

The South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky Over/Under is total points.

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South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
South Alabama
Western Kentucky

South Alabama vs Western Kentucky Prediction:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts South Alabama will win this game with 70.5% confidence.

South Alabama vs Western Kentucky Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts South Alabama will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both South Alabama and Western Kentucky, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • Western Kentucky have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.40 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Western Kentucky have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.40 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Western Kentucky has hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.75 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Western Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.54 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Western Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 65% ROI)
  • South Alabama has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • South Alabama has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+6.85 Units / 36% ROI)
  • South Alabama has hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • South Alabama has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.95 Units / 22% ROI)
  • South Alabama have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.75 Units / 34% ROI)

South Alabama Against the Spread (ATS) Record

South Alabama has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • South Alabama is 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -12.59% ROI
  • South Alabama is 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
  • South Alabama is 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI

Western Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Western Kentucky has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Western Kentucky is 10-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.3 Units / 17.53% ROI
  • Western Kentucky is 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 19.7% ROI
  • Western Kentucky is 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -28.03% ROI

South Alabama: Keys to the Game vs. Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky is 9-4 (.692) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season– 14th-best in FBS; Average: .446

Western Kentucky is 12-2 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2021 season– tied for 13th-best in FBS; Average: .621

Western Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. South Alabama

South Alabama is undefeated (7-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays — tied for 4th-best in FBS; Average: .514

South Alabama is 8-1 (.800) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — tied for 7th-best in FBS; Average: .501

South Alabama is 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities — tied for 10th-best in FBS; Average: .561

South Alabama is 8-1 (.800) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for 10th-best in FBS; Average: .509

Matchup Notes for South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky’s RBs has gained 106 yards on 25 receptions (just 4.2 YPR) this season — worst among FBS RBs. South Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for third-best among NonP5 defenses.

Western Kentucky’s RBs has 4 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for third-fewest among FBS RBs. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 8 rushing TDs this season — tied for third-fewest among NonP5 defenses.

South Alabama Offensive Stats & Trends

Western Kentucky Skill Players have averaged 31.3 receptions per game (782/25) since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 19.0

Western Kentucky WRs have averaged 26.8 receptions per game (670/25) since last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

Western Kentucky Skill Players have caught 91 touchdown passes since last season– most among FBS Teams

Western Kentucky QBs have 76 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down since last season– most among FBS Teams

Western Kentucky WRs have averaged 12.0 receptions per game (299/25) in the 2nd half since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.9

Western Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends

South Alabama RBs have rushed for 6 TDs in close and late situations this season– most among FBS Teams

South Alabama Skill Players have averaged just 8.9 yards per reception (490 yards/55 catches) with over 10 yards to go since last season– 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.4

South Alabama WRs have averaged just 10.2 yards per reception (358 yards/35 catches) with over 10 yards to go since last season– tied for 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 14.0

South Alabama Skill Players have caught 60 of 85 passes (71% Reception Pct) on 3rd down this season– 4th best among FBS Teams; Average: 59%

South Alabama RBs have caught 42 of 48 passes (88% Reception Pct) this season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 73%

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Defensive Stats & Trends

Western Kentucky has 35 interceptions since last season– 2nd most in FBS

Western Kentucky has averaged 1.40 interceptions per game (35/25) since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 0.80

Western Kentucky has 35 interceptions since last season– most among Non-Power 5 Teams

Western Kentucky has allowed 21 TDs in close and late situations since last season– most in FBS

Western Kentucky has allowed 7.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (228 yards / 29 touches) on 3rd and short this season– 5th worst in FBS; Average: 4.9

South Alabama Jaguars Defensive Stats & Trends

South Alabama has allowed 28.5 carries per game (314 carries / 11 games) this season– 3rd lowest among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 37.2

South Alabama has allowed a Completion Pct of 90% (9 completions/10 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– 4th worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 60%

South Alabama has allowed just 11.2 yards per completion (2,516 yards/225 completions) this season– tied for 4th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.9

South Alabama has allowed 8 rushing TDs on 314 carries (39.2 Carries Per TD) this season– 4th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 23.2

South Alabama has allowed a Completion Pct of just 47% (67 completions/142 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since last season– tied for 5th best in FBS; Average: 59%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.