Southern Miss vs Texas State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 8

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 21, 2022, 8:26 AM
  • (3-5) are point favorites vs (3-5)
  • Total (Over/Under): points
  • Watch the game on ESPN+

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles (3-5) visit Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium to take on the Texas State Bobcats (3-5) on Oct. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:00pm EDT in San Marcos.

are betting favorites in Week 8, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Southern Miss vs. Texas State is total points.

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Southern Miss vs. Texas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 8

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Southern Miss
Texas State

Southern Miss vs Texas State Prediction for Week 8

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Texas State will win this game with 51.7% confidence.

Southern Miss vs Texas State Spread Prediction for Week 8

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas State will cover the spread with 58.7% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Southern Miss and Texas State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


  • Southern Mississippi has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+8.70 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Southern Mississippi has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Southern Mississippi have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.52 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Southern Mississippi has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Southern Mississippi have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.00 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.50 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+8.40 Units / 76% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 4 games at home (+6.00 Units / 76% ROI)
  • Texas State have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Southern Miss Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Southern Miss has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

    • Southern Miss is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
    • Southern Miss is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
    • Southern Miss is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

    Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Texas State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

    • Texas State is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
    • Texas State is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
    • Texas State is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

    Southern Miss: Keys to the Game vs. Texas State

    Southern Miss is 1-6 (.143) when in a one score game since the 2020 season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: .493

    Southern Miss is winless (0-8) when not forcing a fumble — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .437

    Southern Miss is 1-12 (.077) when not forcing a fumble since the 2020 season– 9th-worst in FBS; Average: .443

    Southern Miss is winless (0-10) when allowing 22 or more points — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .281

    Southern Miss Offensive Stats & Trends

    Southern Miss have been sacked on 21% of pass attempts (22/104) in the 4th quarter since last season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 7%

    Southern Miss have been sacked on 12% of pass attempts (53/425) since last season– 5th worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 7%

    Southern Miss have been sacked on 21% of pass attempts (22/104) in the 4th quarter since last season– worst among Non-Power 5 Offenses; Average: 8%

    Southern Miss Skill Players have been targeted 31 times with 4-6 yards to go since last season– 5th fewest among FBS Teams

    Southern Miss Skill Players have caught just 3 of 11 passes (27% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone this season– 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 58%

    Texas State Offensive Stats & Trends

    Texas State TEs have no touchdowns on 15 receptions since last season– tied for 4th worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 8.9

    Texas State WRs have averaged just 10.2 yards per reception (642 yards/63 catches) in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.4

    Texas State Skill Players have averaged just 8.9 yards per reception (679 yards/76 catches) in the 4th quarter since last season– 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

    Texas State TEs have been targeted 0.5 times per game (1/2) in the 2nd half since last season– 5th lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 2.6

    Texas State QBs have averaged just -4.2 Yards per Carry (-96 yards/23 carries) this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 2.9

    Southern Miss Golden Eagles Defensive Stats & Trends

    Southern Miss has forced one fumble on 191 carries this season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 39.0

    Southern Miss has forced one fumble on 191 carries this season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 39.5

    Southern Miss has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (18/162) this season– 5th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 7%

    Southern Miss has averaged 3.6 sacks per game this season– tied for 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 2.1

    Southern Miss has allowed a passer rating of just 91.3 in close and late situations (76.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 125.8

    Texas State Bobcats Defensive Stats & Trends

    Texas State has allowed 6 touchdowns on 139 completions (23.2 Completions Per TD) this season– 4th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.4

    Texas State opponents has averaged 35.0 Passing Attempts per TD (210 Pass Attempts/6 Passing TDs) this season– 5th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 18.6

    Texas State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 36 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

    Texas State has allowed a passer rating of just 88.4 in the Red Zone (25.0 Pass Attempts) this season– 4th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 172.3

    Texas State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 36 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.


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