TCU vs Baylor Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 18, 2022, 10:35 AM
  • TCU (10-0) are -2.5 point favorites vs Baylor (6-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): 58 points

The TCU Horned Frogs (11-0) visit McLane Stadium to take on the Baylor Bears (6-5) on Nov. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Waco.

are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for TCU vs. Baylor is total points.

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TCU vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
TCU
Baylor

TCU vs Baylor Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts TCU will win this game with 53.5% confidence.

TCU vs Baylor Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts TCU will cover the spread with 51.9% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both TCU and Baylor, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best TCU Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for TCU players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kendre Miller has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Max Duggan has hit the TD Passes Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+4.20 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Quentin Johnston has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Max Duggan has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Taye Barber has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.45 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Max Duggan has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 11 games (+2.15 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Derius Davis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+2.00 Units / 43% ROI)

Best Baylor Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Baylor players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ben Sims has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Blake Shapen has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 74% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+12.45 Units / 33% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • TCU have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.90 Units / 63% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.35 Units / 27% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 away games (+5.85 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.25 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Baylor have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Baylor have covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.55 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)

TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

TCU has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • TCU is 9-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +11 Units / 53.14% ROI
  • TCU is 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
  • TCU is 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Baylor is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -6.1% ROI
  • Baylor is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Baylor is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

TCU: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

#8 TCU is 11-5 (.579) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays — tied for 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .428

#8 TCU is 9-3 (.643) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties — 6th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .383

#8 TCU is 10-1 (.909) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush — 6th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .600

#8 TCU is 9-6 (.600) when sacking the QB less than 3 times — 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .378

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. TCU

Baylor is 8-2 (.800) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team — tied for 9th-best in FBS; Average: .497

Baylor is undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes — tied for best in FBS; Average: .561

Baylor is 10-5 (.667) when sacking the QB less than 3 times — tied for 12th-best in FBS; Average: .379

Baylor is 13-5 (.591) when rushing for more than 100 yards — 13th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .457

Matchup Notes for TCU vs. Baylor

Baylor’s offense has 30 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for most among FBS offenses. TCU’s defense has allowed 12 rushing TDs this season — fourth-fewest among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s RBs has 19 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — fourth-most among FBS RBs. TCU’s defense has allowed 12 rushing TDs this season — fourth-fewest among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s RBs has 22 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for fourth-most among FBS RBs. TCU’s defense has allowed 12 rushing TDs this season — fourth-fewest among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s WRs has gained 4,414 yards on 284 receptions (15.5 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for second-best among Power 5 WRs. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 11.5 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU has gained 5,212 yards on 370 receptions (14.1 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for third-best among Power 5 skill players. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 11.5 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s RBs has rushed for 3,373 yards on 550 carries (6.1 YPC) since the 2021 season — tied for third-best among FBS RBs. Baylor’s defense have allowed just 3.6 YPC since the 2021 season — third-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU Offensive Stats & Trends

TCU’s WRs has gained 4,414 yards on 284 receptions (15.5 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for second-best among Power 5 WRs. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 11.5 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big 12 defenses.

#4 TCU WRs have averaged 17.7 yards per reception (866 yards/49 catches) in the 4th quarter since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.1

TCU has gained 5,212 yards on 370 receptions (14.1 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for third-best among Power 5 skill players. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 11.5 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big 12 defenses.

#4 TCU RBs have averaged 6.1 Yards per Carry (3,373 yards/550 carries) since last season– tied for 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

#4 TCU RBs have averaged 7.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (2,276 yards / 324 touches) on 1st down since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends

Baylor RBs have rushed for 10 TDs in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

Baylor WRs have averaged 23.2 yards per reception (278 yards/12 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.5

Baylor TEs have been targeted 25 times in short yardage situations since last season– most among FBS Teams

Baylor TEs have been targeted 25 times in short yardage situations since last season– most among Power 5 Teams

Baylor RBs have averaged 7.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (419 yards / 54 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

TCU Horned Frogs Defensive Stats & Trends

#4 TCU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (22 completions/57 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 54%

#4 TCU has forced 8 fumbles on 775 carries (96.9 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 41.9

#4 TCU has forced 8 fumbles on 775 carries (96.9 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– worst in FBS; Average: 41.4

#4 TCU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 46% (33 completions/72 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since last season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 59%

#4 TCU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 46% (33 completions/72 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 59%

Baylor Bears Defensive Stats & Trends

Baylor has sacked opposing QBs just once on 75 pass attempts in the Red Zone since last season– 4th worst in FBS; Average: 16.0

Baylor has sacked opposing QBs just once on 75 pass attempts in the Red Zone since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.2

Baylor has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 57 rushing attempts (5% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– tied for 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.

Baylor has allowed first downs on 9% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season– best in FBS; Average: 29%

Baylor has allowed first downs on 9% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 28%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.