TCU vs Cincinnati Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 14

BetMGM Betting Nov 26, 2024, 2:43 PM

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Cincinnati running back Corey Kiner (21) scores against Central Florida defensive back Decorian Patterson (11) during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Jeff Dean)

(AP Photo/Jeff Dean)

TCU is a -3.5 point favorite vs. Cincinnati
TCU vs. Cincinnati Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN+

The TCU Horned Frogs (7-4) visit Nippert Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bearcats (5-6) on Nov. 30 in Cincinnati, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:00pm EST.

TCU is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The TCU vs. Cincinnati Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

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TCU vs. Cincinnati Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
TCU	-3.5 -110	58.5 -110	-155
Cincinnati	+3.5 -110	58.5 -110	+130

TCU vs Cincinnati Prediction:

The winning team model predicts TCU will win this game with 57.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both TCU and Cincinnati, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

TCU vs Cincinnati Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Cincinnati will cover the spread with 60.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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TCU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

TCU have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 86% ROI)
TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.00 Units / 48% ROI)
TCU has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.40 Units / 29% ROI)
TCU has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 52% ROI)

Cincinnati Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Cincinnati have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.95 Units / 52% ROI)
Cincinnati have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.40 Units / 30% ROI)
Cincinnati has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.70 Units / 25% ROI)
Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Cincinnati has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.55 Units / 17% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for TCU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best TCU Player Prop Bets Today

Josh Hoover has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
JP Richardson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jack Bech has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Savion Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Drake Dabney has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Cincinnati players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cincinnati Player Prop Best Bets Today

Corey Kiner has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Xzavier Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 37% ROI)
Xzavier Henderson has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

TCU is 4-7 against the spread this college football season (-3.75 Units / -30.99% ROI).

TCU is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.2 Units / -19.66% ROI
TCU is 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
TCU is 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI

Cincinnati Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Cincinnati is 4-6 against the spread this college football season (-2.6 Units / -21.58% ROI).

Cincinnati is 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -23.36% ROI
Cincinnati is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -21.49% ROI
Cincinnati is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 13.22% ROI

TCU: Keys to the Game vs. Cincinnati

TCU is 3-9 (.250) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .525

TCU is 2-9 (.182) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– 9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .399

TCU is 10-2 (.833) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .671

TCU is 1-7 (.125) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– 9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .406

Cincinnati: Keys to the Game vs. TCU

Cincinnati is winless (0-4) when not forcing a fumble this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .504

Cincinnati is 4-14 (.222) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .454

Cincinnati is 4-11 (.267) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498

Cincinnati is 2-9 (.182) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .509

Matchup Notes for TCU vs. Cincinnati

Cincinnati’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.4% of 360 attempts this season — T-3rd-worst among FBS offenses. TCU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.2% of attempts this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.

Cincinnati’s TEs has 47 receptions in 11 games (4.3 per game) this season — 2nd-best among Big 12 TEs. TCU’s defense has allowed just 2.6 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.

Cincinnati has gained 2,677 yards on 231 receptions (just 11.6 YPR) this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 skill players. TCU’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.

TCU’s WRs has 436 receptions in 23 games (19.0 per game) since the 2023 season — best among Big 12 WRs. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed just 10.5 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.

TCU has 605 receptions in 23 games (26.3 per game) since the 2023 season — best among Big 12 skill players. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed just 16.6 receptions per game since the 2023 season — best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s WRs has 436 receptions in 23 games (19.0 per game) since the 2023 season — best among Big 12 WRs. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed just 16.6 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 15th-best among FBS defenses.

TCU Offensive Stats & Trends

Cincinnati Offensive Stats & Trends

Cincinnati RBs have averaged 9.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (154 yards / 17 touches) on 3rd and short this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.5

Cincinnati Skill Players have averaged just 10.1 yards per reception (595 yards/59 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.8

Cincinnati WRs have averaged just 10.4 yards per reception (353 yards/34 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 13.1

TCU Horned Frogs Defensive Stats & Trends

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 50 of 423 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

TCU has sacked opponents 4 times in the Red Zone this season– T-most in the Big 12

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 31 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 112 of 890 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

TCU has allowed just 10.8 yards per completion (2,152 yards/200 completions) this season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: 11.8

Cincinnati Bearcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Cincinnati has no interceptions (92 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 44.6

Cincinnati has no interceptions and 22 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 10.6

Cincinnati has no interceptions and 22 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3

Cincinnati has no interceptions (92 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 38.6

Cincinnati has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 48 of their 778 carries (6%) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 4%