- The Kansas is a -2.5 point favorite vs. TCU
- The TCU vs. Kansas Total(Over/Under): 59.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The TCU Horned Frogs (2-2) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas Jayhawks (1-3) on Sep. 28 in Kansas City, MO. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
Kansas is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-105).
The TCU vs. Kansas Over/Under is 59.5 total points.
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TCU vs. Kansas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| TCU | +2.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 | +110 |
| Kansas | -2.5 -105 | 59.5 -105 | -135 |
TCU vs Kansas Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Kansas will win this game with 54.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both TCU and Kansas, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
TCU vs Kansas Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kansas will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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TCU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- TCU has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Kansas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Kansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.65 Units / 49% ROI)
- Kansas have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- Kansas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kansas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- Kansas have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for TCU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best TCU Player Prop Bets Today
- Josh Hoover has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Josh Hoover has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 3 games (+3.10 Units / 67% ROI)
- Savion Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.05 Units / 105% ROI)
- Drake Dabney has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Kansas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Kansas Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Lawrence Arnold has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- Devin Neal has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Luke Grimm has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Quentin Skinner has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Daniel Hishaw Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)
TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record
TCU is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -75% ROI).
Kansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Kansas is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).
TCU: Keys to the Game vs. Kansas
TCU is 1-7 (.125) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .536
TCU is 2-9 (.182) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst in FBS; Average: .452
TCU is 3-9 (.250) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .466
TCU is 1-7 (.125) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: .507
Kansas: Keys to the Game vs. TCU
Kansas is 9-3 (.750) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .547
Kansas is 5-7 (.417) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .614
Kansas is 7-5 (.583) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .445
Kansas is 10-4 (.714) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .620
Matchup Notes for TCU vs. Kansas
Kansas’s QBs has thrown for 677 passing yards in 4 games (just 169.2 YPG) this season — 23rd-worst among FBS teams. TCU’s defense has allowed just 150.0 passing yards per game this season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Kansas’s QBs has thrown for 677 passing yards in 4 games (just 169.2 YPG) this season — 23rd-worst among FBS teams. TCU’s defense has allowed just 150.0 passing yards per game this season — 25th-best among FBS defenses.
Kansas’s offense has thrown for 677 passing yards in 4 games (just 169.2 YPG) this season — 22nd-worst among FBS offenses. TCU’s defense has allowed just 150.0 passing yards per game this season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
TCU has 118 receptions in 4 games (29.5 per game) this season — best among FBS skill players. Kansas’s defense has allowed just 14.0 receptions per game this season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
TCU’s WRs has 92 receptions in 4 games (23.0 per game) this season — best among Big 12 WRs. Kansas’s defense has allowed just 8.5 receptions per game to WRs this season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.
TCU’s WRs has 92 receptions in 4 games (23.0 per game) this season — best among Big 12 WRs. Kansas’s defense has allowed just 14.0 receptions per game this season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
TCU Offensive Stats & Trends
TCU WRs have caught 9 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
TCU WRs have caught 9 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– most among Big 12 Teams
TCU WRs caught 4 touchdown passes last week– most among Big 12 Teams
TCU Skill Players caught 4 touchdown passes last week– most among Big 12 Teams
TCU WRs have 14 receptions in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
Kansas Offensive Stats & Trends
Kansas TEs have averaged 17.9 yards per reception (340 yards/19 catches) on 1st down since the 2023 season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.8
Kansas’s QBs has thrown for 677 passing yards in 4 games (just 169.2 YPG) this season — 23rd-worst among FBS teams. TCU’s defense has allowed just 150.0 passing yards per game this season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Kansas’s QBs has thrown for 677 passing yards in 4 games (just 169.2 YPG) this season — 23rd-worst among FBS teams. TCU’s defense has allowed just 150.0 passing yards per game this season — 25th-best among FBS defenses.
Kansas’s offense has thrown for 677 passing yards in 4 games (just 169.2 YPG) this season — 22nd-worst among FBS offenses. TCU’s defense has allowed just 150.0 passing yards per game this season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Kansas’s TEs has 8 receptions in 4 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among Big 12 TEs. TCU’s defense has allowed just 13.5 receptions per game this season — T-3rd-best among Big 12 defenses.
TCU Horned Frogs Defensive Stats & Trends
TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 20 of 166 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) this season– 2nd-worst in the Big 12; Average: 16%.
TCU allowed passes of 40+ yards on 1 of 19 attempts (5%) last week– T-2nd-worst in the Big 12; Average: 2%
TCU has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 19 rushing attempts in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
TCU has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 19 rushing attempts in the Red Zone this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 18%.
TCU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (3 completions/9 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: 61%
Kansas Jayhawks Defensive Stats & Trends
Kansas’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 24% of PATs since the 2023 season– highest in FBS; Average: 7%
Kansas’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 24% of PATs since the 2023 season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%
Kansas allowed 19.7 yards per completion (295 yards/15 completions) last week– worst in the Big 12; Average: 11.9
Kansas’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 26% of PATs in the 2023 season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%
Kansas allowed 8 first down receptions on 1st down last week– T-most among Power Conference Teams
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