Michigan vs TCU Prediction, Odds, Prop Bets: Fiesta Bowl

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 06, 2023, 3:27 PM
  • (3-9) are point favorites vs (3-9)
  • Total (Over/Under): Total points
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The TCU Horned Frogs (13-1) visit State Farm Stadium to take on the Michigan Wolverines (13-1) on Dec. 31. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EST in Glendale.

are betting favorites in Week 18, with the spread sitting at ().

The TCU vs. Michigan Over/Under is total points.

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TCU vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 18

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
TCU
Michigan

TCU vs Michigan Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Michigan will win this game with 70.3% confidence.

TCU vs Michigan Spread Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both TCU and Michigan, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best TCU Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for TCU players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Max Duggan has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 7 away games (+3.65 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Taye Barber has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Kendre Miller has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Derius Davis has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Max Duggan has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Quentin Johnston has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Taye Barber has hit the Receptions Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.95 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Max Duggan has hit the Passing Yards Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+1.80 Units / 10% ROI)

Best Michigan Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Michigan players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Cornelius Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Cornelius Johnson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Blake Corum has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • J.J. McCarthy has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+3.45 Units / 33% ROI)
  • J.J. McCarthy has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 103% ROI)
  • Roman Wilson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Luke Schoonmaker has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Blake Corum has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • team high – away
  • team high – home

TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

TCU has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • TCU is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • TCU is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • TCU is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Michigan is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Michigan is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Michigan is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

TCU: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan

#3 TCU is 9-1 (.818) when making 7 or more explosive plays — 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .451

#3 TCU is 10-1 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .441

#3 TCU is 7-1 (.778) when passing for more than 200 yards — 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .399

#3 TCU is 10-2 (.769) when not losing a fumble since the 2021 season– 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .452

Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. TCU

#2 Michigan is 15-2 (.882) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2021 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .384

#2 Michigan is undefeated (23-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season– tied for best in FBS; Average: .590

#2 Michigan is 16-3 (.842) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season– tied for 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .421

#2 Michigan is 11-2 (.846) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2021 season– 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .378

Matchup Notes for TCU vs. Michigan

There are no matchup notes available for this game

TCU has gained 6,036 yards on 434 receptions (13.9 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-best among Power 5 skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among Big Ten defenses.

TCU’s WRs has gained 4,995 yards on 323 receptions (15.5 YPR) since the 2021 season — second-best among Power 5 WRs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among Big Ten defenses.

TCU Offensive Stats & Trends

TCU has gained 6,036 yards on 434 receptions (13.9 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-best among Power 5 skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among Big Ten defenses.

TCU’s WRs has gained 4,995 yards on 323 receptions (15.5 YPR) since the 2021 season — second-best among Power 5 WRs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among Big Ten defenses.

#3 TCU WRs have 17 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since last season– tied for most among Power 5 Teams

#3 TCU Skill Players have averaged 14.2 yards per reception (1,133 yards/80 catches) in the 4th quarter since last season– 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.9

#3 TCU WRs have averaged 15.3 yards per reception (4,799 yards/313 catches) since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.3

Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends

#2 Michigan RBs have averaged 13.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (421 yards / 31 touches) on 3rd and long since last season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.3

#2 Michigan RBs have rushed for 18 TDs in the 4th quarter since last season– most among FBS Teams

#2 Michigan RBs have averaged 216.1 rushing yards per game (2,377/11) this season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 131.8

#2 Michigan RBs have rushed for 59 TDs since last season– most among FBS Teams

#2 Michigan RBs have rushed for 9 TDs in the 4th quarter this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

TCU Horned Frogs Defensive Stats & Trends

#3 TCU has forced 9 fumbles on 852 carries (94.7 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 41.5

#3 TCU has forced 9 fumbles on 852 carries (94.7 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 42.0

#3 TCU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (27 completions/63 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 58%

#3 TCU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (43 completions/100 attempts) on 3rd and long since last season– 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%

#3 TCU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 47% (41 completions/88 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 59%

Michigan Wolverines Defensive Stats & Trends

#2 Michigan has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 30 carries (10 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 4.8

#2 Michigan has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 30 carries (10 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.7

#2 Michigan opponents has averaged 48.9 Passing Attempts per TD (342 Pass Attempts/7 Passing TDs) this season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 20.7

#2 Michigan has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 309 carries (61.8 Carries Per TD) this season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 23.8

#2 Michigan has allowed 16 rushing TDs on 793 carries (49.6 Carries Per TD) since last season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 23.9


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.