Michigan vs TCU Prediction, Odds, Prop Bets: Fiesta Bowl

min read
AP Photos
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 31, 2022, 10:20 AM
  • (3-9) are point favorites vs (3-9)
  • Total (Over/Under): Total points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The TCU Horned Frogs (13-1) visit State Farm Stadium to take on the Michigan Wolverines (13-1) on Dec. 31. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EST in Glendale.

are betting favorites in Week 18, with the spread sitting at ().

The TCU vs. Michigan Over/Under is total points.

Bet now on Michigan vs TCU & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

TCU vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 18

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
TCU
Michigan

TCU vs Michigan Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Michigan will win this game with 70.3% confidence.

TCU vs Michigan Spread Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both TCU and Michigan, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Bet now on Michigan vs TCU and all games with BetMGM


Best TCU Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for TCU players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Max Duggan has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 7 away games (+3.65 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Taye Barber has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Kendre Miller has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Derius Davis has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Max Duggan has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Quentin Johnston has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Taye Barber has hit the Receptions Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.95 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Max Duggan has hit the Passing Yards Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+1.80 Units / 10% ROI)

Best Michigan Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Michigan players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Cornelius Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Cornelius Johnson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Blake Corum has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • J.J. McCarthy has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+3.45 Units / 33% ROI)
  • J.J. McCarthy has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 103% ROI)
  • Roman Wilson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Luke Schoonmaker has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Blake Corum has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • team high – away
  • team high – home

TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

TCU has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • TCU is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • TCU is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • TCU is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Michigan is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Michigan is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Michigan is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

TCU: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan

#3 TCU is 9-1 (.818) when making 7 or more explosive plays — 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .451

#3 TCU is 10-1 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .441

#3 TCU is 7-1 (.778) when passing for more than 200 yards — 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .399

#3 TCU is 10-2 (.769) when not losing a fumble since the 2021 season– 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .452

Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. TCU

#2 Michigan is 15-2 (.882) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2021 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .384

#2 Michigan is undefeated (23-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season– tied for best in FBS; Average: .590

#2 Michigan is 16-3 (.842) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season– tied for 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .421

#2 Michigan is 11-2 (.846) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2021 season– 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .378

Matchup Notes for TCU vs. Michigan

There are no matchup notes available for this game

TCU has gained 6,036 yards on 434 receptions (13.9 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-best among Power 5 skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among Big Ten defenses.

TCU’s WRs has gained 4,995 yards on 323 receptions (15.5 YPR) since the 2021 season — second-best among Power 5 WRs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among Big Ten defenses.

TCU Offensive Stats & Trends

TCU has gained 6,036 yards on 434 receptions (13.9 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-best among Power 5 skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among Big Ten defenses.

TCU’s WRs has gained 4,995 yards on 323 receptions (15.5 YPR) since the 2021 season — second-best among Power 5 WRs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among Big Ten defenses.

#3 TCU WRs have 17 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since last season– tied for most among Power 5 Teams

#3 TCU Skill Players have averaged 14.2 yards per reception (1,133 yards/80 catches) in the 4th quarter since last season– 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.9

#3 TCU WRs have averaged 15.3 yards per reception (4,799 yards/313 catches) since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.3

Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends

#2 Michigan RBs have averaged 13.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (421 yards / 31 touches) on 3rd and long since last season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.3

#2 Michigan RBs have rushed for 18 TDs in the 4th quarter since last season– most among FBS Teams

#2 Michigan RBs have averaged 216.1 rushing yards per game (2,377/11) this season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 131.8

#2 Michigan RBs have rushed for 59 TDs since last season– most among FBS Teams

#2 Michigan RBs have rushed for 9 TDs in the 4th quarter this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

TCU Horned Frogs Defensive Stats & Trends

#3 TCU has forced 9 fumbles on 852 carries (94.7 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 41.5

#3 TCU has forced 9 fumbles on 852 carries (94.7 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 42.0

#3 TCU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (27 completions/63 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 58%

#3 TCU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (43 completions/100 attempts) on 3rd and long since last season– 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%

#3 TCU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 47% (41 completions/88 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 59%

Michigan Wolverines Defensive Stats & Trends

#2 Michigan has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 30 carries (10 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 4.8

#2 Michigan has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 30 carries (10 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.7

#2 Michigan opponents has averaged 48.9 Passing Attempts per TD (342 Pass Attempts/7 Passing TDs) this season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 20.7

#2 Michigan has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 309 carries (61.8 Carries Per TD) this season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 23.8

#2 Michigan has allowed 16 rushing TDs on 793 carries (49.6 Carries Per TD) since last season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 23.9


Bet now on Michigan vs TCU and all games with BetMGM


College Football Betting at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated NFL betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.