- Tennessee is a -6.5 point favorite vs. Florida
- Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
- Watch the game on ESPN
The Tennessee Volunteers visit Ben Hill Griffin Stadium to take on the Florida Gators on Sep. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Gainesville.
Tennessee is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).
The Tennessee vs. Florida Over/Under is 56.5 total points.
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Tennessee vs. Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 3
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Tennessee | -5.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -225 |
| Florida | +5.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +185 |
Tennessee vs Florida Prediction for Week 3
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Tennessee will win this game with 69.4% confidence.
Tennessee vs Florida Spread Prediction for Week 3
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Tennessee will cover the spread with 68.5% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Tennessee and Florida, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Tennessee Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Tennessee has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- Tennessee have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Tennessee has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Tennessee has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- Tennessee have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 31% ROI)
Florida Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Florida has hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Florida has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- Florida has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Florida have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.35 Units / 21% ROI)
Best Tennessee Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Tennessee players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jabari Small has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bru McCoy has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+0.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Best Florida Player Prop Best Bets Today
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Florida players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Montrell Johnson Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- Ricky Pearsall has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.65 Units / 24% ROI)
Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Tennessee is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Tennessee is 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.6 Units / -18.55% ROI
- Tennessee is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Tennessee is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Florida is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).
- Florida is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Florida is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Florida is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Tennessee: Keys to the Game vs. Florida
#12 Tennessee is undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2022 season– tied for best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .554
#12 Tennessee is 11-2 (.846) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2022 season– tied for 12th-best in FBS; Average: .584
#12 Tennessee was undefeated (5-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass in the 2022 season– tied for best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .631
#12 Tennessee was 6-1 (.857) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2022 season– tied for 4th-best in FBS; Average: .448
Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Tennessee
Florida is 1-11 (.083) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: .381
Florida is 3-11 (.214) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– 6th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .494
Florida was 2-6 (.250) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team in the 2022 season– tied for 13th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .495
Florida is 4-14 (.222) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season– tied for 8th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .513
Matchup Notes for Tennessee vs. Florida
Florida has gained 3,476 yards on 248 receptions (14.0 YPR) since the 2022 season — tied for third-best among Power 5 skill players. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception since the 2022 season — tied for 33rd-best among FBS defenses.
Florida’s WRs has gained 418 yards on 30 receptions (just 13.9 YPR) this season — fifth-worst among SEC WRs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 9.2 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for 17th-best among FBS defenses.
Florida has gained 566 yards on 49 receptions (just 11.6 YPR) this season — third-worst among SEC skill players. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 9.2 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for second-best among SEC defenses.
Tennessee’s offense has thrown for 4,679 passing yards in 15 games (311.9 YPG) since the 2022 season — sixth-best among FBS offenses. Florida’s defense has allowed just 231.1 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — fifth-worst among SEC defenses.
Tennessee’s TEs has 4 receptions in 2 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — tied for fifth-worst among SEC TEs. Florida’s defense has allowed just 11.0 receptions per game this season — best among SEC defenses.
Tennessee’s WRs has gained 3,972 yards on 266 receptions (14.9 YPR) since the 2022 season — tied for 20th-best among FBS WRs. Florida’s defense has allowed 12.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2022 season — third-worst among SEC defenses.
Tennessee Offensive Stats & Trends
Tennessee’s offense has thrown for 4,679 passing yards in 15 games (311.9 YPG) since the 2022 season — sixth-best among FBS offenses. Florida’s defense has allowed just 231.1 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — fifth-worst among SEC defenses.
Tennessee’s TEs has 4 receptions in 2 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — tied for fifth-worst among SEC TEs. Florida’s defense has allowed just 11.0 receptions per game this season — best among SEC defenses.
#12 Tennessee Skill Players averaged 17.7 yards per reception (816 yards/46 catches) in the 4th quarter in the 2022 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.6
Tennessee’s WRs has gained 3,972 yards on 266 receptions (14.9 YPR) since the 2022 season — tied for 20th-best among FBS WRs. Florida’s defense has allowed 12.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2022 season — third-worst among SEC defenses.
Tennessee has gained 4,679 yards on 334 receptions (14.0 YPR) since the 2022 season — tied for third-best among Power 5 skill players. Florida’s defense has allowed 12.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2022 season — third-worst among SEC defenses.
Florida Offensive Stats & Trends
Florida Skill Players have been targeted 18 times in close and late situations this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
Florida Skill Players have averaged 23.0 receptions per game (23/1) in the 2nd half this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 9.3
Florida WRs have picked up first downs on 7 receptions in close and late situations this season– most among FBS Teams
Florida Skill Players have averaged 19.2 yards per reception (594 yards/31 catches) on 1st down since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.6
Florida Skill Players averaged 19.4 yards per reception (271 yards/14 catches) with 4-6 yards to go in the 2022 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.3
Tennessee Volunteers Defensive Stats & Trends
#11 Tennessee opponents has averaged 54.3 Passing Attempts per TD (163 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) since the 2021 season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 21.9
#11 Tennessee opponents has averaged 54.3 Passing Attempts per TD (163 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 21.9
#11 Tennessee has allowed a passer rating of just 67.3 in the Red Zone (10.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 162.9
#11 Tennessee has averaged 4.0 sacks per game since the 2021 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2.1
#11 Tennessee has allowed 3 touchdowns on 94 completions (31.3 Completions Per TD) since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.2
Florida Gators Defensive Stats & Trends
Florida has no interceptions (91 pass attempts) since last season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 36.2
Florida has no interceptions and 4 TD passes allowed since last season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 1.7
Florida has no interceptions (91 pass attempts) since the 2021 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 36.4
Florida has no interceptions and 4 TD passes allowed since the 2021 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 1.7
Florida has allowed 12.1 Yards per Attempt (519 yards/43 attempts) on 1st down since the 2021 season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 7.9
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