Texas vs Alabama Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 2

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Alabama defensive lineman Jaheim Oatis (91) runs a play against Arkansas during an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022, in Fayetteville, Ark. (AP Photo/Michael Woods)

(AP Photo/Michael Woods)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 08, 2023, 3:08 PM

Alabama is a -7 point favorite vs. Texas
Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
Watch the game on ESPN

The Texas Longhorns visit Bryant-Denny Stadium to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide on Sep. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Tuscaloosa.

Alabama is a betting favorite in Week 2, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).

The Texas vs. Alabama Over/Under is 54.5 total points.

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Texas vs. Alabama Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 2

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Texas	+7 -110	54.5 -115	+220
Alabama	-7 -110	54.5 -105	-275

Texas vs Alabama Prediction for Week 2

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Alabama will win this game with 73.9% confidence.

Texas vs Alabama Spread Prediction for Week 2

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Alabama will cover the spread with 67.3% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas and Alabama, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.

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Texas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Texas have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.05 Units / 59% ROI)

Texas have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 60% ROI)

Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.70 Units / 39% ROI)

Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.65 Units / 31% ROI)

Texas has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 49% ROI)

Alabama Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Alabama has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 4 games at home (+3.00 Units / 5% ROI)

Alabama have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)

Alabama have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.85 Units / 42% ROI)

Alabama has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)

Alabama has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.85 Units / 15% ROI)

Best Texas Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Texas players for Week 2, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Quinn Ewers has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 4 games (+4.10 Units / 67% ROI)

Quinn Ewers has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.45 Units / 29% ROI)

Jordan Whittington has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.90 Units / 40% ROI)

Ja’Tavion Sanders has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.60 Units / 22% ROI)

Xavier Worthy has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 4 of his last 6 away games (+1.60 Units / 22% ROI)

Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.75 Units / 22% ROI)

Best Alabama Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Alabama players for Week 2, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Jermaine Burton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Ja’Corey Brooks has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.60 Units / 23% ROI)

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas is 0-1 against the spread this college football season (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

Texas is 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -13.4% ROI
Texas is 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Texas is 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI

Alabama Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Alabama is 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).

Alabama is 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -1.5% ROI
Alabama is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
Alabama is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Alabama

#11 Texas was 5-3 (.500) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game in the 2022 season– tied for 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .359

#11 Texas was 6-3 (.500) when making 7 or more explosive plays in the 2022 season– tied for 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .385

#11 Texas was 6-3 (.545) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2022 season– tied for 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .388

#11 Texas was 5-3 (.625) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2022 season– 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .409

Alabama: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

#4 Alabama is 11-1 (.846) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: .444

#4 Alabama is 17-1 (.895) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: .550

#4 Alabama is 20-3 (.769) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2021 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: .493

#4 Alabama is 20-3 (.833) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season– 10th-best in FBS; Average: .592

Matchup Notes for Texas vs. Alabama

Alabama’s WRs gained 2,526 yards on 176 receptions (14.4 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for 31st-best among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — second-best among P5 defenses.

Alabama gained 3,660 yards on 280 receptions (13.1 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for 31st-best among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — tied for third-best among FBS defenses.

Alabama has gained 8,929 yards on 677 receptions (13.2 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for 23rd-best among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among FBS defenses.

Texas’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 12.6% of 404 attempts in the 2022 season — tied for 28th-best among FBS offenses. Alabama’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.7% of attempts in the 2022 season — second-worst among NonP5 defenses.

Texas gained 3,138 yards on 248 receptions (12.7 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for fourth-best among Big 12 skill players. Alabama’s defense allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — fourth-best among NonP5 defenses.

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas’s RBs averaged 12.7 yards after the catch in the 2022 season — third-best among FBS RBs. Alabama’s defense allowed just 6.5 RAC to RBs in the 2022 season — tied for 27th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas’s RBs has averaged 5.3 targets per game since the 2021 season — tied for 22nd-highest among FBS RBs. Alabama’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to RBs since the 2021 season — tied for 15th-worst among FBS defenses.

Alabama Offensive Stats & Trends

#4 Alabama QBs have 38 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down since the 2021 season– most among FBS Teams

#4 Alabama QBs have 22 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go since the 2021 season– most among FBS Teams

#4 Alabama WRs had no touchdowns on 25 receptions in close and late situations in the 2022 season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.7

Texas Longhorns Defensive Stats & Trends

#11 Texas allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (14 completions/39 attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 53%

#11 Texas allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (14 completions/39 attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 53%

#11 Texas has allowed just 11.1 yards per completion (5,546 yards/500 completions) since the 2021 season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.4

#11 Texas allowed opponents to catch just 14 of 39 passes (36% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 53%

#11 Texas has allowed a Completion Pct of 63% (74 completions/118 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2021 season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%

Alabama Crimson Tide Defensive Stats & Trends

#4 Alabama has tackled opponents for a loss on 14 of 59 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2021 season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 11%.

#4 Alabama has tackled opponents for a loss on 14 of 59 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2021 season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%.

#4 Alabama has averaged 3.4 sacks per game since the 2021 season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 2.2

#4 Alabama has sacked opponents 88 times since the 2021 season– 2nd most in FBS

#4 Alabama has sacked opponents 88 times since the 2021 season– 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

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