- Texas is a -7 point favorite vs. Mississippi St
- Texas vs. Mississippi State Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
- TV Channel: SECN
Texas (5-2) visit Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field to take on Mississippi State (4-3) on Oct. 25 in Starkville, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15pm EDT.
Texas is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -7 (-105).
The Texas vs. Mississippi State Over/Under is 44.5 total points.
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Texas vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Texas | -7 -105 | 44.5 -105 | -275 |
| Mississippi State | +7 -115 | 44.5 -115 | 210 |
Texas vs Mississippi State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 68.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas and Mississippi St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Texas vs Mississippi State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Mississippi State will cover the spread with 50.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Texas Best Bets Today
- Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 6% ROI)
- Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+5.65 Units / 1% ROI)
- Texas has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 59% ROI)
- Texas has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Texas has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+3.45 Units / 5% ROI)
Mississippi State Best Bets Today
- Mississippi State have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 54% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.70 Units / 34% ROI)
Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas is 2-5 against the spread this college football season (-3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI).
- Texas is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.05 Units / -11.6% ROI
- Texas is 2-5 when betting the Over for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI
- Texas is 5-2 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi St iss 6-1 against the spread this college football season (+4.9 Units / 63.64% ROI).
- Mississippi State is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 2.27% ROI
- Mississippi State is 2-5 when betting the Over for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI
- Mississippi State is 5-2 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State
Mississippi State is winless (0-10) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .501
Mississippi State was winless (0-5) when in a one score game last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Mississippi State was winless (0-9) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462
Mississippi State was 2-8 (.200) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578
Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Texas
Mississippi State have completed passes for 40+ yards on 14 of their 193 total passing attempts (7%) this season– T-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2%
Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 5.5 receptions (11 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 2.0
Mississippi State has averaged 13.1 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-15th-best among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC since the 2024 season — T-2nd-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State’s WRs has averaged 14.6 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 5th-best among SEC WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC since the 2024 season — best among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State has averaged 13.1 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-15th-best among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC since the 2024 season — best among SEC defenses.
Matchup Notes for Texas vs. Mississippi State
Mississippi State have completed passes for 40+ yards on 14 of their 193 total passing attempts (7%) this season– T-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2%
Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 5.5 receptions (11 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 2.0
Mississippi State has averaged 13.1 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-15th-best among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC since the 2024 season — T-2nd-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State’s WRs has averaged 14.6 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 5th-best among SEC WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC since the 2024 season — best among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State has averaged 13.1 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-15th-best among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC since the 2024 season — best among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State is winless (0-10) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .501
Mississippi State was winless (0-5) when in a one score game last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Mississippi State was winless (0-9) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462
Mississippi State was 2-8 (.200) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578
Texas Offensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State is winless (0-10) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .501
Mississippi State was winless (0-5) when in a one score game last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Mississippi State was winless (0-9) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462
Mississippi State was 2-8 (.200) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578
Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State have completed passes for 40+ yards on 14 of their 193 total passing attempts (7%) this season– T-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2%
Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 5.5 receptions (11 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 2.0
Mississippi State has averaged 13.1 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-15th-best among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC since the 2024 season — T-2nd-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State’s WRs has averaged 14.6 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 5th-best among SEC WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC since the 2024 season — best among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State has averaged 13.1 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-15th-best among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC since the 2024 season — best among SEC defenses.
Texas Defensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State is winless (0-10) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .501
Mississippi State was winless (0-5) when in a one score game last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Mississippi State was winless (0-9) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462
Mississippi State was 2-8 (.200) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578
Mississippi State Defensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State have completed passes for 40+ yards on 14 of their 193 total passing attempts (7%) this season– T-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2%
Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 5.5 receptions (11 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 2.0
Mississippi State has averaged 13.1 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-15th-best among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC since the 2024 season — T-2nd-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State’s WRs has averaged 14.6 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 5th-best among SEC WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC since the 2024 season — best among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State has averaged 13.1 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-15th-best among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC since the 2024 season — best among SEC defenses.
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