- Arizona St is a -15.5 point favorite vs. Texas St
- Texas State vs. Arizona State Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
- TV Channel: TNT | tru | HBOM
Texas State (2-0) visit Mountain America Stadium to take on Arizona State (1-1) on Sep. 13 in Tempe, AZ. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EDT.
Arizona St is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -15.5 (-115).
The Texas State vs. Arizona State Over/Under is 59.5 total points.
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Texas State vs. Arizona State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Texas State | +15.5 -105 | 59.5 -110 | 500 |
| Arizona State | -15.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | -700 |
Texas State vs Arizona State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Arizona State will win this game with 79.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas St and Arizona St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Texas State vs Arizona State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas State will cover the spread with 62.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Texas State Best Bets Today
- Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- Texas State have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Texas State have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.60 Units / 23% ROI)
Arizona State Best Bets Today
- Arizona State has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Arizona State have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Arizona State has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Arizona State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+3.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- Arizona State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.35 Units / 36% ROI)
Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas St is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Texas State is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.65 Units / 42.74% ROI
- Texas State is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Texas State is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
Arizona State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arizona St iss 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).
- Arizona State is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Arizona State is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Arizona State is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Texas State: Keys to the Game vs. Arizona State
Texas State was 5-2 (.714) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-16th-best in FBS; Average: .632
Texas State is 10-3 (.769) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season– 13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .582
Texas State is 7-2 (.778) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: .528
Arizona State: Keys to the Game vs. Texas State
Arizona State was 7-1 (.875) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season– T-6th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .631
Arizona State is 8-1 (.889) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game since the 2024 season– T-6th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .661
Arizona State was 8-2 (.800) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .468
Arizona State was 10-4 (.714) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– 36th-best in FBS; Average: .575
Matchup Notes for Texas State vs. Arizona State
Arizona State’s TEs has 2 receptions in 2 games (just 1.0 per game) this season — T-2nd-worst among P5 TEs. Texas State’s defense has allowed 23.0 receptions per game this season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arizona State’s TEs has 2 receptions in 2 games (just 1.0 per game) this season — T-2nd-worst among Big 12 TEs. Texas State’s defense has allowed 23.0 receptions per game this season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arizona State’s WRs has 20 receptions in 2 games (just 10.0 per game) this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 WRs. Texas State’s defense has allowed 23.0 receptions per game this season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State has averaged just 11.2 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS skill players. Arizona State’s defense has allowed just 10.8 RAC since the 2024 season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s WRs has 255 receptions in 15 games (17.0 per game) since the 2024 season — T-11th-best among FBS WRs. Arizona State’s defense has allowed 14.4 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-11th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s WRs has averaged just 11.7 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-16th-worst among FBS WRs. Arizona State’s defense has allowed just 10.8 RAC since the 2024 season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Texas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Texas State RBs have averaged 12.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (383 yards / 30 touches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4
Texas State RBs have averaged 12.3 Yards per Carry (332 yards/27 carries) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Texas State has averaged just 11.2 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS skill players. Arizona State’s defense has allowed just 10.8 RAC since the 2024 season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Texas State WRs have been targeted 9 times in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
Texas State’s WRs has 255 receptions in 15 games (17.0 per game) since the 2024 season — T-11th-best among FBS WRs. Arizona State’s defense has allowed 14.4 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-11th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arizona State Offensive Stats & Trends
Arizona State RBs have averaged 9.3 Yards per Carry (130 yards/14 carries) this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Arizona State’s TEs has 2 receptions in 2 games (just 1.0 per game) this season — T-2nd-worst among P5 TEs. Texas State’s defense has allowed 23.0 receptions per game this season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arizona State RBs had 11 receptions for 20 or more yards last season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
Arizona State’s TEs has 2 receptions in 2 games (just 1.0 per game) this season — T-2nd-worst among Big 12 TEs. Texas State’s defense has allowed 23.0 receptions per game this season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arizona State TEs had no touchdowns on 55 receptions in the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.0
Texas State Defensive Stats & Trends
Texas State tackled opponents for a loss on 3 of 17 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– 11th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.
Texas State sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (36/401) last season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: 7%
Texas State has tackled opponents for a loss on 109 of 545 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) since the 2024 season– T-16th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
Texas State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 42% (8 completions/19 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 64%
Texas State averaged a sack every 10.0 pass attempts (40 Pass Attempts/4 Sacks) in the Red Zone last season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: 15.0
Arizona State Defensive Stats & Trends
Arizona State allowed 5.6 touchdowns per interception (28 TDs allowed, and 5 INT) in the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8
Arizona State intercepted 5 of 419 attempts (83.8 pass attempts per int.) in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 38.0
Arizona State intercepted 5 of 419 attempts (83.8 pass attempts per int.) in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 36.7
Arizona State allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 7 of 21 carries (33%) on 3rd and long last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 19%
Arizona State tackled opponents for a loss on just 6 of 61 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– T-24th-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
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