- Baylor is a -27.5 point favorite vs Texas State
- Total (Over/Under): 61.5 points
- Watch the game on ESPN+
The Texas State Bobcats visit McLane Stadium to take on the Baylor Bears on Sep. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Waco.
Baylor is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -27.5 (-110).
The Texas State vs. Baylor Over/Under is 61.5 total points.
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Texas State vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Texas State | +27.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +1400 |
| Baylor | -27.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -5000 |
Texas State vs Baylor Prediction for Week 1
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Baylor will win this game with 95.0% confidence.
Texas State vs Baylor Spread Prediction for Week 1
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Baylor will cover the spread with 79.7% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas State and Baylor, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Texas State Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Texas State players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- no trends found
Best Baylor Player Prop Best Bets Today
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Baylor players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Hal Presley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Blake Shapen has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.30 Units / 68% ROI)
- Blake Shapen has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Monaray Baldwin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Richard Reese has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas State went 5-7 against the spread last college football season (-2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI).
- Texas State went 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 11.04% ROI
- Texas State went 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Texas State went 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Baylor went 6-6 against the spread last college football season (-0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Baylor went 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.35 Units / -27.36% ROI
- Baylor went 8-4 when betting the Over for +3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Baylor went 4-8 when betting the Under for -4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI
Texas State: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor
Texas State is 3-14 (.167) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season– tied for 12th-worst in FBS; Average: .422
Texas State is 3-14 (.167) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2021 season– tied for 13th-worst in FBS; Average: .397
Texas State was 1-7 (.125) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards in the 2022 season– 13th-worst in FBS; Average: .446
Texas State was winless (0-7) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2022 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .415
Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Texas State
Baylor is 9-4 (.562) when passing for more than 200 yards since the 2021 season– tied for 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .410
Baylor is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2021 season– tied for 8th-best in FBS; Average: .556
Baylor is 8-6 (.571) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season– tied for 15th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .420
Baylor is 8-6 (.571) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2021 season– tied for 11th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .373
Matchup Notes for Texas State vs. Baylor
Baylor’s TEs had 57 receptions in 13 games (4.4 per game) in the 2022 season — second-best among Big 12 TEs. Texas State’s defense allowed 22.7 receptions per game in the 2022 season — 13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Baylor’s TEs had 57 receptions in 13 games (4.4 per game) in the 2022 season — second-best among Big 12 TEs. Texas State’s defense allowed 22.7 receptions per game in the 2022 season — fifth-worst among NonP5 defenses.
Baylor’s WRs gained 2,134 yards on 136 receptions (15.7 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for 11th-best among FBS WRs. Texas State’s defense allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — tied for 16th-best among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s offense has thrown for 4,994 passing yards in 24 games (just 208.1 YPG) since the 2021 season — 29th-worst among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 242.8 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big 12 defenses.
Texas State’s QBs has thrown for 5,359 passing yards in 24 games (just 223.3 YPG) since the 2021 season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 242.8 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big 12 defenses.
Texas State’s WRs had 1.5 receiving touchdowns per game in the 2022 season — tied for 26th-best among FBS WRs. Baylor’s defense allowed just 1.3 receiving touchdowns per game in the 2022 season — second-best among Big 12 defenses.
Texas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Texas State’s offense has thrown for 4,994 passing yards in 24 games (just 208.1 YPG) since the 2021 season — 29th-worst among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 242.8 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big 12 defenses.
Texas State’s QBs has thrown for 5,359 passing yards in 24 games (just 223.3 YPG) since the 2021 season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 242.8 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big 12 defenses.
Texas State’s WRs had 1.5 receiving touchdowns per game in the 2022 season — tied for 26th-best among FBS WRs. Baylor’s defense allowed just 1.3 receiving touchdowns per game in the 2022 season — second-best among Big 12 defenses.
Texas State Skill Players averaged 22.8 receptions per game (274/12) in the 2022 season– 25th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 19.2
Texas State had 274 receptions in 12 games (22.8 per game) in the 2022 season — 25th-best among FBS skill players. Baylor’s defense allowed just 18.8 receptions per game in the 2022 season — fourth-best among Big 12 defenses.
Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends
Baylor’s TEs had 57 receptions in 13 games (4.4 per game) in the 2022 season — second-best among Big 12 TEs. Texas State’s defense allowed 22.7 receptions per game in the 2022 season — 13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Baylor’s TEs had 57 receptions in 13 games (4.4 per game) in the 2022 season — second-best among Big 12 TEs. Texas State’s defense allowed 22.7 receptions per game in the 2022 season — fifth-worst among NonP5 defenses.
Baylor’s WRs gained 2,134 yards on 136 receptions (15.7 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for 11th-best among FBS WRs. Texas State’s defense allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — tied for 16th-best among FBS defenses.
Baylor WRs averaged 23.2 yards per reception (372 yards/16 catches) with 4-6 yards to go in the 2022 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.2
Baylor’s WRs has gained 4,097 yards on 282 receptions (14.5 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for third-best among Big 12 WRs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 11.2 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — tied for 23rd-best among FBS defenses.
Texas State Bobcats Defensive Stats & Trends
Texas State tackled opponents for a loss on just 5 of 63 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.
Texas State tackled opponents for a loss on just 5 of 63 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– 9th-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
Texas State allowed 49.1 receiving yards per game (589/12) to RBs in the 2022 season– worst in FBS; Average: 25.6
Texas State allowed a Completion Pct of 68% (36 completions/53 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2022 season– tied for 4th-worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 55%
Texas State allowed a Completion Pct of 65% (272 completions/419 attempts) in the 2022 season– tied for 19th-worst in FBS; Average: 60%
Baylor Bears Defensive Stats & Trends
Baylor did not record a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 17.1
Baylor has sacked opposing QBs just once on 88 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.7
Baylor has sacked opposing QBs just once on 88 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 16.3
Baylor has tackled opponents for a loss on just 16 of 165 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– 5th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.
Baylor tackled opponents for a loss on just 7 of 94 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– 8th-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
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