- The Texas State Bobcats are a -3.5 point favorite vs. the San Diego State Aztecs
- Texas State vs. San Diego State Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
- TV Channel: CW
Texas State (2-2) visit Snapdragon Stadium to take on San Diego State (1-3) on Oct. 3 in San Diego, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 pm.
The Texas State Bobcats are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-125).
The Texas State vs. San Diego State Over/Under is 59.5 total points.
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Texas State vs. San Diego State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Texas State | -3.5 -125 | 59.5 -112 | -190 |
| San Diego State | +3.5 -105 | 59.5 -105 | +160 |
Texas State vs San Diego State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Texas State will win this game with 54.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Texas State Bobcats and the San Diego State Aztecs, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Texas State vs San Diego State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas State will cover the spread with 52.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Texas State Best Bets Today
- Texas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 13 games (+2.40 Units / 6% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.25 Units / 13% ROI)
San Diego State Best Bets Today
- San Diego State has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- San Diego State have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- San Diego State have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- San Diego State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- San Diego State has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas State Bobcats is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.18 Units / -4.09% ROI).
- Texas State is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -0.79% ROI
- Texas State is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 42.89% ROI
- Texas State is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.27 Units / -51.95% ROI
San Diego State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
San Diego State Aztecs is 0-4 against the spread this college football season (-4.4 Units / -100% ROI).
- San Diego State is 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -100% ROI
- San Diego State is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- San Diego State is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Texas State: Keys to the Game vs. San Diego State
Texas State was 5-2 (.714) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .668
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-16th-best in FBS; Average: .632
Texas State was 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season– T-15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .583
San Diego State: Keys to the Game vs. Texas State
San Diego State was winless (0-6) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .536
San Diego State was 1-7 (.125) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-10th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .400
San Diego State was 3-9 (.250) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-19th-worst in FBS; Average: .479
San Diego State was 1-4 (.200) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-11th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .462
Matchup Notes for Texas State vs. San Diego State
San Diego State averaged 12.3 yards after the catch last season — 3rd-best among Pac-12 skill players. Texas State’s defense allowed just 9.8 RAC last season — T-9th-best among FBS defenses.
San Diego State’s WRs averaged 12.9 yards after the catch last season — 4th-best among Pac-12 WRs. Texas State’s defense allowed just 11.1 RAC to WRs last season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.
San Diego State averaged 12.3 yards after the catch last season — 3rd-best among Pac-12 skill players. Texas State’s defense allowed just 9.8 RAC last season — 3rd-best among Pac-12 defenses.
Texas State’s WRs averaged 13.8 yards after the catch last season — 3rd-best among Pac-12 WRs. San Diego State’s defense allowed just 9.6 RAC last season — T-6th-best among FBS defenses.
Texas State had 253 receptions in 13 games (19.5 per game) last season — T-4th-worst among Pac-12 skill players. San Diego State’s defense allowed just 17.2 receptions per game last season — T-3rd-worst among Pac-12 defenses.
Texas State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 13.1% of 358 attempts last season — T-15th-best among FBS offenses. San Diego State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 5.3% of attempts last season — 2nd-best among NonP5 defenses.
Texas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Texas State threw for 6 TDs last week– T-2nd-most among FBS Offenses
Texas State caught 6 touchdown passes last week– T-2nd-most among FBS Offenses
Texas State have been sacked on 30% of pass attempts (3/10) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Offenses; Average: 8%
Texas State threw 8 TDs and no interceptions in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 1.6
Texas State completed passes for 40+ yards on 3 of their 23 total passing attempts (13%) last week– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2%
San Diego State Offensive Stats & Trends
San Diego State averaged 12.3 yards after the catch last season — 3rd-best among Pac-12 skill players. Texas State’s defense allowed just 9.8 RAC last season — T-9th-best among FBS defenses.
San Diego State’s WRs averaged 12.9 yards after the catch last season — 4th-best among Pac-12 WRs. Texas State’s defense allowed just 11.1 RAC to WRs last season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.
San Diego State averaged just 6.7 yards per completion (268 yards/40 completions) on 3rd down last season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8
San Diego State have averaged just 8.4 yards per completion (430 yards/51 completions) on 3rd down since the 2024 season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.9
San Diego State threw 0 TDs on 55 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter last season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.9
Texas State Defensive Stats & Trends
Texas State has allowed 70 first down receptions this season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Texas State has allowed 7 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-3rd-most in FBS
Texas State has allowed 70 first down receptions this season– most in FBS
Texas State has allowed 23 TD passes in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-2nd-most in FBS
Texas State has allowed 348.2 Passing Yards per game (1,393/4) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 207.4
San Diego State Defensive Stats & Trends
San Diego State forced 4 fumbles on 509 carries (127.2 Carries Per Fumble) last season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 43.4
San Diego State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 42% (34 completions/80 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: 55%
San Diego State allowed 9 rushing TDs on 458 carries (50.9 Carries Per TD) last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 22.1
San Diego State allowed opponents to catch 21 of 28 passes (75% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone last season– worst in FBS; Average: 54%
San Diego State allowed a Completion Pct of 75% (21 completions/28 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%
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