- South Alabama (7-2) are -16.5 point favorites vs Texas State (3-6)
- Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
- Watch the game on ESPN+
The Texas State Bobcats (4-7) visit Hancock Whitney Stadium to take on the South Alabama Jaguars (9-2) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:00pm EST in Mobile.
– are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().
The Over/Under for Texas State vs. South Alabama is total points.
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Texas State vs. South Alabama Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Texas State | |||
| South Alabama |
Texas State vs South Alabama Prediction for Week 11
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts South Alabama will win this game with 73.8% confidence.
Texas State vs South Alabama Spread Prediction for Week 11
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas State will cover the spread with 58.6% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas State and South Alabama, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
Texas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Texas State have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.45 Units / 27% ROI)
South Alabama Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- South Alabama has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- South Alabama has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+5.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- South Alabama has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- South Alabama have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- South Alabama has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.25 Units / 15% ROI)
Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).
- Texas State is 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 23.81% ROI
- Texas State is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
- Texas State is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
South Alabama Against the Spread (ATS) Record
South Alabama has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).
- South Alabama is 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.3 Units / 18.12% ROI
- South Alabama is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
- South Alabama is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
Texas State: Keys to the Game vs. South Alabama
Texas State is 2-12 (.125) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush — tied for 9th-worst in FBS; Average: .379
Texas State is 1-9 (.100) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs — tied for 9th-worst in FBS; Average: .387
Matchup Notes for Texas State vs. South Alabama
Texas State’s offense has 5 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for second-fewest among FBS offenses. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 5 rushing TDs this season — tied for third-fewest among NonP5 defenses.
Texas State’s QBs has rushed for -88 yards on 34 carries (just -2.6 YPC) this season — tied for fourth-worst among FBS teams. South Alabama’s defense have allowed just 3.1 YPC this season — tied for fourth-best among NonP5 defenses.
Texas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Texas State WRs have averaged just 8.2 yards per reception (443 yards/54 catches) on 1st down this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.4
Texas State Skill Players have averaged just 9.5 yards per reception (1,555 yards/163 catches) on 1st down since last season– tied for 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.7
Texas State Skill Players have averaged just 8.2 yards per reception (263 yards/32 catches) with over 10 yards to go this season– 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.5
Texas State TEs have been targeted 0.7 times per game (2/3) in the 2nd half since last season– tied for 5th lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 2.6
Texas State WRs have averaged just 10.6 yards per reception (1,426 yards/134 catches) on 1st down since last season– 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.8
South Alabama Offensive Stats & Trends
South Alabama Skill Players have no touchdowns on 69 receptions in close and late situations since last season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.6
South Alabama RBs have rushed for 5 TDs in close and late situations this season– most among FBS Teams
South Alabama Skill Players have averaged just 8.8 yards per reception (439 yards/50 catches) with over 10 yards to go since last season– 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.4
South Alabama RBs have rushed for 5 TDs on 37 carries (7.4 Carries Per TD) in close and late situations this season– 4th best Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 22.9
South Alabama Skill Players have caught 27 of 34 passes (79% Reception Pct) in close and late situations this season– 4th best among FBS Teams; Average: 61%
Texas State Bobcats Defensive Stats & Trends
Texas State has allowed 55.5 receiving yards per game (444/8) to RBs this season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 26.9
Texas State has allowed a Completion Pct of 72% (23 completions/32 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 4th worst in FBS; Average: 54%
Texas State has allowed just 11.8 yards per completion (5,221 yards/441 completions) since last season– 4th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.1
Texas State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 45 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– tied for 4th worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
Texas State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 45 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.
South Alabama Jaguars Defensive Stats & Trends
South Alabama has allowed a Completion Pct of just 46% (55 completions/119 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since last season– tied for 4th best in FBS; Average: 59%
South Alabama has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 229 carries (45.8 Carries Per TD) this season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 23.4
South Alabama has allowed a Completion Pct of just 46% (55 completions/119 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since last season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 58%
South Alabama’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 15% of PATs this season– 3rd highest among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 5%
South Alabama has allowed 1.1 touchdowns per interception (24 TDs allowed, and 21 INT) since last season– tied for 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 2.1
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