Texas State vs South Alabama Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:30 PM
  • South Alabama (7-2) are -16.5 point favorites vs Texas State (3-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN+

The Texas State Bobcats (4-7) visit Hancock Whitney Stadium to take on the South Alabama Jaguars (9-2) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:00pm EST in Mobile.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Texas State vs. South Alabama is total points.

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Texas State vs. South Alabama Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Texas State
South Alabama

Texas State vs South Alabama Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts South Alabama will win this game with 73.8% confidence.

Texas State vs South Alabama Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas State will cover the spread with 58.6% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas State and South Alabama, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


  • Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.45 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.15 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.50 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Texas State have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.45 Units / 27% ROI)
  • South Alabama has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.05 Units / 52% ROI)
  • South Alabama has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+5.85 Units / 36% ROI)
  • South Alabama has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • South Alabama have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.85 Units / 44% ROI)
  • South Alabama has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.25 Units / 15% ROI)

Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Texas State is 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 23.81% ROI
  • Texas State is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Texas State is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

South Alabama Against the Spread (ATS) Record

South Alabama has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • South Alabama is 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.3 Units / 18.12% ROI
  • South Alabama is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • South Alabama is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Texas State: Keys to the Game vs. South Alabama

Texas State is 2-12 (.125) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush — tied for 9th-worst in FBS; Average: .379

Texas State is 1-9 (.100) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs — tied for 9th-worst in FBS; Average: .387

Matchup Notes for Texas State vs. South Alabama

Texas State’s offense has 5 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for second-fewest among FBS offenses. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 5 rushing TDs this season — tied for third-fewest among NonP5 defenses.

Texas State’s QBs has rushed for -88 yards on 34 carries (just -2.6 YPC) this season — tied for fourth-worst among FBS teams. South Alabama’s defense have allowed just 3.1 YPC this season — tied for fourth-best among NonP5 defenses.

Texas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas State WRs have averaged just 8.2 yards per reception (443 yards/54 catches) on 1st down this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.4

Texas State Skill Players have averaged just 9.5 yards per reception (1,555 yards/163 catches) on 1st down since last season– tied for 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.7

Texas State Skill Players have averaged just 8.2 yards per reception (263 yards/32 catches) with over 10 yards to go this season– 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.5

Texas State TEs have been targeted 0.7 times per game (2/3) in the 2nd half since last season– tied for 5th lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 2.6

Texas State WRs have averaged just 10.6 yards per reception (1,426 yards/134 catches) on 1st down since last season– 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.8

South Alabama Offensive Stats & Trends

South Alabama Skill Players have no touchdowns on 69 receptions in close and late situations since last season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.6

South Alabama RBs have rushed for 5 TDs in close and late situations this season– most among FBS Teams

South Alabama Skill Players have averaged just 8.8 yards per reception (439 yards/50 catches) with over 10 yards to go since last season– 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.4

South Alabama RBs have rushed for 5 TDs on 37 carries (7.4 Carries Per TD) in close and late situations this season– 4th best Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 22.9

South Alabama Skill Players have caught 27 of 34 passes (79% Reception Pct) in close and late situations this season– 4th best among FBS Teams; Average: 61%

Texas State Bobcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas State has allowed 55.5 receiving yards per game (444/8) to RBs this season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 26.9

Texas State has allowed a Completion Pct of 72% (23 completions/32 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 4th worst in FBS; Average: 54%

Texas State has allowed just 11.8 yards per completion (5,221 yards/441 completions) since last season– 4th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.1

Texas State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 45 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– tied for 4th worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

Texas State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 45 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

South Alabama Jaguars Defensive Stats & Trends

South Alabama has allowed a Completion Pct of just 46% (55 completions/119 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since last season– tied for 4th best in FBS; Average: 59%

South Alabama has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 229 carries (45.8 Carries Per TD) this season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 23.4

South Alabama has allowed a Completion Pct of just 46% (55 completions/119 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since last season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 58%

South Alabama’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 15% of PATs this season– 3rd highest among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 5%

South Alabama has allowed 1.1 touchdowns per interception (24 TDs allowed, and 21 INT) since last season– tied for 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 2.1


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.