Texas State vs South Alabama Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 14

South Alabama safety Jaden Voisin (2) takes his stance during an NCAA football game against UCLA on Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022, in Pasadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)
(AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)
  • Texas State is a -1 point favorite vs. South Alabama
  • Texas State vs. South Alabama Total (Over/Under): 60.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN+

The Texas State Bobcats (6-5) visit Hancock Whitney Stadium to take on the South Alabama Jaguars (6-5) on Nov. 29 in Mobile, AL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

Texas State is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -1 (-110).

The Texas State vs. South Alabama Over/Under is 60.5 total points.

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Texas State vs. South Alabama Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Texas State-1 -11060.5 -110-115
South Alabama +1 -11060.5 -110-105

Texas State vs South Alabama Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas State will win this game with 52.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas State and South Alabama, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Texas State vs South Alabama Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts South Alabama will cover the spread with 74.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+7.00 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.25 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Texas State have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.60 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Texas State have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.15 Units / 10% ROI)
  • South Alabama has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • South Alabama has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.90 Units / 38% ROI)
  • South Alabama have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • South Alabama have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.75 Units / 27% ROI)
  • South Alabama has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.65 Units / 24% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Texas State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texas State Player Prop Bets Today

  • Joey Hobert has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Ismail Mahdi has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jordan McCloud has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jordan McCloud has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Ismail Mahdi has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for South Alabama players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best South Alabama Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Gio Lopez has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jamaal Pritchett has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Kentrel Bullock has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas State is 5-6 against the spread this college football season (-1.65 Units / -13.58% ROI).

  • Texas State is 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.15 Units / -26.51% ROI
  • Texas State is 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 13.22% ROI
  • Texas State is 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -21.49% ROI

South Alabama Against the Spread (ATS) Record

South Alabama is 5-6 against the spread this college football season (-1.55 Units / -12.86% ROI).

  • South Alabama is 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.42% ROI
  • South Alabama is 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
  • South Alabama is 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI

Texas State: Keys to the Game vs. South Alabama

Texas State is 8-3 (.727) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .598

Texas State is 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .641

Texas State is 8-5 (.615) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .471

Texas State is 11-5 (.688) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .552

South Alabama: Keys to the Game vs. Texas State

South Alabama is 2-10 (.167) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-5th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .381

South Alabama is 1-4 (.200) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: .415

South Alabama is 2-10 (.167) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-5th-worst in FBS; Average: .418

South Alabama is 1-10 (.091) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: .283

Matchup Notes for Texas State vs. South Alabama

South Alabama’s RBs has averaged 9.5 yards after the catch this season — T-33rd-best among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 10.7 RAC this season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.

South Alabama’s RBs has rushed for 1,682 yards on 272 carries (6.2 YPC) this season — T-9th-best among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense have allowed just 3.8 YPC this season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

South Alabama’s QBs has rushed for 491 yards on 97 carries (5.1 YPC) this season — T-9th-best among FBS teams. Texas State’s defense have allowed just 3.8 YPC this season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas State’s QBs has thrown for 2,933 passing yards in 11 games (266.6 YPG) this season — T-28th-best among FBS teams. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 253.7 passing yards per game this season — 20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas State’s offense has thrown for 2,933 passing yards in 11 games (266.6 YPG) this season — 30th-best among FBS offenses. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 253.7 passing yards per game this season — 20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas State have 266.6 receiving yards per game this season — 29th-best among FBS skill players. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 253.7 receiving yards per game this season — 20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas State’s QBs has thrown for 2,933 passing yards in 11 games (266.6 YPG) this season — T-28th-best among FBS teams. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 253.7 passing yards per game this season — 20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas State WRs were targeted 7 times in the Red Zone last week– T-most among FBS Teams

Texas State’s offense has thrown for 2,933 passing yards in 11 games (266.6 YPG) this season — 30th-best among FBS offenses. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 253.7 passing yards per game this season — 20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas State RBs have fumbled 7 times this season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams

Texas State WRs have 285 receptions in the 1st half since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

South Alabama Offensive Stats & Trends

South Alabama’s RBs has averaged 9.5 yards after the catch this season — T-33rd-best among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 10.7 RAC this season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.

South Alabama WRs averaged 24.1 yards per reception (507 yards/21 catches) in close and late situations in the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.5

South Alabama RBs have averaged 155.2 rushing yards per game (3,724/24) since the 2023 season– 18th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 126.0

South Alabama’s RBs has rushed for 1,682 yards on 272 carries (6.2 YPC) this season — T-9th-best among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense have allowed just 3.8 YPC this season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

South Alabama WRs have averaged 14.8 receptions per game (163/11) this season– T-31st-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.3

Texas State Bobcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas State allowed 8 TDs last week– T-2nd-most in FBS

Texas State has averaged 2.9 sacks per game since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Texas State has tackled opponents for a loss on 184 of 916 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) since the 2023 season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

Texas State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 56% (183 completions/330 attempts) this season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

Texas State allowed 8 receptions for 20+ yards last week– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

South Alabama Jaguars Defensive Stats & Trends

South Alabama has not recorded a sack (41 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.4

South Alabama has not recorded a sack (41 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 14.9

South Alabama opponents has averaged 6.8 Passing Attempts per TD (61 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: 3.9

South Alabama opponents has averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 3.9

South Alabama opponents has averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8


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