Texas State vs Troy Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 6

min read
Troy wide receiver Chris Lewis (6) during an NCAA football game on Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023, in Troy, Ala. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)
(AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2024, 11:50 AM
  • The Texas State is a -13.5 point favorite vs. Troy
  • The Texas State vs. Troy Total(Over/Under): 57 points
  • TV Channel: ESPNU

The Texas State Bobcats (2-2) visit Larry Blakeney Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium to take on the Troy Trojans (1-4) on Oct. 3 in Troy, AL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.

Texas State is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-110).

The Texas State vs. Troy Over/Under is 57 total points.

Bet now on Troy vs Texas State & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Texas State vs. Troy Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Texas State-13.5 -11057 -110-550
Troy +13.5 -11057 -110+380

Texas State vs Troy Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas State will win this game with 85.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas State and Troy, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Texas State vs Troy Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Troy will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


Bet now on Troy vs Texas State and all games with BetMGM


  • Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.85 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.60 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Texas State have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.95 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.65 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Troy has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Troy has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+10.85 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Troy has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Troy have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Troy have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 51% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Troy players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Troy Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Chris Lewis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)

Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas State is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).

  • Texas State is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.55 Units / -60.68% ROI
  • Texas State is 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Texas State is 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.4 Units / -100% ROI

Troy Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Troy is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.25 Units / -4.5% ROI).

  • Troy is 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -16.7% ROI
  • Troy is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -3.64% ROI
  • Troy is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -3.64% ROI

Texas State: Keys to the Game vs. Troy

Texas State is 4-4 (.500) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .386

Texas State is 10-7 (.588) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .400

Texas State is 9-1 (.900) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-15th-best in FBS; Average: .674

Texas State is 10-5 (.667) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-14th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .548

Troy: Keys to the Game vs. Texas State

Troy is 10-3 (.769) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .630

Troy is 7-6 (.538) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-14th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .396

Troy is 9-4 (.692) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .572

Troy is 12-4 (.750) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .650

Matchup Notes for Texas State vs. Troy

Troy’s RBs has 39 receptions in 19 games (just 2.1 per game) since the 2023 season — T-15th-worst among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense has allowed 20.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Troy’s RBs have just 16.1 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — T-25th-worst among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 17.1 receiving yards per game to RBs since the 2023 season — 20th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas State’s offense has thrown for 4,599 passing yards in 17 games (270.5 YPG) since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS offenses. Troy’s defense has allowed just 198.3 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas State’s QBs has thrown for 4,565 passing yards in 17 games (268.5 YPG) since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS teams. Troy’s defense has allowed just 198.3 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas State have 270.4 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS skill players. Troy’s defense has allowed just 198.3 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — 29th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas State’s offense has thrown for 4,599 passing yards in 17 games (270.5 YPG) since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS offenses. Troy’s defense has allowed just 198.3 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas State WRs had 6 receptions in the Red Zone last week– most among FBS Teams

Texas State’s QBs has thrown for 4,565 passing yards in 17 games (268.5 YPG) since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS teams. Troy’s defense has allowed just 198.3 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas State QBs have rushed for 6 TDs in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams

Texas State WRs were targeted 9 times in the Red Zone last week– most among FBS Teams

Troy Offensive Stats & Trends

Troy Skill Players have averaged 22.9 yards per reception (206 yards/9 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.8

Troy Skill Players have caught 11 touchdown passes in close and late situations since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Troy RBs have averaged 8.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (320 yards / 40 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 5th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.6

Troy WRs have averaged 19.9 yards per target (199 yards/10 targets) on 3rd and long this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.9

Troy Skill Players have averaged just 15.4 receptions per game (77/5) this season– T-29th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.9

Texas State Bobcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas State allowed 5 rushing TDs in the Red Zone last week– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Texas State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (8 completions/22 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%

Texas State has averaged 3.1 sacks per game since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Texas State allowed 5 rushing TDs in the Red Zone last week– most in FBS

Texas State allowed 5 TDs in the Red Zone last week– 2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Troy Trojans Defensive Stats & Trends

Troy opponents has averaged 32.9 Passing Attempts per TD (560 Pass Attempts/17 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.1

Troy has allowed 2.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (403 yards / 147 touches) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8

Troy has allowed 17 touchdowns on 361 completions (21.2 Completions Per TD) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.7

Troy allowed 22.5 yards per completion (135 yards/6 completions) last week– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 12.4

Troy has allowed a Completion Pct of 71% (89 completions/125 attempts) this season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 60%


Bet now on Troy vs Texas State and all games with BetMGM


More College Football Betting at BetMGM

BetMGM is the best online sportsbook for college football betting.

Whether youโ€™re a first-time bettor checking out the best sportsbook promos, a casual fan betting on Georgia football national championship odds, Michigan football odds, or Ohio State playoff odds, or a longtime diehard breaking down trends for live sports betting, there are entertainment options for everyone.

Visit the sportsbook today to place a college football bet online!

BetMGM First Bet Offer
About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.