Texas State vs Troy Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 14, 2022, 9:05 AM
  • (2-4) are point favorites vs (2-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): points
  • Watch the game on ESPN3

The Texas State Bobcats (3-4) visit Veterans Memorial Stadium to take on the Troy Trojans (6-2) on Oct. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT in Troy.

are betting favorites in Week 7, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Texas State vs. Troy is total points.

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Texas State vs. Troy Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 7

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Texas State
Troy

Texas State vs Troy Prediction for Week 7

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Troy will win this game with 74.6% confidence.

Texas State vs Troy Spread Prediction for Week 7

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Troy will cover the spread with 63.2% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas State and Troy, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


  • Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+6.85 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+4.80 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Troy have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.85 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Troy has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+4.96 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Troy have covered the Spread in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Troy have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Troy has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games (+3.75 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Texas State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

    • Texas State is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
    • Texas State is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
    • Texas State is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

    Troy Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Troy has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

    • Troy is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
    • Troy is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
    • Troy is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

    Troy: Keys to the Game vs. Texas State

    Troy is 2-14 (.125) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2020 season– tied for 10th-worst in FBS; Average: .367

    Texas State Offensive Stats & Trends

    Texas State TEs have averaged just 0 receptions per game (0/1) in the 2nd half since last season– tied for worst among FBS Teams; Average: 1.7

    Texas State Skill Players have averaged just 8.9 yards per reception (612 yards/69 catches) in the 4th quarter since last season– 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

    Texas State TEs have been targeted 0.0 times per game (0/1) in the 2nd half since last season– tied for lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 2.6

    Texas State RBs have averaged just 2.8 Yards per Carry (142 yards/50 carries) in the 1st half this season– 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 4.9

    Texas State TEs have averaged just 0 receiving yards per game (0/1) in the 2nd half since last season– tied for worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.1

    Troy Offensive Stats & Trends

    Troy RBs have averaged just 3.3 Yards per Carry (337 yards/101 carries) in the 4th quarter since last season– 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

    Troy WRs have averaged 11.2 receptions per game (45/4) in the 2nd half this season– tied for 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.9

    Troy Skill Players have caught 4 touchdown passes in close and late situations this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

    Troy Skill Players have averaged just 8.4 yards per reception (259 yards/31 catches) with over 10 yards to go since last season– 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.4

    Troy WRs have averaged 170.0 receiving yards per game (680/4) in the 2nd half this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 78.0

    Texas State Bobcats Defensive Stats & Trends

    Texas State has allowed one passing TD (129 pass attempts) this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 21.5

    Texas State has no interceptions (61 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 33.2

    Texas State has allowed one passing TD (129 pass attempts) this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 17.8

    Texas State has allowed one touchdown on 83 completions this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.9

    Texas State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 32 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.

    Troy Trojans Defensive Stats & Trends

    Troy has forced 8 fumbles on 633 carries (79.1 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– 3rd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 41.7

    Troy has allowed 56 first down receptions this season– 5th most in FBS

    Troy has intercepted 20 of 472 attempts (23.6 pass attempts per int.) since last season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 38.2

    Troy has sacked opposing QBs on 10% of pass attempts (47/472) since last season– 5th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 7%

    Troy has allowed 103 completions this season– tied for 3rd most among Non-Power 5 Teams


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