Texas State vs UTSA Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 2

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UTSA quarterback Frank Harris warms up before the Cure Bowl NCAA college football game against Troy, Friday, Dec. 16, 2022, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)
(AP Photo/John Raoux)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 08, 2023, 3:09 PM
  • UTSA is a -13 point favorite vs. Texas State
  • Total (Over/Under): 65.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN+

The Texas State Bobcats visit Alamodome to take on the UTSA Roadrunners on Sep. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT in San Antonio.

UTSA is a betting favorite in Week 2, with the spread sitting at -13 (-110).

The Texas State vs. UTSA Over/Under is 65.5 total points.

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Texas State vs. UTSA Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 2

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Texas State+13 -11065.5 -110+340
UTSA -13 -11065.5 -110-450

Texas State vs UTSA Prediction for Week 2

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts UTSA will win this game with 82.8% confidence.

Texas State vs UTSA Spread Prediction for Week 2

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas State will cover the spread with 70.9% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas State and UTSA, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best UTSA Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for UTSA players for Week 2, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Frank Harris has hit the TD Passes Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+1.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Frank Harris has hit the Passing Yards Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.95 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Joshua Cephus has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.80 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Frank Harris has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.75 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 7 games (+3.05 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games (+1.30 Units / 17% ROI)
  • UTSA has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.10 Units / 16% ROI)
  • UTSA has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 49% ROI)
  • UTSA has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • UTSA have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 57% ROI)
  • UTSA has hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.90 Units / 42% ROI)

Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas State is 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Texas State is 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.05 Units / 20.96% ROI
  • Texas State is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Texas State is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

UTSA Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UTSA is 0-1 against the spread this college football season (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

  • UTSA is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -100% ROI
  • UTSA is 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
  • UTSA is 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI

Texas State: Keys to the Game vs. UTSA

Texas State was winless (0-7) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2022 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .414

Texas State was 1-7 (.125) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards in the 2022 season– 15th-worst in FBS; Average: .446

UTSA: Keys to the Game vs. Texas State

UTSA is 12-4 (.750) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2021 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .383

UTSA is 11-1 (.846) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2021 season– tied for 9th-best in FBS; Average: .570

UTSA is 17-3 (.850) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2021 season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: .548

UTSA is 20-6 (.690) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2021 season– 15th-best in FBS; Average: .493

Matchup Notes for Texas State vs. UTSA

UTSA’s WRs has averaged 26.0 targets per game since the 2021 season — 20th-highest among FBS WRs. Texas State’s defense has allowed 14.1 receptions per game to WRs since the 2021 season — tied for 27th-worst among FBS defenses.

UTSA’s offense has thrown for 7,991 passing yards in 29 games (275.6 YPG) since the 2021 season — 21st-best among FBS offenses. Texas State’s defense has allowed 263.6 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

UTSA’s QBs has thrown for 8,202 passing yards in 29 games (282.8 YPG) since the 2021 season — tied for 23rd-best among FBS teams. Texas State’s defense has allowed 263.6 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.9% of 857 attempts since the 2021 season — tied for 13th-worst among FBS offenses. UTSA’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.1% of attempts since the 2021 season — tied for 35th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas State’s offense has thrown for 5,292 passing yards in 25 games (just 211.7 YPG) since the 2021 season — 34th-worst among FBS offenses. UTSA’s defense has allowed 264.3 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — 30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas State have just 210.8 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — 34th-worst among FBS skill players. UTSA’s defense has allowed 250.7 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.9% of 857 attempts since the 2021 season — tied for 13th-worst among FBS offenses. UTSA’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.1% of attempts since the 2021 season — tied for 35th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas State Skill Players averaged just 9.3 yards per reception (2,287 yards/247 catches) in the 2022 season– tied for worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.0

Texas State’s offense has thrown for 5,292 passing yards in 25 games (just 211.7 YPG) since the 2021 season — 34th-worst among FBS offenses. UTSA’s defense has allowed 264.3 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — 30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas State have just 210.8 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — 34th-worst among FBS skill players. UTSA’s defense has allowed 250.7 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas State Skill Players have averaged just 9.8 yards per reception (4,611 yards/469 catches) since the 2021 season– 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.2

UTSA Offensive Stats & Trends

UTSA’s WRs has averaged 26.0 targets per game since the 2021 season — 20th-highest among FBS WRs. Texas State’s defense has allowed 14.1 receptions per game to WRs since the 2021 season — tied for 27th-worst among FBS defenses.

UTSA’s offense has thrown for 7,991 passing yards in 29 games (275.6 YPG) since the 2021 season — 21st-best among FBS offenses. Texas State’s defense has allowed 263.6 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

UTSA’s QBs has thrown for 8,202 passing yards in 29 games (282.8 YPG) since the 2021 season — tied for 23rd-best among FBS teams. Texas State’s defense has allowed 263.6 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

UTSA WRs have caught 31 touchdown passes in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– 5th most among FBS Teams

UTSA has 640 receptions in 29 games (22.1 per game) since the 2021 season — 24th-best among FBS skill players. Texas State’s defense has allowed 22.2 receptions per game since the 2021 season — tied for 10th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas State Bobcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas State allowed 51.5 receiving yards per game (566/11) to RBs in the 2022 season– worst in FBS; Average: 25.8

Texas State has allowed 437.0 Passing Yards per game (437/1) this season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 223.5

Texas State tackled opponents for a loss on just 5 of 63 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– 5th worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

Texas State has allowed 416.0 receiving yards per game (416/1) this season– 5th-worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 211.0

Texas State has tackled opponents for a loss on 9 of 32 rushing attempts (28% TFL%) this season– 13th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

UTSA Roadrunners Defensive Stats & Trends

UTSA has allowed opponents to catch just 33 of 90 passes (37% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%

UTSA has allowed opponents to catch just 33 of 90 passes (37% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 54%

UTSA has allowed a Completion Pct of just 37% (33 completions/90 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%

UTSA has allowed a Completion Pct of just 37% (33 completions/90 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 54%

UTSA has tackled opponents for a loss on 11 of 38 rushing attempts (29% TFL%) this season– 11th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.