Toledo vs Bowling Green Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

BetMGM Betting Oct 10, 2025, 11:16 AM

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(AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)

Toledo is a -10.5 point favorite vs. Bowling Green
Toledo vs. Bowling Green Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
TV Channel: ESPNU

Toledo (3-2) visit Doyt L. Perry Stadium to take on Bowling Green (2-3) on Oct. 11 in Bowling Green, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Toledo is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-115).

The Toledo vs. Bowling Green Over/Under is 49.5 total points.

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Toledo vs. Bowling Green Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Toledo	-10.5 -115	49.5 -110	-425
Bowling Green	+10.5 -105	49.5 -110	320

Toledo vs Bowling Green Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Toledo will win this game with 77.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Toledo and Bowling Green, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Toledo vs Bowling Green Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Bowling Green will cover the spread with 50.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Toledo Best Bets Today

Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 90% ROI)
Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Toledo has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Toledo has hit the Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.65 Units / 11% ROI)
Toledo have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)

Bowling Green Best Bets Today

Bowling Green has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.60 Units / 38% ROI)
Bowling Green has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.34 Units / 27% ROI)
Bowling Green has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
Bowling Green has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+1.60 Units / 9% ROI)
Bowling Green have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 7 games at home (+0.80 Units / 10% ROI)

Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Toledo is 4-1 against the spread this college football season (+2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI).

Toledo is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -14.73% ROI
Toledo is 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
Toledo is 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI

Bowling Green Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Bowling Green iss 3-2 against the spread this college football season (+0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI).

Bowling Green is 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -0.59% ROI
Bowling Green is 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
Bowling Green is 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI

Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Bowling Green

Toledo opponents has averaged 68.0 Passing Attempts per TD (136 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 20.9

Toledo has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 5 of 175 carries (3%) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 13%

Toledo has allowed 226.0 yards from scrimmage per game this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 379.9

Toledo has allowed 2 touchdowns on 73 completions (36.5 Completions Per TD) this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.0

Toledo opponents averaged 34.2 Passing Attempts per TD (411 Pass Attempts/12 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18.8

Bowling Green: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo

Bowling Green has allowed a Completion Pct of 94% (16 completions/17 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– worst in FBS; Average: 61%

Bowling Green has allowed a Completion Pct of 94% (16 completions/17 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

Bowling Green allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (15 completions/40 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%

Bowling Green allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (15 completions/40 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 54%

Bowling Green has allowed a Completion Pct of 77% (10 completions/13 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%

Matchup Notes for Toledo vs. Bowling Green