Toledo vs Liberty Prediction, Odds, Prop Bets: Boca Raton Bowl

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 20, 2022, 11:10 AM
  • Toledo (8-5) are -4.5 point favorites vs Liberty (8-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
  • Watch the Boca Raton Bowl game on ESPN

The Liberty Flames (9-5) visit FAU Stadium to take on the Toledo Rockets (8-5) on Dec. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Boca Raton for the Boca Raton Bowl.

are betting favorites in Week 17, with the spread sitting at ().

The Toledo vs. Liberty Over/Under is total points.

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Toledo vs. Liberty Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Toledo
Liberty

Toledo vs Liberty Prediction:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Toledo will win this game with 64.7% confidence.

Toledo vs Liberty Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Liberty will cover the spread with 51.7% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Toledo and Liberty, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • Liberty has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.63 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Liberty has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Liberty has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Liberty has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.35 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Liberty has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.10 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.95 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Toledo has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Toledo has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Toledo have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)

Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Toledo has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Toledo is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.15 Units / -38.55% ROI
  • Toledo is 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Toledo is 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI

Liberty Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Liberty has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Liberty is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.65 Units / -25.42% ROI
  • Liberty is 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
  • Liberty is 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI

Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Liberty

Liberty is 11-6 (.647) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season– tied for 12th-best in FBS; Average: .421

Liberty is 10-2 (.833) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: .497

Liberty is undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season– tied for 5th-best in FBS; Average: .555

Liberty is 6-1 (.857) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2021 season– tied for 8th-best in FBS; Average: .571

Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends

Liberty WRs have 24 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since last season– 3rd most among FBS Teams

Liberty Skill Players have 29 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

Liberty QBs have fumbled 4 times in the 4th quarter this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

Liberty Skill Players have averaged just 9.3 yards per reception (176 yards/19 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.1

Liberty WRs have caught 13 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for 4th most among FBS Teams

Liberty Offensive Stats & Trends

Toledo TEs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Toledo Skill Players have 15 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Toledo Skill Players have 11 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

Toledo RBs have not rushed for a 0 TD on 54 carries (inf Carries Per TD) in close and late situations this season– tied for worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 24.2

Toledo QBs have 11 completions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

Liberty Flames Defensive Stats & Trends

Liberty has tackled opponents for a loss on 105 of 434 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

Liberty has tackled opponents for a loss on 202 of 953 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) since last season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

Liberty has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (72/664) since last season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 7%

Liberty has tackled opponents for a loss on 105 of 434 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) this season– best in FBS; Average: 16%.

Liberty has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (72/664) since last season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 7%

Toledo Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends

Toledo has allowed a passer rating of just 114.3 (351.0 Pass Attempts) this season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 133.8

Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (56 completions/131 attempts) on 3rd and long since last season– tied for 4th best in FBS; Average: 54%

Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (56 completions/131 attempts) on 3rd and long since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%

Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 44% (28 completions/64 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 4th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 55%

Toledo has allowed opponents to catch just 56 of 131 passes (43% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.