- Toledo (8-5) are -4.5 point favorites vs Liberty (8-4)
- Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
- Watch the Boca Raton Bowl game on ESPN
The Liberty Flames (9-5) visit FAU Stadium to take on the Toledo Rockets (8-5) on Dec. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Boca Raton for the Boca Raton Bowl.
– are betting favorites in Week 17, with the spread sitting at ().
The Toledo vs. Liberty Over/Under is total points.
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Toledo vs. Liberty Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Toledo | |||
| Liberty |
Toledo vs Liberty Prediction:
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Toledo will win this game with 64.7% confidence.
Toledo vs Liberty Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Liberty will cover the spread with 51.7% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Toledo and Liberty, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Toledo Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Liberty has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.63 Units / 51% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.35 Units / 5% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Liberty Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.95 Units / 73% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Toledo have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Toledo has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).
- Toledo is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.15 Units / -38.55% ROI
- Toledo is 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Toledo is 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
Liberty Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Liberty has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).
- Liberty is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.65 Units / -25.42% ROI
- Liberty is 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
- Liberty is 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Liberty
Liberty is 11-6 (.647) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season– tied for 12th-best in FBS; Average: .421
Liberty is 10-2 (.833) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: .497
Liberty is undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season– tied for 5th-best in FBS; Average: .555
Liberty is 6-1 (.857) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2021 season– tied for 8th-best in FBS; Average: .571
Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends
Liberty WRs have 24 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since last season– 3rd most among FBS Teams
Liberty Skill Players have 29 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams
Liberty QBs have fumbled 4 times in the 4th quarter this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams
Liberty Skill Players have averaged just 9.3 yards per reception (176 yards/19 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.1
Liberty WRs have caught 13 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for 4th most among FBS Teams
Liberty Offensive Stats & Trends
Toledo TEs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– tied for most among FBS Teams
Toledo Skill Players have 15 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– tied for most among FBS Teams
Toledo Skill Players have 11 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams
Toledo RBs have not rushed for a 0 TD on 54 carries (inf Carries Per TD) in close and late situations this season– tied for worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 24.2
Toledo QBs have 11 completions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams
Liberty Flames Defensive Stats & Trends
Liberty has tackled opponents for a loss on 105 of 434 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.
Liberty has tackled opponents for a loss on 202 of 953 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) since last season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.
Liberty has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (72/664) since last season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 7%
Liberty has tackled opponents for a loss on 105 of 434 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) this season– best in FBS; Average: 16%.
Liberty has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (72/664) since last season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 7%
Toledo Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends
Toledo has allowed a passer rating of just 114.3 (351.0 Pass Attempts) this season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 133.8
Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (56 completions/131 attempts) on 3rd and long since last season– tied for 4th best in FBS; Average: 54%
Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (56 completions/131 attempts) on 3rd and long since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%
Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 44% (28 completions/64 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 4th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 55%
Toledo has allowed opponents to catch just 56 of 131 passes (43% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%
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