Toledo vs Michigan State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 1

• Michigan State Spartans is a -10 point favorite vs. Toledo Rockets
• Toledo vs. Michigan State Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
• TV Channel: FS1

Toledo (0-0) visit Spartan Stadium to take on Michigan State (0-0) on Sep. 4 in East Lansing, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 pm.

The Michigan State Spartans are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -10 (-108).

The Toledo vs. Michigan State Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

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Toledo vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Toledo vs Michigan State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Michigan State will win this game with 70.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Toledo Rockets and Michigan State Spartans, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Toledo vs Michigan State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan State will cover the spread with 56.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Toledo Best Bets Today

• Toledo has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.80 Units / 60% ROI)
• Toledo have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
• Toledo have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• Toledo has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 5% ROI)

Michigan State Best Bets Today

• Michigan State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
• Michigan State has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 35% ROI)
• Michigan State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 49% ROI)
• Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.60 Units / 36% ROI)
• Michigan State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)

Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan State

Toledo was 5-1 (.833) when not losing a fumble last season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .533

Toledo was 7-2 (.778) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .668

Toledo was 7-3 (.700) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .526

Toledo was 10-2 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2023 season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .557

Michigan State: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo

Michigan State was 2-7 (.222) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-28th-worst in FBS; Average: .442

Michigan State was 4-1 (.800) when in a one score game last season– T-6th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Michigan State was 3-7 (.300) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-39th-worst in FBS; Average: .418

Michigan State was 2-4 (.333) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .481

Matchup Notes for Toledo vs. Michigan State

Michigan State’s TEs had 57 receptions in 12 games (4.8 per game) last season — 3rd-best among Big Ten TEs. Toledo’s defense allowed just 13.6 receptions per game last season — 2nd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Michigan State’s TEs had 57 receptions in 12 games (4.8 per game) last season — 3rd-best among Big Ten TEs. Toledo’s defense allowed just 13.6 receptions per game last season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan State’s TEs had 50.7 receiving yards per game last season — 4th-best among Big Ten TEs. Toledo’s defense allowed just 158.0 receiving yards per game last season — 3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Toledo’s offense averaged 2.1 passing TDs per game last season — T-20th-best among FBS offenses. Michigan State’s defense allowed 1.9 passing TDs per game last season — T-2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Toledo had 2.1 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-19th-best among FBS skill players. Michigan State’s defense allowed 1.9 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Toledo had 2.1 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-19th-best among FBS skill players. Michigan State’s defense allowed 1.9 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends

Toledo RBs averaged just 3.7 Yards per Carry (294 yards/80 carries) in the 4th quarter last season– 10th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2

Toledo’s offense averaged 2.1 passing TDs per game last season — T-20th-best among FBS offenses. Michigan State’s defense allowed 1.9 passing TDs per game last season — T-2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Toledo RBs averaged 3.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (335 yards / 89 touches) in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5

Toledo TEs caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Toledo WRs averaged 14.8 receptions per game (192/13) last season– T-27th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.3

Michigan State Offensive Stats & Trends

Michigan State’s TEs had 57 receptions in 12 games (4.8 per game) last season — 3rd-best among Big Ten TEs. Toledo’s defense allowed just 13.6 receptions per game last season — 2nd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Michigan State TEs had just one touchdown on 50 receptions last season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3

Michigan State threw 0 TDs on 40 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in close and late situations last season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.8

Michigan State RBs rushed for 4 TDs on 40 carries (10 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 6th-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.5

Michigan State were sacked on 18% of pass attempts (17/95) in the 4th quarter last season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 7%

Toledo Defensive Stats & Trends

Toledo allowed a Completion Pct of just 9% (1 completions/11 attempts) on 3rd and short last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 63%

Toledo allowed a Completion Pct of just 9% (1 completions/11 attempts) on 3rd and short last season– best in FBS; Average: 63%

Toledo allowed 5.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (3,317 yards / 644 touches) last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 6.9

Toledo allowed opponents to catch just 6 of 20 passes (30% Reception Pct) in close and late situations last season– best in FBS; Average: 61%

Toledo did not allow a first down on a pass on 3rd and short last season– best in FBS; Average: 51%

Michigan State Defensive Stats & Trends

Michigan State did not record a sack (51 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 16.2

Michigan State had no interceptions and 15 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7.9

Michigan State did not record a sack (51 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.8

Michigan State did not tackle opponents for a loss on any of 29 rushing attempts on 3rd and short last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 11%.

Michigan State did not tackle opponents for a loss on any of 29 rushing attempts on 3rd and short last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 12%.

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