Troy vs Arkansas State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2022, 9:00 AM
  • Troy (9-2) are -13.5 point favorites vs Arkansas State (3-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points

The Troy Trojans (9-2) visit Centennial Bank Stadium to take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-8) on Nov. 26. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST in Jonesboro.

Troy are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-110).

The Troy vs. Arkansas State Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

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Troy vs. Arkansas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Troy-13.5 -11046.5 -110-550
Arkansas State +13.5 -11046.5 -110+380

Troy vs Arkansas State Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Troy will win this game with 72.9% confidence.

Troy vs Arkansas State Spread Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas State will cover the spread with 70.2% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Troy and Arkansas State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


  • Troy has hit the Moneyline in their last 8 games (+9.30 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Troy has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Troy has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.54 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Troy has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games (+5.96 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Troy have covered the Spread in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Arkansas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.65 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Arkansas State has hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Arkansas State has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.50 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Arkansas State have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)

Troy Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Troy has gone 8-3 against the spread this college football season (+4.7 Units / 38.68% ROI).

  • Troy is 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.3 Units / 27.14% ROI
  • Troy is 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
  • Troy is 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI

Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas State has gone 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI).

  • Arkansas State is 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -5 Units / -27.25% ROI
  • Arkansas State is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
  • Arkansas State is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Troy: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State

Troy is 6-1 (.750) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — tied for 13th-best in FBS; Average: .497

Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Troy

Arkansas State is 2-16 (.105) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season– 8th-worst in FBS; Average: .383

Arkansas State is winless (0-5) when losing at least one fumble since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .390

Arkansas State is 1-10 (.091) when intercepting no passes since the 2021 season– tied for 12th-worst in FBS; Average: .355

Arkansas State is 2-15 (.111) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season– tied for 8th-worst in FBS; Average: .407

Matchup Notes for Troy vs. Arkansas State

Troy’s QBs has rushed for -296 yards on 100 carries (just -3.0 YPC) since the 2021 season — worst among FBS teams. Arkansas State’s defense have allowed 5.3 YPC since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-worst among NonP5 defenses.

Troy Offensive Stats & Trends

Troy WRs have caught 7 touchdown passes in close and late situations this season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

Troy WRs have 12 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– tied for 3rd most among FBS Teams

Troy Skill Players have caught 8 touchdown passes in close and late situations this season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

Troy WRs have caught 7 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

Troy QBs have averaged just -3.0 Yards per Carry (-296 yards/100 carries) since the 2021 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 2.7

Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State RBs have been targeted 50 times on 3rd down since last season– 4th most among FBS Teams

Arkansas State RBs have averaged just 3.5 Yards per Carry (864 yards/247 carries) in the 1st half since last season– 2nd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Arkansas State RBs have carried the ball 13 times on 3rd down this season– 3rd fewest among FBS Teams

Arkansas State RBs have been targeted 20 times in the 1st quarter this season– tied for 4th most among FBS Teams

Arkansas State RBs have averaged 3.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (584 yards / 154 touches) on 1st down this season– tied for 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Troy Trojans Defensive Stats & Trends

Troy opponents has averaged 37.8 Passing Attempts per TD (340 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) this season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.2

Troy has allowed 9 touchdowns on 206 completions (22.9 Completions Per TD) this season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.6

Troy has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 20 of 340 attempts (6%) — worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%

Troy has allowed just 10.9 yards per completion (2,238 yards/206 completions) this season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.9

Troy has allowed just 9.6 yards per completion (857 yards/89 completions) on 1st down this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.1

Arkansas State Red Wolves Defensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State has not recorded a sack (60 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 16.0

Arkansas State has not recorded a sack (60 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.0

Arkansas State has allowed first downs on 42% of pass attempts in the Red Zone since last season– worst in FBS; Average: 22%

Arkansas State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 16 of 303 attempts (5%) this season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 2%

Arkansas State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 16 of 303 attempts (5%) this season– 2nd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 2%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.