Troy vs Missouri Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

• The Missouri Tigers are a -27 point favorite vs. the Troy Trojans
• Troy vs. Missouri Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
• TV Channel: SEC+

Troy (2-0) visit Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field to take on Missouri (2-0) on Sep. 19 in Columbia, MO. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 pm.

The Missouri Tigers are betting favorites in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -27 (-108).

The Troy vs. Missouri Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

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Troy vs. Missouri Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Troy vs Missouri Prediction:

The winning team model predicts will win this game with confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Troy Trojans and the Missouri Tigers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Troy vs Missouri Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts will cover the spread with confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Troy Best Bets Today

• Troy has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• Troy has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
• Troy have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 50% ROI)
• Troy have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.80 Units / 50% ROI)
• Troy have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)

Missouri Best Bets Today

• Missouri has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
• Missouri has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+3.10 Units / 1% ROI)
• Missouri has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Missouri has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.30 Units / 9% ROI)
• Missouri has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.00 Units / 0% ROI)

Troy Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Troy Trojans is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).

• Troy is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 7.55% ROI
• Troy is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
• Troy is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI

Missouri Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Missouri Tigers is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.15 Units / -6.67% ROI).

• Missouri is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 51.28% ROI
• Missouri is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
• Missouri is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI

Troy: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri

Troy was winless (0-4) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .382

Troy was winless (0-4) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .314

Troy was 1-7 (.125) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-14th-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Troy was 3-5 (.375) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-40th-worst in FBS; Average: .536

Missouri: Keys to the Game vs. Troy

Missouri was undefeated (5-0) when in a one score game last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Missouri was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .632

Missouri was 6-1 (.857) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season– 8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .631

Missouri was 8-3 (.727) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-15th-best in FBS; Average: .442

Matchup Notes for Troy vs. Missouri

Missouri’s offense threw for 2,444 passing yards in 13 games (just 188.0 YPG) last season — 34th-worst among FBS offenses. Troy’s defense allowed just 196.2 passing yards per game last season — 35th-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri’s QBs threw for 2,444 passing yards in 13 games (just 188.0 YPG) last season — 35th-worst among FBS teams. Troy’s defense allowed just 196.2 passing yards per game last season — 35th-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri had just 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-3rd-worst among SEC skill players. Troy’s defense allowed just 1.1 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

Troy’s RBs had just 10.7 receiving yards per game last season — 11th-worst among FBS RBs. Missouri’s defense allowed just 173.5 receiving yards per game last season — 2nd-best among SEC defenses.

Troy’s RBs rushed for 1,131 yards on 277 carries (just 4.1 YPC) last season — T-13th-worst among FBS RBs. Missouri’s defense allowed just 3.2 YPC last season — 5th-best among SEC defenses.

Troy’s RBs had just 10.7 receiving yards per game last season — 11th-worst among FBS RBs. Missouri’s defense allowed just 173.5 receiving yards per game last season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.

Troy Offensive Stats & Trends

Troy were sacked on 14% of pass attempts (59/430) last season– 4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Offenses; Average: 7%

Troy RBs averaged 18.8 yards per target (94 yards/5 targets) on 3rd down last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 6.0

Troy RBs rushed for 105 yards in the 1st quarter last week– 3rd-most among FBS Teams

Troy were sacked 59 times last season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 2.0

Troy RBs averaged 80.8 rushing yards per game (1,131/14) last season– 12th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 123.3

Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends

Missouri’s offense threw for 2,444 passing yards in 13 games (just 188.0 YPG) last season — 34th-worst among FBS offenses. Troy’s defense allowed just 196.2 passing yards per game last season — 35th-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri WRs averaged a touchdown every 23.0 receptions (161 Rec/7 TDs) last season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 11.4

Missouri’s QBs threw for 2,444 passing yards in 13 games (just 188.0 YPG) last season — 35th-worst among FBS teams. Troy’s defense allowed just 196.2 passing yards per game last season — 35th-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri RBs averaged 203.8 rushing yards per game (2,649/13) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 123.3

Missouri had just 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-3rd-worst among SEC skill players. Troy’s defense allowed just 1.1 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

Troy Defensive Stats & Trends

Troy has no interceptions and 18 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 8.8

Troy allowed 2.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (197 yards / 88 touches) in the Red Zone last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8

Troy allowed 2.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (197 yards / 88 touches) in the Red Zone last season– T-best in FBS; Average: 3.7

Troy tackled opponents for a loss on 18 of 76 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 14%.

Troy sacked opposing QBs on 10% of pass attempts (37/389) last season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: 7%

Missouri Defensive Stats & Trends

Missouri sacked opponents 6 times in the Red Zone last season– most in the SEC

Missouri allowed a Completion Pct of just 49% (23 completions/47 attempts) in close and late situations last season– best in the SEC; Average: 61%

Missouri allowed 2.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (231 yards / 101 touches) in the Red Zone last season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: 3.7

Missouri allowed opponents to catch just 23 of 46 passes (50% Reception Pct) in close and late situations last season– best in the SEC; Average: 62%

Missouri allowed 6 rushing TDs on 60 carries (10 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.7

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