- Texas St is a -7.5 point favorite vs. Troy
- Troy vs. Texas State Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
Troy (3-2) visit UFCU Stadium to take on Texas State (3-2) on Oct. 11 in San Marcos, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT.
Texas St is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).
The Troy vs. Texas State Over/Under is 54.5 total points.
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Troy vs. Texas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Troy | +7.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | 260 |
| Texas State | -7.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -325 |
Troy vs Texas State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Texas State will win this game with 75.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Troy and Texas St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Troy vs Texas State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas State will cover the spread with 53.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Troy Best Bets Today
- Troy has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games (+8.25 Units / 50% ROI)
- Troy has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+3.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Troy have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Troy has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 6 away games (+3.15 Units / 52% ROI)
- Troy has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 49% ROI)
Texas State Best Bets Today
- Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.62 Units / 11% ROI)
Troy Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Troy is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).
- Troy is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.9 Units / 63.33% ROI
- Troy is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
- Troy is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas St iss 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Texas State is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -29.2% ROI
- Texas State is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Texas State is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Troy: Keys to the Game vs. Texas State
Texas State was 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season– T-15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .583
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– 6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .612
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .643
Texas State was 5-1 (.833) when not losing a fumble last season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .533
Texas State: Keys to the Game vs. Troy
Troy RBs have averaged 9.8 Yards per Carry (186 yards/19 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Troy’s WRs has gained 717 yards on 61 receptions (just 11.8 YPR) this season — T-31st-worst among FBS WRs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 9.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.
Troy’s WRs has gained 717 yards on 61 receptions (just 11.8 YPR) this season — T-31st-worst among FBS WRs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 9.7 Yards Per Reception this season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.
Troy’s RBs has averaged just 5.8 yards after the catch this season — T-28th-worst among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 8.7 RAC this season — best among NonP5 defenses.
Troy’s WRs has averaged just 12.2 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS WRs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2024 season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.
Matchup Notes for Troy vs. Texas State
Troy RBs have averaged 9.8 Yards per Carry (186 yards/19 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Troy’s WRs has gained 717 yards on 61 receptions (just 11.8 YPR) this season — T-31st-worst among FBS WRs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 9.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.
Troy’s WRs has gained 717 yards on 61 receptions (just 11.8 YPR) this season — T-31st-worst among FBS WRs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 9.7 Yards Per Reception this season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.
Troy’s RBs has averaged just 5.8 yards after the catch this season — T-28th-worst among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 8.7 RAC this season — best among NonP5 defenses.
Troy’s WRs has averaged just 12.2 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS WRs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2024 season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.
Texas State was 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season– T-15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .583
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– 6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .612
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .643
Texas State was 5-1 (.833) when not losing a fumble last season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .533
Troy Offensive Stats & Trends
Texas State was 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season– T-15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .583
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– 6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .612
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .643
Texas State was 5-1 (.833) when not losing a fumble last season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .533
Texas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Troy RBs have averaged 9.8 Yards per Carry (186 yards/19 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Troy’s WRs has gained 717 yards on 61 receptions (just 11.8 YPR) this season — T-31st-worst among FBS WRs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 9.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.
Troy’s WRs has gained 717 yards on 61 receptions (just 11.8 YPR) this season — T-31st-worst among FBS WRs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 9.7 Yards Per Reception this season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.
Troy’s RBs has averaged just 5.8 yards after the catch this season — T-28th-worst among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 8.7 RAC this season — best among NonP5 defenses.
Troy’s WRs has averaged just 12.2 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS WRs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2024 season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.
Troy Defensive Stats & Trends
Texas State was 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season– T-15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .583
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– 6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .612
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .643
Texas State was 5-1 (.833) when not losing a fumble last season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .533
Texas State Defensive Stats & Trends
Troy RBs have averaged 9.8 Yards per Carry (186 yards/19 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Troy’s WRs has gained 717 yards on 61 receptions (just 11.8 YPR) this season — T-31st-worst among FBS WRs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 9.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.
Troy’s WRs has gained 717 yards on 61 receptions (just 11.8 YPR) this season — T-31st-worst among FBS WRs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 9.7 Yards Per Reception this season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.
Troy’s RBs has averaged just 5.8 yards after the catch this season — T-28th-worst among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 8.7 RAC this season — best among NonP5 defenses.
Troy’s WRs has averaged just 12.2 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS WRs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2024 season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.
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