Tulsa vs Arkansas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

• The Arkansas Razorbacks are a -7 point favorite vs. the Tulsa Golden Hurricane
• Tulsa vs. Arkansas Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
• TV Channel: SEC+

Tulsa (3-0) visit Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium to take on Arkansas (1-2) on Sep. 26 in Fayetteville, AR. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 pm.

The Arkansas Razorbacks are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).

The Tulsa vs. Arkansas Over/Under is 49.5 total points.

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Tulsa vs. Arkansas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Tulsa vs Arkansas Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Arkansas will win this game with 62.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Tulsa Golden Hurricane and the Arkansas Razorbacks, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Tulsa vs Arkansas Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas will cover the spread with 59.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Tulsa Best Bets Today

• Tulsa has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
• Tulsa has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.75 Units / 47% ROI)
• Tulsa has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• Tulsa has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 away games (+0.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• Tulsa has hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 14% ROI)

Arkansas Best Bets Today

• Arkansas has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• Arkansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.55 Units / 29% ROI)
• Arkansas have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Arkansas has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.40 Units / 29% ROI)
• Arkansas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.30 Units / 18% ROI)

Tulsa Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Tulsa Golden Hurricane is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

• Tulsa is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.1 Units / 87.93% ROI
• Tulsa is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.35 Units / -100% ROI
• Tulsa is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 92.31% ROI

Arkansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas Razorbacks is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).

• Arkansas is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
• Arkansas is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
• Arkansas is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Tulsa: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas

Tulsa was 1-8 (.111) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-6th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .462

Tulsa was 2-9 (.182) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: .454

Tulsa was 1-8 (.111) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: .481

Tulsa was 1-7 (.125) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-14th-worst in FBS; Average: .414

Arkansas: Keys to the Game vs. Tulsa

Arkansas is 1-8 (.111) when rushing more than 30 times this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .672

Arkansas is winless (0-8) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .455

Arkansas is winless (0-8) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .489

Arkansas was 4-1 (.800) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Matchup Notes for Tulsa vs. Arkansas

Arkansas’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 13.6% of 381 attempts last season — T-11th-best among FBS offenses. Tulsa’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.0% of attempts last season — 33rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas had 15 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — T-4th-most among SEC skill players. Tulsa’s defense allowed 15 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — T-4th-most among NonP5 defenses.

Arkansas’s TEs had 5 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — T-2nd-most among SEC TEs. Tulsa’s defense allowed 15 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — T-4th-most among NonP5 defenses.

Tulsa’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-18th-worst among FBS WRs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 13.3 RAC since the 2024 season — worst among SEC defenses.

Tulsa has averaged just 10.7 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-29th-worst among FBS skill players. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 13.3 RAC since the 2024 season — worst among SEC defenses.

Tulsa’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-18th-worst among FBS WRs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 13.3 RAC since the 2024 season — 6th-worst among FBS defenses.

Tulsa Offensive Stats & Trends

Tulsa WRs have averaged a touchdown every 23.3 receptions (140 Rec/6 TDs) this season– 8th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

Tulsa RBs have averaged 149.8 rushing yards per game (1,798/12) this season– 28th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 123.3

Tulsa RBs were targeted 7.5 times per game (90/12) last season– T-6th-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

Tulsa’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-18th-worst among FBS WRs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 13.3 RAC since the 2024 season — worst among SEC defenses.

Tulsa has averaged just 10.7 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-29th-worst among FBS skill players. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 13.3 RAC since the 2024 season — worst among SEC defenses.

Arkansas Offensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas WRs averaged 25.8 yards per reception (620 yards/24 catches) on 3rd and long last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

Arkansas TEs have averaged 19.2 yards per reception (844 yards/44 catches) this season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 11.7

Arkansas TEs have averaged 19.2 yards per reception (844 yards/44 catches) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.1

Arkansas TEs averaged 19.2 yards per reception (844 yards/44 catches) last season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 11.7

Arkansas Skill Players averaged 20.6 yards per reception (743 yards/36 catches) on 3rd and long last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

Tulsa Defensive Stats & Trends

Tulsa allowed 38 TD passes last season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Tulsa allowed 38 TD passes last season– most in FBS

Tulsa did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

Tulsa allowed 316.0 receiving yards per game (3,792/12) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 219.2

Tulsa allowed 67 TDs last season– most in FBS

Arkansas Defensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 49 of 339 attempts (14%) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 9%

Arkansas allowed passes of 20+ yards on 49 of 339 attempts (14%) last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 9%

Arkansas has allowed 13.5 yards per completion (2,871 yards/213 completions) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 11.3

Arkansas had no interceptions and 11 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 5.8

Arkansas has allowed first downs on 100% of pass attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 51%

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