Tulsa vs South Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 13

South Florida quarterback Byrum Brown (17) runs for a first down during the second half of the Boca Raton Bowl NCAA college football game against Syracuse, Thursday, Dec. 21, 2023, in Boca Raton, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
(AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
  • South Florida is a -17.5 point favorite vs. Tulsa
  • Tulsa vs. South Florida Total (Over/Under): 60.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN+

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-7) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the South Florida Bulls (5-5) on Nov. 23 in Tampa, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

South Florida is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -17.5 (-105).

The Tulsa vs. South Florida Over/Under is 60.5 total points.

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Tulsa vs. South Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Tulsa+17.5 -11560.5 -110+550
South Florida -17.5 -10560.5 -110-800

Tulsa vs South Florida Prediction:

The winning team model predicts South Florida will win this game with 86.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Tulsa and South Florida, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Tulsa vs South Florida Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts South Florida will cover the spread with 67.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Tulsa has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.85 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Tulsa has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Tulsa has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.85 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Tulsa have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.60 Units / 5% ROI)
  • South Florida has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • South Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.85 Units / 28% ROI)
  • South Florida have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  • South Florida has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.35 Units / 6% ROI)
  • South Florida has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.80 Units / 12% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Tulsa players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Tulsa Player Prop Bets Today

  • Bill Jackson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Kamdyn Benjamin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for South Florida players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best South Florida Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Sean Atkins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Tulsa Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Tulsa is 5-5 against the spread this college football season (-0.4 Units / -3.69% ROI).

  • Tulsa is 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -32.78% ROI
  • Tulsa is 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
  • Tulsa is 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI

South Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

South Florida is 5-5 against the spread this college football season (-0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • South Florida is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -5.67% ROI
  • South Florida is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -13.64% ROI
  • South Florida is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 5.45% ROI

Tulsa: Keys to the Game vs. South Florida

Tulsa is 2-12 (.143) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst in FBS; Average: .471

Tulsa is 7-15 (.318) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 14th-worst in FBS; Average: .619

Tulsa is 5-7 (.417) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 36th-worst in FBS; Average: .536

Tulsa is 5-14 (.263) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 28th-worst in FBS; Average: .424

South Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Tulsa

South Florida is undefeated (5-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .590

South Florida is undefeated (5-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .572

South Florida is 4-2 (.667) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .505

South Florida is 3-5 (.375) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .536

Matchup Notes for Tulsa vs. South Florida

South Florida’s WRs has averaged 24.8 targets per game this season — T-21st-highest among FBS WRs. Tulsa’s defense has allowed 13.8 receptions per game to WRs this season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Florida’s WRs has averaged just 11.1 yards after the catch this season — T-9th-worst among FBS WRs. Tulsa’s defense has allowed 15.0 RAC to WRs this season — T-9th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Florida has just 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-7th-worst among FBS skill players. Tulsa’s defense has allowed 2.9 receiving touchdowns per game this season — 2nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Tulsa’s RBs have 34.0 receiving yards per game this season — 30th-best among FBS RBs. South Florida’s defense has allowed 31.7 receiving yards per game to RBs this season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.

Tulsa’s RBs have 34.0 receiving yards per game this season — 30th-best among FBS RBs. South Florida’s defense has allowed 265.9 receiving yards per game this season — 10th-worst among FBS defenses.

Cooper Legas (TSA) has averaged just just 14.8 pass attempts per game this season — T-5th-lowest of Qualified Quarterbacks. South Florida’s defense has faced an average of 33.7 pass attempts per game this season — 27th-highest among FBS defenses.

Tulsa Offensive Stats & Trends

Tulsa RBs have rushed for 11 TDs on 644 carries (58.5 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– 5th-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.9

Tulsa RBs have rushed for 3 TDs on 241 carries (80.3 Carries Per TD) this season– 7th-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.1

Tulsa WRs have averaged just 10.2 yards per reception (245 yards/24 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 9th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 14.6

Tulsa QBs have fumbled 4 times in the 4th quarter this season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams

Tulsa’s RBs have 34.0 receiving yards per game this season — 30th-best among FBS RBs. South Florida’s defense has allowed 31.7 receiving yards per game to RBs this season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

South Florida WRs have averaged a touchdown every 27.2 receptions (136 Rec/5 TDs) this season– 7th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2

South Florida’s WRs has averaged 24.8 targets per game this season — T-21st-highest among FBS WRs. Tulsa’s defense has allowed 13.8 receptions per game to WRs this season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Florida RBs rushed for 6 TDs last week– most among FBS Teams

South Florida’s WRs has averaged just 11.1 yards after the catch this season — T-9th-worst among FBS WRs. Tulsa’s defense has allowed 15.0 RAC to WRs this season — T-9th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Florida RBs have averaged 7.2 Yards per Carry (508 yards/71 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 8th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2

Tulsa Golden Hurricane Defensive Stats & Trends

Tulsa has no interceptions and 27 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10.1

Tulsa has allowed 293.1 Passing Yards per game (6,449/22) since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 221.1

Tulsa has no interceptions (82 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 38.8

Tulsa has allowed 309.1 Passing Yards per game (3,091/10) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 218.6

Tulsa has allowed 29 TD passes this season– 2nd-most in FBS

South Florida Bulls Defensive Stats & Trends

South Florida has tackled opponents for a loss on 29 of 121 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

South Florida has tackled opponents for a loss on 29 of 121 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

South Florida has allowed a Completion Pct of 69% (43 completions/62 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%

South Florida has sacked opponents 6 times in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most in FBS

South Florida has tackled opponents for a loss on 15 of 54 rushing attempts (28% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.


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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.