UCLA vs Maryland Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

• The UCLA Bruins are a -1.5 point favorite vs. the Maryland Terrapins
• UCLA vs. Maryland Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
• TV Channel: BTN

UCLA (3-0) visit SECU Stadium to take on Maryland (2-1) on Sep. 26 in College Park, MD. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:30 pm.

The UCLA Bruins are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The UCLA vs. Maryland Over/Under is 56.5 total points.

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UCLA vs. Maryland Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

UCLA vs Maryland Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UCLA will win this game with 51.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the UCLA Bruins and the Maryland Terrapins, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

UCLA vs Maryland Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCLA will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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UCLA Best Bets Today

• UCLA has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+13.15 Units / 66% ROI)
• UCLA has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+13.05 Units / 58% ROI)
• UCLA have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• UCLA has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• UCLA has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)

Maryland Best Bets Today

• Maryland has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+3.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• Maryland has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
• Maryland have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Maryland has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• Maryland has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)

UCLA Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UCLA Bruins is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).

• UCLA is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 23.81% ROI
• UCLA is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
• UCLA is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Maryland Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Maryland Terrapins is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

• Maryland is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• Maryland is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
• Maryland is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

UCLA: Keys to the Game vs. Maryland

UCLA is winless (0-7) when not forcing and recovering a fumble this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .524

UCLA is winless (0-7) when not forcing and recovering a fumble this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .484

UCLA was 3-6 (.333) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-15th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .515

UCLA was 5-2 (.714) when in a one score game last season– 11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Maryland: Keys to the Game vs. UCLA

Maryland is 1-7 (.125) when throwing at least 1 interception this season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .436

Maryland is 3-8 (.273) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

Maryland was 3-7 (.300) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .454

Maryland was 1-7 (.125) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-14th-worst in FBS; Average: .414

Matchup Notes for UCLA vs. Maryland

Maryland’s WRs has 243 receptions in 15 games (16.2 per game) since the 2024 season — best among Big Ten WRs. UCLA’s defense has allowed just 10.0 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.

Maryland’s WRs has 243 receptions in 15 games (16.2 per game) since the 2024 season — 12th-best among FBS WRs. UCLA’s defense has allowed just 10.0 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.

Maryland has 373 receptions in 15 games (24.9 per game) since the 2024 season — best among Big Ten skill players. UCLA’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs since the 2024 season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

UCLA’s offense threw for 2,163 passing yards in 12 games (just 180.2 YPG) last season — 23rd-worst among FBS offenses. Maryland’s defense allowed 226.5 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

UCLA’s TEs had 32 receptions in 12 games (just 2.7 per game) last season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Maryland’s defense allowed 20.2 receptions per game last season — T-4th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

UCLA’s WRs had just 127.2 receiving yards per game last season — 30th-worst among FBS WRs. Maryland’s defense allowed 226.5 receiving yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

UCLA Offensive Stats & Trends

UCLA TEs averaged 20.9 yards per reception (251 yards/12 catches) with 7-10 yards to go in the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.2

UCLA RBs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

UCLA TEs have averaged just 6.7 yards per reception (214 yards/32 catches) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.1

UCLA Skill Players have averaged just 8.5 yards per reception (966 yards/114 catches) in the 1st half this season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.4

UCLA RBs rushed for 3 TDs on 45 carries (15 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 4th-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.5

Maryland Offensive Stats & Trends

Maryland Skill Players have been targeted 40.1 times per game (481/12) this season– highest among Big Ten Teams; Average: 28.3

Maryland WRs have averaged a touchdown every 3.7 receptions (11 Rec/3 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 1.8

Maryland TEs have caught just 7 of 21 passes (33% Reception Pct) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 68%

Maryland Skill Players were targeted 151 times in the 4th quarter last season– most among Big Ten Teams

Maryland threw 7 TDs on 54 pass attempts (one TD every 7.7 Pass Attempts) in the Red Zone last season– 7th-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 3.7

UCLA Defensive Stats & Trends

UCLA has averaged a sack every 32.5 pass attempts (325 Pass Attempts/10 Sacks) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.3

UCLA has allowed a Completion Pct of 81% (25 completions/31 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 62%

UCLA has averaged a sack every 32.5 pass attempts (325 Pass Attempts/10 Sacks) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 13.8

UCLA has tackled opponents for a loss on just 42 of 440 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season– T-2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

UCLA has averaged 0.8 sacks per game this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 2.1

Maryland Defensive Stats & Trends

Maryland has forced 2 fumbles on 479 carries (239.5 Carries Per Fumble) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 47.5

Maryland has forced 2 fumbles on 479 carries (239.5 Carries Per Fumble) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 46.0

Maryland allowed first downs on 41% of pass attempts in the Red Zone last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 22%

Maryland did not record a sack (49 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 16.2

Maryland has not recorded a sack (49 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 16.2

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