UCLA vs Michigan St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 7

Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith, left, talks with chief of staff, Dan Van De Riet, right, before the first half in an NCAA college football game against Illinois, Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in Champaign, Ill.
(AP Photo/Matt Marton)
  • Michigan St is a -8.5 point favorite vs. UCLA
  • UCLA vs. Michigan State Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
  • TV Channel: BTN

UCLA (1-4) visit Spartan Stadium to take on Michigan State (3-2) on Oct. 11 in East Lansing, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Michigan St is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).

The UCLA vs. Michigan State Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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UCLA vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
UCLA+8.5 -11055.5 -115250
Michigan State -8.5 -11055.5 -105-300

UCLA vs Michigan State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Michigan State will win this game with 71.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both UCLA and Michigan St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

UCLA vs Michigan State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCLA will cover the spread with 54.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • UCLA has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 40% ROI)
  • UCLA has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • UCLA has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 48% ROI)
  • UCLA has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • UCLA have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.85 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.90 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.75 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 52% ROI)

UCLA Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UCLA is 2-3 against the spread this college football season (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI).

  • UCLA is 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.5 Units / 33.33% ROI
  • UCLA is 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • UCLA is 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI

Michigan State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan St iss 2-3 against the spread this college football season (-1.25 Units / -22.94% ROI).

  • Michigan State is 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 2.52% ROI
  • Michigan State is 4-1 when betting the Over for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
  • Michigan State is 1-4 when betting the Under for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI

UCLA: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan State

Michigan State has 296 receptions in 17 games (just 17.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten skill players. UCLA’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Michigan State has 296 receptions in 17 games (just 17.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten skill players. UCLA’s defense has allowed 4.4 receptions per game to TEs since the 2024 season — T-4th-worst among FBS defenses.

Michigan State have been sacked on 30% of pass attempts (9/30) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Big Ten Offenses; Average: 7%

Michigan State’s WRs has 181 receptions in 17 games (just 10.6 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten WRs. UCLA’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan State’s WRs has 181 receptions in 17 games (just 10.6 per game) since the 2024 season — T-34th-worst among FBS WRs. UCLA’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan State: Keys to the Game vs. UCLA

UCLA has no interceptions and 10 TD passes allowed this season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1.7

UCLA has no interceptions and 10 TD passes allowed this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 1.7

UCLA has no interceptions and 10 TD passes allowed this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6

UCLA has no interceptions (107 pass attempts) this season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 40.1

UCLA has no interceptions (107 pass attempts) this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 38.7

Matchup Notes for UCLA vs. Michigan State

UCLA has no interceptions and 10 TD passes allowed this season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1.7

UCLA has no interceptions and 10 TD passes allowed this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 1.7

UCLA has no interceptions and 10 TD passes allowed this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6

UCLA has no interceptions (107 pass attempts) this season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 40.1

UCLA has no interceptions (107 pass attempts) this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 38.7

Michigan State has 296 receptions in 17 games (just 17.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten skill players. UCLA’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Michigan State has 296 receptions in 17 games (just 17.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten skill players. UCLA’s defense has allowed 4.4 receptions per game to TEs since the 2024 season — T-4th-worst among FBS defenses.

Michigan State have been sacked on 30% of pass attempts (9/30) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Big Ten Offenses; Average: 7%

Michigan State’s WRs has 181 receptions in 17 games (just 10.6 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten WRs. UCLA’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan State’s WRs has 181 receptions in 17 games (just 10.6 per game) since the 2024 season — T-34th-worst among FBS WRs. UCLA’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

UCLA Offensive Stats & Trends

Michigan State has 296 receptions in 17 games (just 17.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten skill players. UCLA’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Michigan State has 296 receptions in 17 games (just 17.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten skill players. UCLA’s defense has allowed 4.4 receptions per game to TEs since the 2024 season — T-4th-worst among FBS defenses.

Michigan State have been sacked on 30% of pass attempts (9/30) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Big Ten Offenses; Average: 7%

Michigan State’s WRs has 181 receptions in 17 games (just 10.6 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten WRs. UCLA’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan State’s WRs has 181 receptions in 17 games (just 10.6 per game) since the 2024 season — T-34th-worst among FBS WRs. UCLA’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan State Offensive Stats & Trends

UCLA has no interceptions and 10 TD passes allowed this season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1.7

UCLA has no interceptions and 10 TD passes allowed this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 1.7

UCLA has no interceptions and 10 TD passes allowed this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6

UCLA has no interceptions (107 pass attempts) this season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 40.1

UCLA has no interceptions (107 pass attempts) this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 38.7

UCLA Defensive Stats & Trends

Michigan State has 296 receptions in 17 games (just 17.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten skill players. UCLA’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Michigan State has 296 receptions in 17 games (just 17.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten skill players. UCLA’s defense has allowed 4.4 receptions per game to TEs since the 2024 season — T-4th-worst among FBS defenses.

Michigan State have been sacked on 30% of pass attempts (9/30) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Big Ten Offenses; Average: 7%

Michigan State’s WRs has 181 receptions in 17 games (just 10.6 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten WRs. UCLA’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan State’s WRs has 181 receptions in 17 games (just 10.6 per game) since the 2024 season — T-34th-worst among FBS WRs. UCLA’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan State Defensive Stats & Trends

UCLA has no interceptions and 10 TD passes allowed this season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1.7

UCLA has no interceptions and 10 TD passes allowed this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 1.7

UCLA has no interceptions and 10 TD passes allowed this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6

UCLA has no interceptions (107 pass attempts) this season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 40.1

UCLA has no interceptions (107 pass attempts) this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 38.7


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